963
FXUS64 KHUN 141213
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
713 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Upper level disturbances continue to rotate around the base of a
surface low over southern Illinois/Indiana and ahead of a SW
stretching trough axis associated with it. The trough axis
currently stretches from southern Illinois/Indiana through western
Tennessee and westward across central Arkansas.

These disturbances aloft continue to fire rounds of shower and
thunderstorm development over east central Arkansas, northern
Mississippi, and western Tennessee primarily. However, as they
have tried to move into NW Alabama, the have been falling apart.
The earlier convection during the day and evening on Friday has
really worked over the airmass and there is very little
instability present (even aloft), so this makes sense.

However, as some stronger forcing with these shortwaves start to
move into northwestern Alabama around daybreak at least some rain
and maybe a few thunderstorms could develop. However, shear
continues to be very weak even around daybreak and into the day
on Saturday. That being said, models do show decent instability
developing. So, it looks pretty likely that we will see fairly
widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Again, shear is very weak, so likely the area will see
just normal thunderstorm activity that could produce frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

This activity will likely linger into the early evening hours
before dissipating.  In the wake of evening precipitation, lows
will fall into the 65-70F range once again, with patchy fog
possible across much of the region. A similar convective scenario
may very well unfold during the day on Sunday, although weakly
confluent flow aloft in the wake of the decaying mid-level wave
could limit storm coverage compared to previous days and activity
may be focused south of the TN River as a slightly drier low-level
airmass may filter into northern portions of the CWFA.

During the period from Sunday night-Monday night, light SSW flow
will return in the low-levels as surface pressures begin to fall
across the central High Plains and little (if any) impact is
expected from a separate area of low pressure that will evolve
across the southern Mid-Atlatic states before lifting
northeastward. In the mid/upper-levels, a broad weakness in the
height field will remain intact from the Mid-MS Valley
southwestward into the northwestern Gulf (between the Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a strengthening high over the southwestern
U.S./northwest Mexico), and this will maintain generally light SW
flow aloft, sustaining PWATs in the 1.8-2" range. Thus, in the
absence of synoptic scale forcing for ascent, we expect coverage
of showers/thunderstorms to be greatest on Monday
afternoon/evening, with the strongest cells exhibiting similar
threats of gusty outflow winds, lightning and heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Guidance from the most recent suite of global models suggests
that deep-layer southwest flow will gradually strengthen across
the TN Valley throughout the first half of the extended period, as
a pronounced shortwave trough (riding along the southern flank of
the stronger mid-latitude westerlies to our north) will initiate
a deepening surface low that will track from the MO Valley on
Wednesday into the Canadian maritime provinces by the end of the
period. However, at this point, shear appears unsupportive of
organized convection through mid-week, with a fairly high coverage
of mainly diurnally-initiated convection anticipated both
Tuesday/Wednesday. There are some indications that the risk for an
organized/severe convective system (dropping into the region from
the northwest) may increase at some point on Thursday as westerly
flow aloft will strengthen with the passage of the mid-latitude
shortwave trough to our north. However, in the wake of this
disturbance, a strengthening 500-mb high is predicted to build
across much of the southeastern CONUS, resulting in lower rain
chances and hotter temperatures (with lingering high dewpoints)
from Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will move east and affect the KMSL
terminal through 15Z. Some TSRA could occur and lower VSBYS/CIGS
to MVFR or IFR levels. This timing should be a bit later at KHSV,
mainly between 14Z and 16Z. Then expect a break in the -TSRA
activity before additional development occurs late this morning
into the afternoon hours. This activity may end by 15/02Z or
15/03Z, but confidence is low concerning this part of the
forecast. Winds may keep fog from forming late tonight, so left
that out for now.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW