Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
702 FXUS64 KHGX 281148 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 648 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Coverage of the daily rounds of showers and storms decrease for the next couple days, with a particularly noticeable dip today. Storm coverage looks to rise modestly on Friday, especially east of I-45. - Another weak front pushes into SE Texas Saturday, bringing greater rain chances over the weekend, but also with modestly cooler temperatures from the rain and cloud cover increase. - Rain chances decrease again next week as drier air filters in behind the front. "How dry?" for Labor Day depends on how far the front manages to push this weekend, and how much drier air can work its way in behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Not a whole lot has changed in the big picture expectations for the forecast - largely seasonable, but hedging hotter and drier for the late work week, followed by a weekend with notably higher coverage of daily showers and storms as a front makes its way into the area. Then...we reach the portion of the forecast with less confidence, but we will generally see storm coverage decrease again for the holiday early next week along with some decrease in humidity (and overnight lows!) as some drier air tries to filter in. The exact magnitude of is still our primary point of uncertainty, which is likely not a surprise in dealing with a late summer front. This time of year, it`s always questionable just how effective these "cold" fronts really can be. Digging into that early week period a little more, it does seem there is a little more confidence in seeing the front eventually make it to the Gulf, with a very strong emphasis on the "eventually" part. It may take until sometime Sunday night or early Monday for that to happen. But, in the LREF cluster analysis, the upper pattern does not significantly vary much from the grand ensemble mean, and really all of the clusters do at some point, for at least a little time, bring on offshore wind to all of Southeast Texas. This helps me remain confident in keeping rain chances higher through the weekend. While that character will still be more like the diurnal pattern with scattered to numerous showers and storms, the front will provide a solid focus for beefing up that coverage of storms. Another way in which the cluster analysis gives us some more mixed opinion is in how effectively we see drier air filter into the area from the north in the wake of the front. For those who`d like a break from the humidity, the primary cluster, responsible for 42 percent of the LREF members, remains fairly optimistic in getting some drier air to those well inland - congrats, upper Brazos Valley! The mean dewpoints for that cluster dip into the upper 50s in our northwest by Monday afternoon. Even the coast sees dewpoints dip into the 60s, which isn`t nearly as big a difference, but still at least a noticeable change. On the flip side, though, the other three clusters all remain fairly humid. In those, cumulatively representing the other 58 percent of LREF members, nobody`s seeing dewpoints below 60, and the most humid cluster keeps dewpoints in the middle 60s to middle 70s area-wide. So...what does that mean for our holiday and early next week? Well, rain chances should go down, especially inland. Shower and storm development could get quite isolated, particularly if the primary cluster and most likely single scenario plays out. However, that outcome is *not* yet more likely than the rest of the field, so I continue to hedge with lower PoPs carrying us into the middle of next week. Regardless, I`m fairly confident that we`ll see a cooler, drier, less rainy first half of the new week, it`s just a matter of magnitude. For everyone who likes it on the hot, sticky, stormier side, we should see some return to that later in the week as onshore flow returns, but that`s beyond the scope of the forecast for now. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 CXO experiencing MVFR VSBYs. All other sites at VFR. CXO should return to VFR shortly after sunrise, and expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period for all sites. Isolated showers are ongoing this morning, generally remaining along the coastal reas. Have included PROB30 for thunderstorms at HOU/SGR/LBX. Not anticipating activity to spread north of I-10 at this time, so have opted to exclude IAH. Winds will generally be light and out of the southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week along with a continued daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. A frontal boundary is expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend. Winds may switch to a more northerly direction by Sunday behind the front for a brief stretch early next week, before turning back to being broadly onshore later next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 75 / 10 0 30 30 Houston (IAH) 93 79 95 78 / 20 0 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 88 83 90 82 / 40 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Luchs