Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
906 FXUS64 KHGX 100616 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1216 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog early today. Weak frontal passage (dry) this afternoon/evening. - Another warm-up beginning Friday. Lights showers possible. - Patches to Areas of sea fog possible across the coastal waters Friday through Saturday ahead of a cold front. - Cold front moves off the coast on Sunday with cooler weather into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Light onshore flow, rising surface moisture and clear skies... all the markers for fog are present currently, so it`s likely we`ll at least see some patches with a few dense pockets early this morning up until sunrise. Radiation fog should burn off shortly afterwards with clear conditions during the daytime. We`ll see a short-lived warm up during the day with highs topping out in the 60s/70s due to a dry cold front, which is anticipated enter SE Texas this afternoon and subsequently move off the coast later tonight. We`ll see another cool evening tonight with lows for Thursday morning in the upper 30s/40s inland and 50s along the coast. This temp change will mostly affect the northern half of the cwa, where as areas along the coast will virtually see no temperature change with respect to the low. Surface high pressure passes over SE Texas, moving east of the area on Thursday. Winds will veer east to southeasterly, facilitating moisture return and WAA. Highs for Thursday should reach the 60s/lower 70s with lows for Friday morning in the upper 40s/lower 60s. Might see some patchy fog during this overnight/early morning period as well. Southerly flow and WAA will keep the warming trend in place for Friday and portions of the weekend. Highs during this period will reach the 70s with a few spots potentially seeing temps break the 80 degree mark. Early morning lows will still lean on the cool side, but warmer, reaching the 50s/60s. A few light showers could develop during this period, mainly near the coast due to a combination of WAA, speed convergence and a passing midlevel shortwave. More notably, dewpoints will be above nearshore water temperatures (lower 60s based on RTOFS) during this time frame. We may see some periods of sea fog develop over the bays/nearshore waters, which may spill over onto land, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Saturday night into the early morning hours of Sunday will be a particularly interesting time frame to watch with respect to sea fog. While a stronger cold front is slated to push off the coast during this rough time frame, moisture will likely pool out ahead of it with winds easing off as well. Timing and the extend to which water temperatures warm will be crucial as to how conditions will play out. Though, if we still have lower 60s water temperatures and the front doesn`t reach the coast till early Sunday morning (as global deterministic models currently suggest), then it`s entirely possible to see areas of dense fog sea fog gradually over the waters, gradually creeping inland leading up to the FROPA. Sunday should see cooler and drier weather in the wake of the cold front. Monday should tentatively see the coldest weather in the forecast with temperatures early in the morning dropping into the upper 30s/40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. During the daytime, highs for Monday should top out in the upper 50s/60s. High pressure moves off the east and once again we get onshore flow late Monday with WAA and moisture advection in full swing again by Tuesday. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Some potential for fog tonight, with most confidence of impact at LBX, where a TEMPO for IFR remains. Have MVFR mentions for all other TAF sites other than GLS, which will have enough wind off the Gulf to keep fog at bay. Beyond that, focus is mainly on the winds - S/SE for now, becoming light and variable overnight and coming back up as SW/WSW in the morning. Weak front moves through, shifting winds to NW/N through the afternoon and early evening. Don`t go explicitly NW yet at SGR, LBX, or GLS...but that will come next cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Patchy fog may briefly spill into portions of the upper Houston Ship Channel early this morning. Light onshore winds today will shift northeast this afternoon as a weak dry cold front pushes off the coast. Onshore winds quickly return by Thursday afternoon with moisture and rain chances rising into Friday. Will have to keep an eye out for sea fog across the nearshore waters and bays beginning on Friday morning at the absolute earliest. Friday night into Saturday morning has the greatest chances for sea fog presently, though if water temperatures are slow to recover, the worst of the sea fog may occur Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by Sunday after the front. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 39 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 45 67 54 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 54 66 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...03