851
FXHW60 PHFO 232015
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1015 AM HST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds and mostly dry weather will prevail for at least the
next couple of days, but a weak front moving over the islands will
bring a chance of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday, mainly to
windward portions of Kauai and Oahu. Dry weather will persist after
the front dissipates by Tuesday, with light winds likely allowing
land and sea breezes to develop over land.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds and mostly dry weather will prevail this coming week,
with a couple of exceptions. A weak front moving over the islands
from the N will bring a chance of showers Sunday afternoon through
Monday, mainly to N and E facing slopes and coasts of Kauai and
Oahu, with a return to dry weather thereafter. Except for the chance
of an increase in trade winds around the middle of the week, a
nearby surface ridge will keep winds light.

After another 24 hours or so of light and variable winds and
essentially zero rainfall, a relatively weak high building NW of the
islands will push a weak frontal boundary over the islands. This
front will bring an increase in low-level moisture that will likely
fuel some light showers. The high and associated nearby ridge will
support light N to NE winds as the front gradually dissipates
through Tuesday, with land and sea breezes in sheltered areas on
land.

Strengthening ENE trade winds may reach moderate levels around mid-
week when the high moves to a position NE of the islands, but
confidence is low, with trade winds potentially diminishing by the
end of the week. Limited (windward) to no (leeward) rainfall is
expected after the front dissipates.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds with sea/land breezes are expected today and tonight.
VFR conditions should prevail, with some isolated MVFR cigs and
light showers possible over windward Big Island this afternoon.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect. AIRMET Tango may be required for
moderate upper level turbulence around 30 kft tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge just north of the waters will promote light to gentle
winds through the first half of next week. A weak front is
forecasted to approach the far northwest coastal waters Sunday
morning and dissipate as it moves over the western coastal waters
Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected preceding the
frontal passage with gentle northerly winds behind the front. Light
to moderate trade winds will build in for the second half of next
week as the surface ridge sets up to the north of the waters.

Surf along north facing shores will remain moderate through the
morning as the current moderate, medium period north- northeast
swell will slowly trend more easterly today and slowly decline
tonight and Sunday. A Marine Weather Statement is in effect for
light harbor surges, particularly at Hilo and Kahului harbor through
today. Long period forerunners from the northwest have begun to show
up along nearshore buoys and is expected to continue to fill in
through the afternoon and peak Sunday. At the peak of the swell, it
is forecasted to be just below the High Surf Advisory criteria for
north and west facing shores.

Surf along east facings shores will remain small except shorelines
exposed to the north-northeast swell through the first half of the
week. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny through the
first half of next week with mainly background energy.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KBDI values remain elevated across leeward areas, and no significant
leeward rainfall is anticipated for at least the next several days.
Relative humidity values may approach the critical 45% threshold
during the late morning and afternoon hours as a relatively dry air
mass remains in place. However, light winds will prevent critical
fire weather conditions from developing.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Birchard
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Shigesato