Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 080626

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
826 PM HST Wed Dec 7 2022

High pressure building north of the islands will bring increasingly
strong trade winds the next couple of days, delivering a few
windward showers. A slight decrease in wind speeds is expected over
the weekend.


High clouds associated with the kona low are thinning out over
the islands and as low- level trade wind clouds continue to
provide coverage along windward areas. Radar imagery depicts fast-
moving scattered showers focused along windward areas. Conditions
will become increasingly more stable and drier through tonight and
high clouds will clear as the kona low, currently 1200 miles NW of
Kauai, continues to moves W and a strong high builds N of the state.

Air quality sensors show conditions have improved throughout the
day. The UH VMAP model projects that the vog will be limited to
areas directly west of the emission source due to the combination
of a building inversion between 7000 to 8000 ft, trapping future
emissions aloft, and strong easterly transport winds through the
next couple of days.

Trade winds have strengthened a little faster than previously
thought as the robust high builds N of the state, and a ridge
aloft increases strong subsidence inversion. Thus a Wind Advisory
for areas over and downwind of terrain has been issued beginning
tonight through Friday. Wind gusts over 60 mph will occur over
leeward Kohala, and a High Wind Warning has been issued for that
area. Expect limited rainfall to favor windward slopes, though some
showers will be blown over to leeward areas from Maui to Kauai at
times. These strong winds will persist through Friday and are
expected to weaken slightly as an upper low passes S of the state
this weekend. This upper level disturbance could increase shower
chances on the Big Island late in the weekend into early next week.


A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands
will continue to produce windy conditions across the region for
the next few days. Passing showers will mainly affect windward and
mountain areas with brief MVFR/IFR conditions in the stronger

AIRMET Tango below 8000 ft remains in effect over and immediately
southwest through northwest of mountains for tempo moderate
turbulence. Strong winds will likely keep this AIRMET issued into
the weekend.


High pressure centered far northeast of the islands, along with a
strong low far northwest of Kauai, will maintain fresh to locally
strong east trade winds the next several days. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all waters to account for these
strong winds and resultant high seas. High pressure will build in
the wake of the low as it exits west through Thursday and further
enhances easterlies through late week. Speeds through the Pailolo
and Alenuihaha Channels and south of Big Island will achieve gale
force Thursday morning and persist through early Saturday. Thus,
the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning that will be in
effect from early Thursday morning through Friday night.

A moderate, medium-period northwest (310-320 degrees) swell is
continuing to fall through late Friday. A small, medium-period
reinforcement from the northwest Thursday will keep swell and
surf from completely leveling out as we head into the weekend.
Strengthening trades will significantly increase short period
heightened waves along many east-facing shores. Rough conditions
along eastern shores may near High Surf Advisory 10 foot levels
Thursday night and Friday as east trade speeds peak.


A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most leeward areas as models
continue to forecast strong gusty trade winds and low relative
humidity Thursday through Friday. In addition, many leeward
areas have yet to experience significant rainfall early this wet
season, increasing chances for critical fire weather conditions.


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Oahu South Shore-Waianae Coast-Oahu North
Shore-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Molokai Leeward-Lanai Makai-
Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-Leeward
Haleakala-Kona-South Big Island-Kohala-Big Island Interior.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Big Island Interior-Lanai Windward-
Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-
Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM HST Friday for Haleakala
Summit-Big Island Summits.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for Kohala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu
Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County
Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Big Island
Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast

Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM HST Saturday for Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.



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