Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
268 FXHW60 PHFO 131322 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 322 AM HST Fri Jun 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades become strong this weekend into next week delivering limited clouds and showers mainly to windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... A elongated surface ridge north of the state is generating moderate to locally breezy tradewinds. Satellite and radar imagery show scattered clouds and showers mainly focused along windward and mauka regions for the eastern half of the state and should fill in for the western half of the state as the morning progresses. Rainfall totals for the past six hours generally ranged from 0.02 to 0.30 inches for the wetter windward around around Big Island and southeast Maui. Rainfall will remain generally light with a few showers becoming moderate around Kauai. A thin band of upper level clouds will continue to stream over the island and the associated upper level trough gradually become a weak low later today into Saturday over the state. Sunday the weak upper level low will shift westward and dry mid level ridging will fill in. Another, strong surface high will build in from the west, reinforcing moderate to breezy trades into next week. This setup should limit clouds and light to moderate showers to windward and mauka areas. && .AVIATION... Periods of SHRA is currently generating period of MVFR ceiling and visibility mainly along windward slopes. Thus, AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for all exposed and elevated windward terrain. VFR will dominate over most leeward areas, but sheltered terrain will experience isolated MVFR conditions each afternoon, especially on the Kona slopes of the Big Island. A stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will persist through today, before increasing slightly tonight into Saturday. The stable trade wind flow could produce moderate turbulence flow below 7,000 feet, leeward of mountainous terrain later today or over the weekend as winds increase which may require an AIRMET TANGO. An upper- level low developing west of Kauai may produce some light turbulence above FL300 as early as this afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure far north of the islands will remain anchored for the next several days and maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Sunday, but will likely need to be expanded in coverage and extended into early next week. Surf along south facing shores will be tiny to small through Saturday. A small, long period, south swell originating from a fetch near New Zealand will build on Sunday and help to boost surf heights through early next week. Rough and choppy surf is expected for east facing shores through the forecast period due to the fresh to locally strong trades. Tiny seasonal surf is expected for north facing shores. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Almanza AVIATION...Almanza MARINE...Thomas