705
FXUS64 KHUN 151552
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
952 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 951 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Gusty southwest winds 20-25 mph this afternoon.

 - Cooler temperatures expected Sunday night behind a dry cold
   front.

 - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Tue night
   through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 951 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Satellite imagery shows an area of mid level clouds nearly
stationary stretching from central TN down into north-central and
northwest AL. Some high cirrus clouds also continue to drift south
and east across the local forecast area. However, despite the
cloud cover, sfc southwesterly flow has resulted in temperatures
rising into the upper 50s in northeast AL and low to mid 60s
further west as of 9am. Latest observations show the cloud deck
eroding from the south, therefore by this afternoon expect a mix
of sun and clouds. The biggest weather concern today are winds
gusting 20-25 mph this afternoon as a 850mb jet streak moves
overhead. Temperature top out in the mid to upper 70s, around 10
degrees above normal for this of year.

Wind gusts will subside a little overnight, but we can still
expect winds 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph through daybreak. This
will prevent any fog from forming. It will also result in a mild
night with overnight lows only dropping down into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)
Issued at 951 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

As a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region into
the Northeast, a cold front to its south will drop southward and
push into the Southeast. With the lack of moisture ahead of it,
our dry forecast will continue on Sunday as the front pushes
across the local forecast area. Temperatures Sunday afternoon
will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s prior to the frontal
passage. A cooler and drier airmass begins to filter in Sunday
evening making for a much colder night as temperatures fall into
the upper 30s by Monday morning. The cooler weather will be
short lived as upper level ridging begins to build back into the
Southeast on Monday. However, WAA advection will take some time as
afternoon highs on Monday rise into the mid 60s, which is near
climatological normals for mid November. Some ensemble guidance
has a weak shortwave passing through Tennessee Monday evening, but
the trends continue to hold any precip areas just north of the
local forecast area. Therefore, maintained the dry forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Global models continue to indicate that a dampening mid-level
trough will accelerate eastward over the Mid-Atlantic states and
offshore Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the decaying surface wave
predicted to shift into the southern Appalachians. Weak low-level
confluence in conjunction with the movement of the low coupled
with diurnal warming and the return of dewpoints in the u50s-l60s
may support development of showers and some thunderstorms
(particularly across the northern half of the region) on Tuesday.
However, it appears as if a layer of stable air in the mid-levels
will limit CAPE and keep the risk the risk for organized
convection rather low (in spite of marginally favorable mid-level
WNW flow of 35-45 knots and a WSW low-level jet of 30-35 knots).

Present indications are that the remnant confluence axis may
drift southward into the region on Tuesday night before returning
northward on Wednesday in response to lee cyclogenesis across the
southern High Plains that will become more pronounced with time as
an amplified southern stream trough ejects out of the
southwestern CONUS. Although low clouds and some showers will be
possible in this pattern, the greatest concentration of rain and
thunderstorms (especially from Wednesday night into Thursday) will
be displaced to our west and north (closer to the effective warm
front).

During the period from Thursday night into Friday, an area of low
pressure (initially across the southern High Plains) will
gradually intensify and accelerate northeastward into the Great
Lakes in conjunction with the southern stream trough. Although
there is still considerable uncertainty regarding when this will
occur, a surface trough trailing southward off the low may bring
an increasing risk for rain and thunderstorms to our region on
Friday. Although both low-level and deep-layer shear appear
conducive for organized storms at this point, instability may be
limited by widespread clouds and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless,
this is a system we will need to monitor closely over the coming
days. Highs and lows next week will remain very mild and in the
m-u 70s/m-u 50s respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF
period. Southwesterly winds will quickly pick up this morning and
become sustained around 10 kts with gusts 20-25 kts throughout the
day. After sunset, winds will remain elevated and wind shear
(40-45kts at ~2kft) becomes an issue that will persist until the
end of the TAF period. Shortly before sunrise on Sunday, low
scattered ceilings 1500-3000 ft could provide pockets of drizzle,
especially for KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS