Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
799 FXUS64 KHGX 022358 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 558 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northerly winds and elevated seas will lead to hazardous marine conditions through this afternoon. - Chillier weather will persist through Wednesday with overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s with portions of the Piney Woods possibly dropping to near freezing. - Rain chances return Wednesday night through Friday morning due to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Temperatures have yet to break out of the 40s across SE Texas. A few sites are close to the mark (Columbus at 49F this hour). Clearing skies will enhance radiational cooling for tonight and allow temperatures to drop into the 30s to low 40s area wide. A few spots in the northern Piney Woods may dip to or around freezing. High pressure will move off to the east on Wednesday and southerly flow will bring the return of a warmer and more humid airmass...just in time for a series of shortwaves to move through. A little more on that shortly. Wednesday`s highs will recover into the 60s for most of the area, with the coastal locations breaking into the low 70s. With the return of moisture anticipate PWAT values to increase to around 1.5" in response. A series of shortwaves will move through Wednesday night through Friday and interact with a deep layer of moisture. This will bring an increase in showers with isolated thunderstorms for Southeast Texas (higher probabilities for coastal areas). Expecting generally widespread light to moderate rainfall; however, could see some showers produce heavier rain rates that may led to minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. WPC does have the coastal areas (approximately Galveston and northward along the coast) in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. A cold front is projected to move through Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s across the area. Southerly/Southeasterly winds will return Saturday and bring temperatures back up into the 60s area wide through the weekend. Another front is progged to arrive sometime late weekend into early next week; however, will avoid getting too hung up on timing with it being late in the period. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions along with light VRB winds are expected tonight. Cigs will lower to MVFR on Wed and winds will turn E to SE and increase to 5-10KT. Some models show a weak llvl jet moving over SE TX in the afternoon and could lead to gusts of around 20KT at times. By the end of the TAF period, we may see some showers starting to develop inland. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise after 00-06Z Thu, thus expect the mention of SHRA/TSRA near the end of the next TAF period. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Winds continue to decrease this afternoon. Buoy 19 currently reporting gusts to around 15 kts and waves around 5 feet. The Small Craft Advisory will continue for the next couple of hours. Conditions will improve Tuesday night into Wednesday with light to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly winds. Another approaching upper-level disturbance will bring increasing chances of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday evening. A coastal low is expected to develop on Thursday inducing moderate to strong northeasterly winds Thursday morning through Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 37 61 50 53 / 0 10 70 50 Houston (IAH) 40 64 54 58 / 0 20 100 70 Galveston (GLS) 52 70 56 63 / 0 30 100 90 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Bailey