


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
294 FXUS64 KHUN 171123 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday. - High chances of showers return Saturday night into early Sunday. - Some thunderstorms could become strong to severe in intensity. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Upper level ridging which in part helped to keep dry conditions over the Tennessee Valley was on a weakening trend, flattening to the south. This was in response to a mid-latitude trough amplifying and heading across the western and central CONUS. This will eventually result in a more unsettled pattern for parts of the upcoming weekend. Before then, expect more mid October warmth as we close out the work week. High temperatures should rise into the low/mid 80s with light winds becoming southerly 5-10 mph. Some higher altitude moisture should begin creeping in this afternoon, ending a few days streak of cloudless days the area has experienced. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The aformentioned trough will continue to amplify as it moves across the central Lower-48. This trough will take on neutral to a slight negative tilt as we go into late Saturday and on Sunday. An upper disturbance following the trough as it deepens, will help begin surface low development over the south/central Great Plains Sat evening. This system as forms and moves to the NE will begin producing showers and thunderstorms from the upper Mississippi River Valley to the central plains Sat. The coverage of showers will increase during the day Sat, with it reaching western portions of our area late in day and in the night. Showers and storms should then sweep in a west to east manner across the area Sat night into Sun morning. Timing from the models were in reasonably good agreement between one another. They were hinting at the best chances for strong to severe storms mainly in the overnight of Sat night into early Sun morning. The main threat from the stronger storms will be strong to damaging wind gusts. A tornado threat is low, given that activity to our west should weaken as it moves into a more stable environment. The highest threat for the stronger storms will be more over NW Alabama, with the risk lower as one moves to the east. Also timing of the stronger storms is in the late night (with the weakest heating potential), that will help in tempering overall intensity. And this system`s main surface cyclone will be located closer to the Great Lakes than the Ohio River, which helps somewhat lessen a severe threat. With warm air in place, expect another mild night with Friday night lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Depending on how much cloudiness occurs, Saturday could feature very warm mid October conditions, with highs in the low/mid 80s, not as warm as standing record high temperatures of around 90. Winds could become an issue Sat and Sat night. A tightening pressure gradient rounding the developing cyclone will produce southerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph especially Sat night into Sun. A cold front will sweep across the area on Sun, bringing noticeable cooler air across the region. Highs on Sun should only rise into the mid 60s to around 70, with NW winds of 10-15 mph and stronger gusts. Showers in progress should taper off from west to east during the course of the day. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A cooler, drier air mass will filter into the Tennessee Valley in wake of a strong cold front Sunday night as cloud cover begins to dissipate. The mostly clear sky and dry air mass will allow for an excellent setup for radiational cooling as low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s. Quite the chilly start for the new work week Monday morning. High pressure at the surface will build back into the on Monday, with highs running about 10 degrees cooler in the low to mid 70s underneath a mostly sunny sky. A second shortwave will ripple across the lower Ohio Valley, sending another reinforcing shot of cool air (along with some cloud cover and very low chances (20%) for some light rain showers). High pressure will build back in, but this cool, dry air mass will settle into the region as highs will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows will drop into the lower 40s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR weather will continue for the TAF. Light winds early will become SE 5-10kt in the late morning and much of the afternoon. Winds should become light this evening. A few high clouds moving in are possible this afternoon and evening as a system forms well to the west. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...RSB