Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
467 FXUS64 KHGX 290458 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1158 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some patchy fog possible overnight and early morning hours. - Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east today. - Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 With lingering low-lvl moisture and light, variable winds, patchy fog will be possible through the early morning hours, particularly over the Brazos Valley area. Rain chances diminish today as a drier air mass filters in from the east. However, PW values will remain somewhat elevated across our far western counties; combined with weak impulses of energy aloft, a few light showers will remain possible in those areas. Given the abundant cloud cover, today`s highs will generally remain the low 80s. Moisture influx strengthens again on Friday as disturbances aloft move north-northeastward across the region. This will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the best chances confined to areas west of the I-45 corridor. Rain chances continue overnight Friday and become more widespread on Saturday as PW values surge into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range. Most of this activity should gradually taper off by early Saturday evening as the main mid/upper lvl shortwaves lift out of the region. Rain and storm chances decrease by Sunday thanks to increasing subsidence aloft associated with a building upper-lvl ridge to our west. Attention then turns to early next week as a deepening longwave trough traverses the western CONUS. Deterministic models and ensemble means continue to show a spread regarding the evolution, strength and timing of this system and its associated FROPA. The most progressive guidance brings the front through early Tuesday, whereas slower solutions (like the ECMWF) delay the front until late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Given this uncertainty, the exact timing as well as any thunderstorm or severe weather potential across Southeast Texas remains unclear at this time. Regardless of timing differences, a FROPA appears likely next week, bringing rain chances followed by slightly cooler conditions in its wake. Specific details will become clearer as guidance comes into better agreement in future forecast updates. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR conditions prevail across most terminals overnight. However, increased chances of BR/FG, during the sunrise hrs are present around CXO, UTS, CLL, which could bring reduced VIS/CIGS to MVFR or even occasional IFR levels. Light and variable winds overnight will pick back up to 5-10 kts out of the ESE after mid/late morning. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow will continue at least through Saturday, leading to occasional moderate onshore winds and seas in the 3 to 4 ft range. A few light showers possible today, but the best chances arrive Friday and Saturday as different weak disturbances move through the region. Winds become more southeasterly after Sunday and may become moderate at times. Will continue to monitor conditions next week as elevated winds and building seas will be possible ahead of a FROPA possibly arriving in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 82 63 79 / 0 20 10 20 Houston (IAH) 65 83 65 81 / 0 10 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 72 80 71 79 / 0 0 0 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...CMW MARINE...JM