754
FXUS64 KHUN 200603
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1203 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 914 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - Showers/storms return to the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening
   primarily north of the TN River.

 - Additional showers/storms are forecast Friday afternoon through
   the overnight hours with a low chance some could become strong.

 - Cloudy and mostly dry weekend (rain chances less than 20%) is
   forecast with the next system to monitor moving in on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 914 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Despite upper level ridging remaining prevalent over our area, a
few showers have formed in NW AL. These are not forecast to be
long-lived and should dissipate within the next hour or so.
Patchy fog has also developed in some areas, bringing visibilities
down to 1-2 miles. Additional fog development is likely, however,
low stratus should mitigate widespread dense fog formation. If
fog overcomes the cloud cover, a Dense Fog Advisory may be
considered. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly after
sunrise (by 8-9 AM CT). Thursday, a boundary is forecast to set
up in the northern portions of our coverage area along a moisture
gradient. This will result in a low- medium chances (20-40%) of
showers/storms, primarily north of the TN River during the evening
hours. With these showers/storms, there is a low chance of some
becoming strong with a threat of gusty winds as CAPE reaches
300-500 J/kg with low level lapse rates around 7 C/km and a
surplus of wind shear. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to
upper 70s with morning lows in the 50s. These temperatures are
about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 914 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A lull in rainfall is forecast to occur Friday morning before
medium rain chances return Friday afternoon into the evening as an
upper level trough shifts eastward over the area. There is
disagreement in the recent CAMs, with most of them keeping the
widespread rainfall both north and south of the area and only
allowing a few showers/storms to form through the TN Valley
(primarily in southern middle TN). Any showers/storms that do form
have a very low chance of becoming strong as model soundings show
a cap in place- limiting instability. We will continue to monitor
this system through the end of the work week as new hi-res
guidance is introduced. Showers will likely come to a gradual end
on Saturday morning, leaving a cloudy and mostly dry weekend in
their wake.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 914 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The long term forecast will be focused on the passage of a surface
cyclone and associated cold front on Tuesday. Through the weekend
and into the beginning of the work week, A mid level cut off low
will deepen and drop along the pacific coast before progressing
northeast through the CONUS. Ahead of its arrival, we will find
ourself between troughing to our SE and ridging to our north.
Unfortunately the two competing regimes will lead to little
changes in airmass in place meaning more days of partly to mostly
overcast conditions, low (10-30%) rain chances, highs in the 60s
and 70s and muggy dewpoints in the 50s and 60s through the start
of the work week.

Mid range models are in good agreement in bringing the front into the
TN Valley on Tuesday however still lack agreement regarding the finer
thermodynamic details and the evolution of surface cyclone once
it reaches the eastern CONUS. A few trends are becoming apparent
in the models that will make this system worth watching for severe
weather potential. First, we will maintain a very moist boundary
layer leading up to the passage of the front. Additionally, the
synoptic scale of the front will favor the presence of sufficient
bulk shear. With these two parameters present, it won`t take much
instability or forcing to support some stronger storms within the
larger area of rain. For now, stuck with blended guidance bringing
in 50-60% rain and thunder chances with the front on Tuesday
morning with 20-30% rain chances lingering behind the front
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Visibilities and CIGs are dropping across north Alabama and will
continue to drop through the night into early Thursday morning.
IFR to LIFR conditions are therefore anticipated at both terminals
by about 9Z. Conditions are then forecast to improve to low-end
VFR by the early afternoon, but chances of showers and storms
return by this time as well. Low VIS and CIGs could be realized in
the stronger/heavier showers. Much of this activity then looks to
shift north by the late afternoon/early evening. As for winds,
calm winds overnight will become southwesterly and increase to
only around 5 knots or so during the day. Light to calm winds will
again develop by the evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...26