290
FXHW60 PHFO 031447 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
347 AM HST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds will  prevail and maintain a dry, mostly stable land and
sea breeze regime across much of the state. A slow-moving front will
stall just west of Kauai today, resulting in enhanced shower
activity and increased cloud coverage across much of the Garden Isle
through this evening before the front weakens to a trough and
retrogrades back westward. High pressure builds northeast of the
state tomorrow, allowing moderate trades to return as well as
showers across windward and mauka areas lasting through early next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds will prevail and maintain stable and mostly dry
conditions, allowing a land and sea breeze pattern to dominant
across the Hawaiian Islands. The highlighted feature remains to be a
slow-moving front northwest of the islands that continues to
propagate toward Kauai. Latest model guidance of the GFS and ECMWF
are in decent agreement that the front will ultimately stall just
west of Kauai. That said, pre-frontal shower activity, especially
over northern slopes and interior areas of the Garden Isle could
experience over an inch of precipitation prior to the front
weakening to a trough and retrograding back westward in the absolute
wettest scenario. The latest Total Precipitable Water (PWATs)
Normalized Anomaly from the GFS and ECWMF both depict roughly 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal over Kauai as the front approaches.
This isn`t implying a widespread heavy shower event, but it is
suggesting that, even though the front is anticipated to stall west
of Kauai, it may still bring in a significant amount of moisture.

With models lining up a bit better than previous runs, confidence
has increased that this will be the most likely scenario as the
front crawls towards Kauai. Meanwhile, the remainder of the
state will remain unimpacted under the same dry, mostly stable
land and sea breeze regime through the next couple of days.

The aforementioned front also has an impact on retaining the
subtropical ridge near Kauai, leading to predominately southeasterly
background flow, as depicted by the latest observations. As a
result, this has escorted some volcanic emissions (vog) from the
most recent Kilauea activity across portions of the state. While
many of the air quality sensors across leeward Big Island show
slightly higher concentrations, the overall consensus depicts the
highest concentrations remain  west of the state and are not
significantly impacting the islands themselves. Moreover, visibility
does not seem to be restricted much either, though some haze may
still persist in low-lying areas.

The broad surface-level high pressure system well northeast of the
islands will gradually build tomorrow as the weakened front exits
the area. Trades will respond accordingly to the tightened pressure
gradient, strengthening to a more moderate pattern, further pushing
any of the remaining deeper moisture away from Kauai. Conversely,
expect a more typical trade shower pattern mainly over windward and
mauka areas across the state, prevailing through early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds persist resulting in daytime sea breezes and overnight
land breezes to occur. A slowly advancing front is expected to
stall just west of Kauai, resulting in enhanced shower activity
and increased cloud coverage which may bring periods of MVFR
conditions predominately to northern slopes and interior areas of
Kauai. Moderate trades return toward the end of the forecast
period, focusing showers across windward and mauka areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.


&&

.MARINE...
A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected stall west
of Kauai today, before weakening to a trough Thursday and
retrograding back to the west. Thursday through this weekend, a
ridge of high pressure is expected to strengthen northeast of the
region, which will allow moderate to locally strong easterly
trades. As trades increase, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will
likely be needed for the typical windier zones surrounding Maui
and the Big Island. A moderate to large NW swell could also bring
seas to SCA criteria (10 feet) Thursday night into Friday. So at
this time, a SCA for winds to 25 kt and seas 10 feet or higher
look likely by Thursday afternoon.

The current moderate, medium period northwest swell (310-330) has
been holding overnight at the nearshore buoys. Meanwhile the next
swell (310-330) reached Buoy 51101 to the northwest of the
islands around 8pm. This swell is expected to reach Kauai around
sunrise, and Oahu a little later in the morning. This is the first
in a series of northwest to north-northwest (310-340) swells that
are expected over the coming days. This swell will be reinforced
by another on Thursday that should bring surf to advisory levels
Thursday into Friday. Another slightly larger northwest swell is
expected to arrive on Friday, which will maintain the elevated
surf.

East shore surf will remain small today due to weak winds, then
become choppier by Thursday as trade winds increase from Thursday
through the weekend. Expect minimal background energy for south
facing shores through much of the week.

There is the potential for minor coastal flooding from December
4th to December 6th. Peak monthly tides combined with water levels
that are running higher than predicted could lead to minor
flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas.
Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which
will be during the early morning hours. This could also magnify
effects of the expected high surf on coastal areas around the same
time frame.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this week. Light
winds will persist through the day, with increased rainfall
probability on Kauai associated with an advancing frontal passage.
Elsewhere across the state will remain dry and mostly stable.
Moderate trades will will be below the critical fire weather
threshold Friday into early next week. The temperature inversion
heights over Maui and the Big Island will range from 6500 to 7500
feet today.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...M Ballard
FIRE WEATHER...Pierce