Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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812
FXUS64 KHGX 191131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot and dry, with lower humidity Saturday.

 - Humidity returns Sunday along with daily diurnal storm chances
   into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Mid/upper ridging overhead and deep dry air will result in a
Saturday that is much like the Friday that fell before it.
Afternoon temperatures should be hot (well into the 90s) with
lower humidity (60s dew points inland). Certainly not Pumpkin
Spice weather. But also not as oppressive as recent weeks.
Unfortunately this will not last, with high humidity and daily
diurnally related isolated shower/thunderstorm chances returning
Sunday. This pattern should hold through at least the middle
portion of the upcoming week. Best chance of a shower and storm
will be in our southern and coastal counties. Afternoon highs
should remain well into the 90s.

Global guidance strongly suggest the development of a deep layer
E CONUS trough. As you may expect, the implications of this trough
would be more strongly felt by our friends back east. However,
there may be a weak backdoor frontal boundary that brings another
round of lower humidity, and perhaps slightly less hot
temperatures, by the end of the week. A plurality of global
ensembles even suggest the air mass will be a tad drier and a tad
less hot than the current air mass. I wouldn`t call it fall-like.
But at least there are signs that we are very slowly heading in
the right direction.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with E-SE
winds during the daytime becoming light and variable at night. A
few isolated showers and storms could develop over the nearshore
Gulf waters, though all TAF sites are likely to remain dry.
Isolated patchy fog cannot be ruled out during the early morning
hours on Sunday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds and 2-4 foot Gulf seas
are expected through mid-week. Easterly winds may increase
somewhat later in the result, resulting in a corresponding yet
modest increase in the seas. There will be a daily risk of
isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  74  97  75 /   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  75  95  77 /   0  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  90  83 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self