176
FXUS64 KHUN 021903
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
203 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from 20-50%
   today and tonight to 40-60% by Saturday afternoon. Lightning
   and brief heavy rainfall will be the main impacts from the
   storms.

 - A fairly widespread coverage of rain (and some embedded
   thunderstorms) is expected from early Sunday morning through
   much of the day. The risk for flash and areal flooding will be
   greatest during this period.

 - A cold front will usher a drier airmass into the region early
   Monday morning, which will remain in place for the rest of the
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A large area of rain and some thunderstorms continue to push
northeast over eastern Arkansas/NW Mississippi into western
Tennessee still at 2 PM. It has had a hard time moving east into
NW Alabama so far this afternoon.

Most mesoscale guidance does have a fairly good handle on this
activity and move it into NW Alabama and our southern middle
Tennessee counties between 5 and 7 PM this afternoon. Most
guidance keeps the bulk of it just affecting western parts of that
area through 7 PM.

PWATS are already between 1.5 (7 AM OHX sounding) and 1.8 (7 AM
BMX sounding) inches. Some elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg is seen
in both soundings. With a good amount of heating expected much of
the day, expect this instability to become surface based and
increase along with low level lapse rates. However, shear remains
very weak in forecast guidance. Expect some thunderstorms could
develop, but should remain fairly weak overall. DCAPE values
approach 600 J/KG...but instability looks a bit too weak to
realize stronger thunderstorm microbursts even.

Most CAMS tend to decrease the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this evening as we lose daytime heating. This makes
sense given how weak the overall forcing will be aloft. That being
said, some isolated to scattered chances of showers or thunderstorms
could linger into the early evening hours. Lows should remain
warm due to the moist low level moisture advected into the area.
Temperatures look to only drop into the 65 to 70 degree range on
Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The front in much of the guidance shifts the surface front
associated with the weakening longwave trough axis into portions
of NW Alabama Saturday morning. CAPE looks a bit higher on
Saturday afternoon, due to higher dewpoints over the area and
morning sunshine. Again, very little shear to speak of. DCAPE
looks maybe a bit higher on Saturday afternoon maybe climbing to
between 500 and 800 J/KG. However, again SBCAPE does not look
impressive enough to warrant stronger thunderstorm development.
PWATS will be very high, so the heavier rainfall threat seems to
be more in play later in the day on Saturday as a re-enforcing
longwave trough axis swings southeast into the Tennessee Valley.
Highs should be cooler only reaching the lower to mid 80s and heat
index much more tolerable due to the effects of increased cloud
cover and afternoon precipitation.

The stronger forcing aloft with the amplifying longwave trough
axis really kicks in late Saturday night into Sunday. Lows should
remain very low dropping only into the 65 to 70 degree range
again. With high PWATS around 2.00 inches or higher, some heavier
rainfall due to training could occur. WPC has issued a day 3
slight excessive rainfall outlook (level 2 out of 4) for possible
flooding concerns Sunday morning through the evening hours on
Monday. Confidence is low in the flooding potential given the best
forcing should near and south of the Birmingham, AL area closer
to the surface low over southeastern Louisiana. Highs on Sunday
should be notably cooler, only climbing into the 75 to 80 degree
range mainly.

Expect scattered showers could linger into the evening hours on
Sunday, but drier air near and to the west of the trough axis may
limit this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Global models suggest that a reinforcing surface high will shift
eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region on
Monday and Tuesday, with moderate N-NE flow veering to the SE as
pressures begin to rise to the east of the central/southern
Appalachians. Although a temporary increase in clouds (and perhaps
a few light showers) may occur at the onset of this regime on
Tuesday, a drier airmass will likely return from the east for the
last couple of days of the forecast period. Afternoon highs will
remain in the u70s-m80s, with overnight lows in the m40s-l50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast at KHSV through 10Z and at
KMSL through 14Z. There is a low chance of a SHRA or TSRA this
afternoon through Saturday morning, but higher confidence exists
in northwest AL including KMSL from 21-23Z. Otherwise, scattered
to broken layers at or above 040agl are expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17