525
FXHW60 PHFO 041334
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dissipating front has stalled out over the Kauai Channel
today. Expect continued wet weather across Kauai County during
this time, with periods of enhanced showers moving into Oahu.
Trade winds will begin to build back into the islands today,
strengthening into the moderate to breezy range from Saturday
onward, with periods of enhanced showers lasting through much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looking into the satellite imagery this morning, we see the
forward motion with the dissipating frontal boundary has stalled
over the Kauai Channel today as winds behind the front are no
longer driving the system eastward. Northeasterly to easterly
trade winds will bleed through the front today spreading trade
winds across the state through the day. Enhanced showers will
favor windward and mountain areas of Kauai and to a lesser degree
Oahu in this pattern. Easterly trade winds building in will begin
to push this remnant frontal boundary back westward over Kauai
later tonight into Saturday. Vog will continue to linger over most
islands through much of the day until the easterly trade winds
begin to push the Vog plume in a more westward direction away from
the smaller islands later tonight. Areas near and west of the
Kilauea Volcano on the Big Island will continue to see Vog impacts
through the week.

Elsewhere more typical easterly moderate to locally breezy trade
wind weather will return to the islands from Saturday onward.
The forecast next week continues to show a high confidence of an
easterly moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather pattern
taking shape. drifts into the islands from the north. This cloud
band is associated with the remnants of a dissipated cold frontal
band originating in the eastern Pacific. Enhanced showers next
week will favor windward and mountain areas during the Tuesday
through next Friday time period. Higher chances for showers are
likely over windward and mountain slopes during the typical
overnight to early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
A dissipating front over the western end of the state will stall
today with northeasterly trade winds strengthening over the state
from the west. Enhanced clouds and showers over Kauai and Oahu are
expected through the morning as moisture lingers along the front.
Periods of MVFR conditions are likely within the heavier showers.
The eastern half of the state will see moderate to locally breezy
southeasterly winds through the afternoon before easterly trade
winds return tonight. Localized land breezes in sheltered areas
are expected but overall, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all of Kauai and Oahu.
This could continue through the morning as clouds and showers
linger. AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate upper level
turbulence and is expected to continue through the morning.

Most areas could continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing
eruption of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact
visibilities enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A dissipating front has stalled over the Kauai Channel and will
continue to diminish through the day. Moderate to locally strong
north to northeast winds will develop around Kauai waters today,
while gentle to moderate east to southeast winds back to a more
easterly direction elsewhere. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has
been issued through tonight for waters around Kauai. The SCA will
likely need to be expanded and extended into early next week as a
large swell moves through the state Saturday, elevating seas
across the state. In addition, moderate to locally strong trades
winds are expected to reestablish across state as a strong high
builds north of the area.

A moderate, medium period north northwest swell (330-340) will
continue to fill in today. Surf along north and west facing shores
will peak near or just above advisory level later today. So far
offshore and near shore buoys remain in-line with model guidance,
but will continue to monitor to see if the swell comes in a little
larger than anticipated which may warrant a High Surf Advisory. A
large to extra large, long period swell (350-360) is still on
track to quickly build in Saturday on already elevated seas,
producing warning level surf along north facing shores with
advisory level surf across west and east facing shores that will
continue through the weekend. This swell, aside from being
hazardous to small craft, could generate harbor surges along north
facing bays and inlets.

Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny into the weekend with
mainly background energy dominating. A small, long period south swell
could fill in later over the weekend into early next week and provide
a small boost to surf along south facing shores.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually build today and
Saturday with the return of trade wind flow over and upstream of
the state. East shore surf will also get a boost from the larger
northerly swells wrapping into exposed areas.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Almanza