240
FXUS64 KHUN 261914
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
214 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Storms should begin to dissipate shortly after sunset, as we lose
daytime heating. Some forcing is possible along convergence
boundaries, though without daytime heating, it`ll be tough for
storms to ignite. The marginal risk of severe weather from the
afternoon should also subside as storms become less organized.
However, an isolated strong storm, capable of producing gusty
winds, is possible.

Some lingering clouds are possible, but skies should be mostly
clear. This should help temperatures to drop throughout the night,
into the mid-70s across much of the area. Winds should also relax
and become more light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the duration of
the short term forecast. Mid level ridging will build in from the
west through the short term reinforcing the presence of mid level dry
air. At the surface, the return of southerly flow will advect in
higher dew points from the Gulf. With a warm moist environment in
place, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon. With no appreciable shear present, no organized severe
weather is expected. Rather, storms will likely mirror typical
pop up summer convection with some storms having a low chance of
becoming strong to severe. That being said, any storms that do
form will pose a threat for damaging winds and frequent lightning
each afternoon. Given the scattered coverage of storms expected,
those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to closely monitor
weather condition.

Aside from rain and storm chances, heat will unfortunately remain a
threat through the weekend as well. Both temperatures and dew points
will gradually increase through the duration of the short term
forecast yielding to a gradual increase in heat index values. The
current forecast includes heat index values on Saturday afternoon
exceeding heat advisory criteria (105F+) west of I-65. If current
forecast trends continue, a heat advisory will likely be needed for
at least a portion of the CWA for Saturday and potentially Sunday.
Regardless of the exact temperatures or presence of a heat advisory,
it is going to be hot for everyone. Make sure to practice proper sun
and heat safety through the weekend especially for those partaking in
outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through
the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and
the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal
thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get
each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions should persist through most of the day for both
KHSV and KMSL until around 20z. At 20z, storms are likely to fire
off, especially around KMSL through about 00-04z on Thursday.
Visibility will likely lower as storms near or on top on the
terminal. After 00z, most storms should begin to dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating, with returning VFR conditions likely
by this time.

For KHSV, VFR conditions are still forecast through the TAF
period. However, storms are likely to to be in the vicinity of the
terminal between 21z through 01z on Thursday. Storms should begin
to dissipate by 01-05z Thursday.

In between storms, winds should primarily be out of the SW at
about 5kts with some scattered clouds.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...Serre