492
FXUS64 KHUN 091938
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
138 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 955 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - A Freeze Warning is in effect late this evening through Monday
   morning for all of north Alabama.

 - Near record or record cold temperatures are forecast tonight
   into Monday morning and again Monday night into early Tuesday.

 - Wind chill values will drop into the teens to lower 20s Monday
   and Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cloud cover has gradually overspread most of the local area this
afternoon. This is expected to last through mid-evening before
shifting to the east/southeast. As mentioned earlier, temperatures
have gradually decreased and are currently in the mid 40s to
around 50 degrees. The exception is over NE AL, where skies were
clear for longer today, leading to a slower decrease in
temperatures. Values at present over these locations are in the
lower to upper 50s. However, temperatures area-wide will continue
to decrease through this evening and overnight as forecasted.
Additionally, it has been a breezy day so far. Sustained northwest
winds have ranged between 10-15 mph along with gusts to between
20-25 mph or so. There have been a few gusts closer to 30 mph, but
these have not been frequent or widespread. Therefore, a Wind
Advisory is not needed at this time, but we will continue to
monitor observations and trends. Overall, the forecast remains on
track, with no significant changes needed.

Previous Discussion:

A stout upper trough will begin to swing over the eastern CONUS
today. The tight pressure gradient from this feature will bring
increased winds to the region. In fact, we`ve already begun to see
this with observed gusts between 20-25 mph in some spots across
north Alabama. This actually caused the dense fog over northeast
Alabama to erode faster this morning. These sustained winds (to
around 10-20 mph) are forecast to persist through tonight, with
gusts to between 20-25 mph during that time as well. Although,
there may be higher gusts to around 25-30 mph in some locations,
especially this afternoon and over the higher elevations. This
remains below Wind Advisory criteria but we will continue to
monitor.

The other aspect we will be watching is the incoming low to
medium cloud cover from the northwest (as seen by satellite
imagery). Currently, these clouds are forecast to move in by the
early afternoon and push southeastward through late this evening.
The increased winds, drier and cooler air from the northwest, and
potential clouds will have an effect on our temperatures through
the day. In fact, it`s possible that our high temperatures for the
day will occur through late this morning. The usual diurnal
temperature cycle where we are cooler in the morning, get warmer
in the afternoon, and then cool in the evening will not be the
case today. Temperatures may increase a touch more through the
late morning, then gradually drop through the afternoon as clouds
increase and winds pick up more. By late afternoon, we may dip
into the 40s. Therefore, make sure you have a jacket handy today!
As for any precipitation, there is a very low chance (10-15%) of a
shower over southern middle Tennessee this evening. Temperatures
by this time will likely be in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees,
so not expecting any flurries or snow showers. Most of any that
do occur would be to our northeast in eastern Tennessee.

For tonight, most of the cloud cover will shift southeast, with
perhaps some mid to upper level clouds streaming overhead by late
tonight. This, along with elevated winds and cold air advection,
will result in temperatures tanking through this evening. By
around midnight, our temperatures may already drop into the lower
to mid 30s. Forecast temperatures remain on track to further
plummet into the mid to upper 20s later tonight into early Monday.
The Freeze Warning therefore remains in effect from 10PM tonight
through 10AM Monday morning nor all of north Alabama. Furthermore,
with continued winds, wind chills are expected to be in the teens
to around 20 degrees later tonight. Please remember the four Ps:
protect people, pets, pipes, and plants! Also, remember space
heater safety if you use one to keep warm: keep it level, give it
at least a 3 foot radius, plug it directly into a wall outlet, and
never leave it running while away/sleeping!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 955 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The previously mentioned pressure gradient will persist through
the day on Monday and into the evening as the upper trough swings
over the Southeast. Sustained northwest winds between 10-20 mph
with gusts to between 20-25 mph will be common through the day on
Monday and into the evening; however, we will continue to watch
the trends with wind gusts since some guidance indicates a medium
to high chance of wind gusts reaching over 30 mph over northeast
Alabama (higher terrain) Monday afternoon. An even colder airmass
is anticipated Monday through early Tuesday morning as surface
high pressure also digs down over the central CONUS and into the
Southeast from Canada.

Even with not as much cloud cover as today, highs are forecast to
merely top out in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees on Monday.
Additionally, wind chills in the mid to upper teens early Monday
morning will only increase into the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday
afternoon due to elevated winds and chilly afternoon temperatures.
Also, while little to no precipitation is currently forecast,
there is a low chance of flurries over southern middle Tennessee
Monday afternoon into early Monday evening; although, most of any
snow showers are more likely to be over the mountains to our
northeast in eastern Tennessee. By Monday night, although winds
are expected to finally subside, it`ll be a frosty night with
temperatures expected to drop well below freezing once again.
Forecast lows are mainly in the lower 20s, with the potential for
a few spots to drop into the upper teens! Wind chills are forecast
to range in the upper teens to lower 20s for most areas late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning as well. Therefore, please
bundle up and protect pets, pipes, and plants and remember space
heater safety!

Tuesday will then begin a warming trend through the remainder of
the week. Mostly clear skies and highs in the upper 40s to lower
50s will be the theme on Tuesday, with lows only dropping into the
30s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 919 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

By midweek the longwave trough along the east coast will lift
northeastward and the shortwave behind it will slide across the
Great Lakes. This pattern will dampen the sfc high in place across
the Southeast, but that will be short lived as an amplified ridge
will build along the Rockies on Thursday. The ridge will slide
into the Plains on Friday and the axis will reach the TN Valley by
Saturday.

Wednesday`s southwesterly flow from the sfc high will rebound high
temps into the 60s, over 10 degrees warmer than those we will see
on Tuesday. Values will be just a tad higher on Thursday, and
with the increasing heights and continued sunshine, highs will
reach the 70s on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

MVFR CIGs are moving in from northwest to southeast this
afternoon as a low to midlevel cloud deck progresses into the
region. This is forecast to only last a few hours, with VFR
conditions returning by late this afternoon/early this evening as
the cloud cover shifts southeast. Winds have picked up since this
morning as well, with sustained northwest winds between 10-15
knots and gusts to 20-25 knots anticipated through the afternoon.
A slight decrease in winds will then follow for this evening and
tonight (except over the high terrain of NE AL), However, winds
will increase once again Monday morning. By the afternoon,
sustained northwest winds around 15 knots with gusts to around
22-26 knots are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Record cold temperatures are possible on the 10th through the
11th.

November 10:

Huntsville - Low maximum - 43 (1950) Low minimum 20 (1913)
Muscle Shoals - Low maximum - 43 (1950) Low minimum 24 (1933)

November 11:

Huntsville - Low maximum - 38 (1968) Low minimum 22 (1926)
Muscle Shoals - Low maximum - 39 (1894) Low minimum 19 (1913)

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...26