Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
578 FXUS66 KHNX 231008 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 208 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dense Fog Advisory issued for the San Joaquin Valley valid from 3 AM through 10 AM Sunday morning. Chances for fog each subsequent morning through next week. 2. Temperatures near to just below season averages through the next week. Moderate probability for freezing temperatures in the Mojave Desert early next week, high probability for the Sierra Nevada. 3. Indications for a low pressure system over the western US to end the month, though uncertainty remains for exact location and impacts for central California. && .DISCUSSION... A stable pattern is setting up for central California this morning, with a weak ridge building in over the region in the wake of a cutoff low pressure system currently making its way through the Desert Southwest. Over the coming days, a jet streak is anticipated to pass through the Pacific Northwest, but will miss California due to the aforementioned ridge strengthening over the state. With more stable conditions over the area, and increased surface moisture from recent precipitation, fog development is likely (60 to 70 percent chance to occur) in the San Joaquin Valley during the overnight and early morning periods. As such, a Dense Fog Advisory is valid for much of the valley areas from 3 AM to 10 AM Sunday morning. This pattern will also maintain temperatures near season averages for much of the upcoming week, albeit with a moderate probability (40 to 50 percent) for morning lows below freezing Tuesday morning in the Mojave Desert due to cooler northwesterly flow associated with the jet stream. Looking towards the end of the month, ensemble clusters continue to express favorable certainty for a low pressure trough to track drop southward into the western United States from western Canada. Though, while these clusters showed a moderate probability for precipitation for much of central California yesterday, the focus has turned more towards the Sierra. Current ensemble output from the NBM continues to show a 40 to 50 percent probability for 24 hour precipitaton greater than 0.01", however probs have decreased to 20 to 30 percent for the valley areas. This is primarily due to a shift in the location of the trough from the clusters eastward, indicating a cold, but drier system than one that would be centered west of our area. Still, this potential system is worth watching develop over the next week as around 40 percent of the cluster members indite a wetter pattern for central California, opposed to the 60 percent showing a continuation of drier conditions. && .AVIATION... 50 to 60 percent chance for LIFR conditions, primarily for the areas of the San Joaquin Valley around KHJO and KVIS between 11Z and 18Z Sun due to fog development; 30 to 40 percent chance for the northern valley areas including KMCE, KMER, and KMAE during the same time period. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Sunday November 23 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ301-302- 305>307-309>311-314-334. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford