909
FXUS64 KHUN 041152
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
552 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 259 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

 - Today, high chances for showers continue with a low chance for
   strong to severe thunderstorms.

 - Widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
   up to 3 inches (mainly in NW Alabama) is expected which may
   result in flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Widespread showers continued across the greater Tennessee Valley
as of the overnight. Rainfall totals so far ranged from a few
hundreds of an inch to 3/4 of an inch. These showers were
occurring east of an approaching cold front. That boundary was
located from near St Louis, Memphis, near Jackson MS, and west of
New Orleans. A line of convection (mainly heavier showers)
preceded the front. So far, showers with the front have been quiet
regarding electrical activity. That said, have seen some
instances of lightning occurring in some of the heavier showers,
from SW Mississippi to north of the Ohio River. VERY mild
temperatures also prevailed despite it being early November, with
readings ranging from the mid 60s to 70 degrees, with SE-S winds
of 5-15 mph.

With dewpoints ranging only a degree or so lower, it makes for an
obviously unstable environment. Shorter-term model output all
show an uptick in instability values as we go into the daytime.
Current surface based CAPES of a few hundred J/Kg rise into the
upper hundreds to 1500 J/Kg in the mid/late morning and this
afternoon ahead of the front. So in a decently sheared
environment with shear of 30-40kt, and helicity values above
150m/s, we cannot totally rule out strong storms with convection
preceding and accompanying the front. SPC see this potential with
a Marginal Severe Risk (1 out of 5) from far eastern and NE
Alabama and adjacent Middle Tennessee and eastward. The risk of
strong storms should occur from west to east from 7-10 AM into the
mid afternoon over our eastern areas. Main threats posed would be
strong to damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

A potential for heavy rainfall is another concern. Most of the
forecast area is in Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) of excessive rain.
This could especially become an issue should convection develops
further, which will increase rainfall amounts. At the moment, we
have a broadbrush from an inch to 1.5" across the area. An uptick
in rain rates, should greater destabilization occurs could rise
to around 3". And despite cloudy skies, high rain chances, and it
is early Nov, high temperatures today should rise into lower to
maybe mid 70s. Normal highs this time of year are in the upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Wednesday night looks like a good setup for widespread and maybe
dense fog. Winds are expected to become light behind the departed
front and clear skies in the evening with some increasing cloud
cover overnight are expected. Lows should drop into the 45 to 50
degree range west of the I-65 corridor and only into the 55 to 60
degree range further east. A second upper low quickly moves east
and merges with the upper low over the central Great Lakes region
into Thursday. This pushes a dry front right into and through the
area. It will bring much cooler air southeast into the area
behind it into the upcoming weekend. Highs on Thursday with more
sunshine will likely climb into the lower 70s, despite some very
weak cold air advection. With clear skies and light winds
expected, temperatures will be able to fall into the lower to mid
40s in many areas Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Stronger cold air advection will occur Friday afternoon into
Friday night. This should keep highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s, despite abundant sunshine. Lows should drop into the upper
30s to lower 40s primarily with northerly winds between 5 and 10
mph. The winds should keep frost from forming in most areas. During
the day on Saturday, cold air advection and some cloud cover will
keep highs from climbing above the upper 50s to lower 60s.

We may be talking about our first taste of temperatures dropping
to around freezing or just below Saturday night. It will truly
feel a bit on the chilly side.

Temperatures begin to moderate slowly Sunday into Monday, as a
more zonal flow aloft develops. Highs should climb back into the
lower 60s while low will remain in the lower 30s to around 40
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Numerous showers and a few embedded t-storms preceding an eastward
moving cold front continued heading NNE 15-20kt across the TN
Valley. This activity, located between KPAH/KOWB in western KY,
to east of KMKL and KJAN. This boundary should reach KMSL ~14-15Z,
KHSV ~18-18Z, and far NE AL ~21Z. Model guidance hinting that
destabilization could occur as the day progresses. This could
result in thunderstorm development preceding or accompanying the
front. Shower activity should wind down from west to east as the
front passes. Minimums bordering on VFR/MVFR are expected before
the front, with reductions to IFR or lower in the heaviest
showers. SE winds will veer to the south this morning, then S-SW
in the late morning and afternoon - mainly at 5-15kt. Winds this
evening should become light/variable. The light winds, decreasing
clouds, and humidity environment could set the stage for the
development of fog tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB