140
FXHW60 PHFO 100134
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 PM HST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds with land breezes can be expected through tonight.
Winds will then become light southwesterly tomorrow as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. The front should reach
Niihau and Kauai Wednesday night, then stall near Maui Thursday
night. Passing moderate showers may accompany this first front.
Winds will turn light and northerly after the front passes then
potentially turn southerly again Friday into this weekend. Another
stronger front looks to approach this weekend, and heavy rain is
possible as this front could have more upper level support.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge just to the N of the islands will gradually
weaken tonight and tomorrow as a cold front approximately 360
nautical miles NW of Kauai approaches. Light and variable winds
with local land breezes tonight should give way to light
southwesterly winds with local sea breezes tomorrow morning. Dry
conditions are expected ahead of this front with little rainfall
expected for most of the day Wednesday. The front is forecast to
approach Kauai Wednesday night, Oahu Thursday morning, and then
wash out over Maui county on Thursday evening. Showers will
generally be most abundant within the front but could form over
any island interiors during the afternoon hours with the sea
breezes. Light northerly winds can be expected behind the front,
becoming northeasterly by Friday morning with land/sea breezes.

Winds are forecast to start veering to the south by Friday
evening, then to the southwest by Saturday ahead of the next
anticipated cold front. These southerly winds will push brief
showers over south facing portions of the islands, but overall
stay light. By late Saturday into early Sunday morning, a stronger
and wetter cold front could impact the islands. The front looks
to be very moisture rich, with upper and mid level support,
stalling near or over the western half of the state. Something
worth mentioning is the fact that the upper level trough that is
driving this front southward is much stronger than we have seen so
far this season. Additionally, forcing factors such as upper
level divergence and low level convergence elevates the chances of
sustained heavy rainfall. While Sunday is still several days out,
the last few model runs have become more aligned on this
solution. The forecast has been updated to reflect this change,
with increased POPs statewide, especially for Kauai and Oahu. This
will require further monitoring for flood potential over the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light easterly background flow resulted in localized sea breezes
and low cloud build ups over the island interiors. AIRMET Sierra
is posted for tempo mountain obscurations that will likely
continue through the rest of the afternoon. VFR conditions with
brief mountain obscurations may occur across the rest of the
islands. Land breezes will clear out cloud cover tonight.

By Wednesday morning, moderate southwest winds will build west to
east across the state. A few clouds and showers will track in from
the southwest on this flow regime Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure north of Hawaii will erode from the west
as a front approaches the state from the northwest. The front
will enter the Kauai waters late Wednesday and move west to east
across the state through Thursday and stall and dissipate around
Maui County Thursday night. An increase of showers are expected
along and ahead of the front with moderate northerly winds
following behind it. Another front approaching from the northwest
will generate moderate southerly winds this weekend with an
increase of showers expected on Sunday.

Current northwest (300-320 degree) swell will be followed by a larger
northwest (310-325 degree) swell filling in tonight and peaking
during the day Wednesday. Latest buoy readings from buoy 51001 and
51101 are starting to show some new energy in the 16 to 17 second
energy bands, but seem to be running below guidance so far. Thus,
we have held off on issuing a High Surf Advisory for north and
west facing shores for now. We will continue to monitor the latest
buoy readings and we are still expecting surf near the High Surf
Advisory threshold on Wednesday. As this northwest swell slowly
declines Wednesday night, a reinforcing swell from the north-
northwest is expected on Thursday. These swells will slowly
decline into the weekend. Another moderate, long period northwest
swell (320 degree) should gradually fill in on Sunday and could
produce surf near the advisory threshold by Sunday evening.

Small, choppy east shore surf will become minimal over the next few
days as trades near and upstream become disrupted by approaching
fronts. Expect minimal background surf for south facing shores, with
a minor south-southwest pulse expected Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions should remain below critical fire
thresholds through the week with light winds and elevated RH.
Temperature inversion heights should linger around 6,000 to 7,000
feet through tomorrow.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Tsamous/Farris
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kino
FIRE WEATHER...Tsamous/Farris