600
FXUS66 KHNX 262018
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
118 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Above average temperatures will continue today, with 100
degree heat persistent at many locations. Temperatures will
cool slightly on Thursday, but remain above normal.

2. There is a 5 to 20 percent probability for thunderstorms
this afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest.

3. Winds pick up on this evening through Friday morning with a
80 to near 100 percent chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or higher
along the Mojave Desert Slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect
from this evening through Friday morning.

4. Maximum temperatures are expected to rise back up to well
into the triple digits over the lower elevations by next
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The ridge that has provided the triple digit heat the past few
days has nudged over to the four corners region this afternoon.
A series of upper level waves move through the Pacific Northwest
keeping a trough pattern over most of California. This provides
a break from the triple digits for a short period. As the
calendar flips the page to July the eastern Pacific ridge
builds into the Golden State. The ridge centers over the Bay
area and the rest of the state by the holiday cranking up the
heat again.

The impacts this afternoon and tonight are the Mojave Slope
wind. The wind will continue to build through the afternoon and
ramp up during the overnight hours. The probability of exceeding
45 mph for the region continues 80 to near 100 percent for the
Highway 58/14 junction near the town site of Mojave and along
the Highway 14 corridor. Otherwise, concerns focus on fire
weather issues discussed below.

Thursday the focus remains on the Mojave Slope wind with a lull
during the day picking back up in the afternoon and especially
during the night time hours. The probabilities again for 45 mph
continue 80 to near 100 percent for the aforementioned regions.
In the San Joaquin Valley, it will be a bit cooler in relative
terms, the probabilities of exceeding (PoE) 100 degrees is less
than 20 percent. The focus moves down to the 95 degree mark and
the PoE ranges from 20 to 30 percent north of Fresno and Fresno
south 60 to 80 percent.

Friday through Sunday is a relaxed period of weather with PoE of
100 continuing below 20 percent for the north end of the San
Joaquin Valley and 30 to 55 percent for the central and southern
valley.

Monday through Thursday the fourth of July. The PoE of 100
degrees increases each day through the period. Monday the range
is 60 to 80 percent and by Thursday it is 65 to 85 percent. Now
moving the bar up to 105 degrees for the PoE on Thursday the
range is 25 to 50 percent. The heat risk for Wednesday and next
Thursday moves into the category of 3 (major) with some 4 or
(extreme) showing for the urban areas. This will have to be
monitored for a trend over the next day or two for any excessive
heat products for the extended holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
Sierra Nevada crest between 20Z and 24Z today. Wind gusts above
35 KT possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes after 03Z Thu.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several fires burning from the dry thunderstorms earlier this
week. The cooler flow is also a drier flow. This is maintaining
relative humidities in the teens for the San Joaquin valley
during the afternoon and overnight recoveries only in the 35 to
50 percent range. The wind is not settling down until the very
early morning hours. This combined with the low RH recovery is
creating the ability of any fires to take advantage of the
terrain driven winds to continue to move during the nighttime
hours. The daily trend looks to continue through the weekend.
Then looking into next week the heat comes back up along with
continued low to poor relative humidity. The best news is that
the wind is expected to be lighter heading into the holiday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/25/2024 15:50
EXPIRES: 06/26/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
IDSS....EW

weather.gov/hanford