173
FXUS64 KHGX 141727
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

We`ve got ourselves a clear radar screen early this morning, and
the satellite shows more typical nocturnal stratus rather than us
warily watching thunderstorm development. After multiple days of
dealing with strong pulses of storms dictated by potent shortwaves
supporting mesoscale convective systems, we`ll transition back to
a more typical summer pattern for the next several days.

For the short term more specifically, when I say "typical summer",
I mean the kind with a persistent diurnal cycle of showers and
storms. Coastal showers in the morning, then we see isolated to
scattered storms through the afternoon. The preferred region for
storms to pop up will gradually shift inland through the afternoon
along with the sea breeze boundary. As the sun goes down, storms
will fade out and we clear out later in the evening. Late
overnight, nocturnal development over the Gulf begins, and we
begin the cycle anew.

This occurring daily is pretty high confidence. An upper ridge
will be building over the Desert Southwest, leaving us underneath
a broadly troughy pattern over Southeast Texas. The lower
midlevel heights should generally correspond to some more
instability and less capping, and also leave us in the path for
continued shortwave troughs/vort maxes aloft. Both will create an
environment broadly supportive of this diurnal rain cycle.

For today, one of those potent shortwave troughs over the
Mississippi Valley looks to drag southwest back towards our area,
and these lower heights aloft will help juice up storms a bit
today. Combined with ample moisture over the area, we could be
looking at some localized flooding issues crop up, and the entire
area finds itself in a marginal risk area for excessive rain,
which is a threat level 1 of 4 designation.

Tomorrow, though, we should finally start to settle back into a
range that`s closer to "routine", where most all storms of the day
will provide manageable amounts of rainfall. Of course, because
this is Southeast Texas, even on these days, flood risk isn`t
zero. But, at least, it will be more of the character where any
flooding issues will be very localized, and occur if we have the
poor luck to get the strongest storm of the day hang out over a
particularly vulnerable spot.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Multiple rounds of showers and storms remain in the forecast through
next week as the mid-level ridge breaks down and a robust shortwave
trough deepens as it approaches from the west. With PWAT values in
the 1.5-2.0+ range, showers and thunderstorms will have plenty of
moisture to work with. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the majority of the work week.

Highs through the week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through
the week. The combination of these temperatures and increased
humidity will result in heat indices in the 100-108F range through
much of the week. Lows each night will be mild and muggy with
temperatures in the 70s inland to low 80s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The latest forecast assumes the atmosphere remains on the stable
side for the rest of the afternoon. The VCSH mentioned in most
inland TAFs is more or less a "bet hedger" just in case things
manage to destabilize more than expected, allowing for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA. But for now, we are leaning in the more stable
direction. Rain with a few rumbles of thunder will linger near the
coast over the next couple of hours.

There is moderately high confidence in MVFR cigs north of the IAH
overnight and into tomorrow morning. The confidence in forecasts
cigs in the vicinity of IAH, HOU, and SGR is much lower. For now,
we are going with borderline VFR/MVFR conditions. Chance of rain
increases again by mid/late morning tomorrow. And once again,
there will likely be TSRA. However, the timing of the TSRA is
uncertain. We lean towards it occurring in the afternoon. But
could not rule out storms in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Seas will continue to trend down overnight into Saturday. Light to
moderate onshore flow will continue over the next several days along
with daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  90  75  90 /  10  40  20  30
Houston (IAH)  76  91  77  90 /  20  60  20  60
Galveston (GLS)  81  88  81  88 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams