891
FXUS64 KHGX 281125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Onshore winds return today, along with warmer and more humid
  air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms
  associated with our next front coming over the weekend. There is
  a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours -
  roughly a 5-15 percent chance.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front,
  opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston
  metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures
  reaching lows around or just below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Onshore flow returns for tomorrow, and with moderate to strong
flow we should see moisture rebound and PWAT values increase to
the 1.25-1.5" ahead of the next front this weekend. Rain chances
begin to increase Friday night as the initial shortwave trough
moves through. Coverage becomes more widespread Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night. Dynamics wise...the upper-level trough
does not dig too deep into the State from the Plains region, and
in fact, begins to lift NE with the approach of the cold front.
Herein lies the Marginal Risk designation for our area for
Saturday...with the departure of the parent trough, we lose
forcing and have weak ascent; however, with warm front lifting
northward and stalling over SW Louisiana and with the timing of
arrival of the cold front lining up with the peak heating...we may
see enough destabilization to support a few stronger storms. The
main hazards with these storms would be damaging winds and
potential for large hail. With the moisture pooling into the area
during the day Friday, some of these storms may produce heavy
downpours and localized flooding.

Following the FROPA, we will start to see temperatures drop
beginning Sunday as NW winds bring in a dry chilly airmass through
mid-week. Sunday`s temperatures will be in the upper 40s across
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and in the 50s to low 60s
elsewhere.

With the front appearing to stall over the coastal waters on
Sunday, could see lingering rain chances into Monday. A
reinforcing front will clear out the rain chances as a drier
airmass settles in.

NBM has been running a bit warm, so mixed in NBM25 to
bring temperatures down a little bit Monday and Tuesday as cold
air continues to funnel in...in addition LREF probabilities show
most of the area in a low to medium chance of getting above 55F
Monday and Tuesday (NBM scenario was running a few degrees
warmer). NAEFS/ECMWF percentiles also dip into the 10% range for
surface temperatures for these days, so felt a little more
confident straying from pure NBM and incorporating a bit of a
cooler option.

Nighttime temperatures will be on the chilly side as well with a
good chunk of the area falling to around or below freezing Monday
night and Tuesday night. Areas north of the Houston Metro are the
most likely to see temperatures that cold as well as rural areas
west of the metro. As stated by the previous forecaster, the
entire area has a nonzero chance of lows dipping to around or
below freezing Monday night and Tuesday night. Continue to monitor
the forecast and have a plan to protect those vulnerable to the
colder weather, pets, pipes, and plants.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions anticipated today, though we`ll see some increasing
mid-upper level cloudiness and some gusty ESE-SE winds in the
15-25kt range. Winds will probably lose their gustiness this
evening. Cloud decks will gradually lower to 3000-4000ft overnight
as low level Gulf moisture fills in. In addition, we`ll have some
upper level disturbances passing west-east thru the region
between about 23-12z. While we will probably see some returns on
radar, suspect a good bit of it will be in the form of virga (rain
evaporating before reaching the ground). Wouldn`t be too surprised
to see a few sprinkles survive to the surface as we head through
the night...but with little to no impact it`s probably not worth
mentioning at most terminal TAFs at this time, but will monitor
trends. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A small craft advisory begins on the Gulf this morning and
expands to include the bays Friday afternoon, and continues
through Saturday in advance of an incoming cold front. Periods of
unsettled weather also return to the forecast late Friday night,
peaking Saturday night just before the front pushes off the coast.
Gusty north winds are anticipated in the wake of the front, and
another small craft advisory will likely be needed for that period
as well.

Bailey/Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  57  73  41 /  20  40  80  70
Houston (IAH)  67  58  75  48 /  10  20  60  90
Galveston (GLS)  70  64  76  57 /   0  20  50  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
     morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey