Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
812 FXUS64 KHGX 191131 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry, with lower humidity Saturday. - Humidity returns Sunday along with daily diurnal storm chances into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Mid/upper ridging overhead and deep dry air will result in a Saturday that is much like the Friday that fell before it. Afternoon temperatures should be hot (well into the 90s) with lower humidity (60s dew points inland). Certainly not Pumpkin Spice weather. But also not as oppressive as recent weeks. Unfortunately this will not last, with high humidity and daily diurnally related isolated shower/thunderstorm chances returning Sunday. This pattern should hold through at least the middle portion of the upcoming week. Best chance of a shower and storm will be in our southern and coastal counties. Afternoon highs should remain well into the 90s. Global guidance strongly suggest the development of a deep layer E CONUS trough. As you may expect, the implications of this trough would be more strongly felt by our friends back east. However, there may be a weak backdoor frontal boundary that brings another round of lower humidity, and perhaps slightly less hot temperatures, by the end of the week. A plurality of global ensembles even suggest the air mass will be a tad drier and a tad less hot than the current air mass. I wouldn`t call it fall-like. But at least there are signs that we are very slowly heading in the right direction. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with E-SE winds during the daytime becoming light and variable at night. A few isolated showers and storms could develop over the nearshore Gulf waters, though all TAF sites are likely to remain dry. Isolated patchy fog cannot be ruled out during the early morning hours on Sunday. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds and 2-4 foot Gulf seas are expected through mid-week. Easterly winds may increase somewhat later in the result, resulting in a corresponding yet modest increase in the seas. There will be a daily risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 74 97 75 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 94 75 95 77 / 0 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 82 90 83 / 0 20 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self