936
FXUS64 KHUN 161148
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
648 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A weak area of surface low pressure (in conjunction with a
positively-tilted mid-level wave) resides across eastern
OK/western AR early this morning, with a subtle surface
trough/warm front extending eastward from the low now lifting
northward across KY and into the OH Valley. Showers and
thunderstorms that occurred in the vicinity of the warm front late
yesterday evening (along and north of the AL-TN border) have
largely dissipated, although additional shower activity has
recently developed in the same general region, likely due to the
onset of a more pronounced SSW flow/warm advection regime in the
boundary layer. With this activity expected to progress
northeastward (perhaps only clipping our southern TN zones), most
of the CWFA will remain dry through sunrise, with a combination of
low stratus clouds and patchy fog expected to persist as temps
remain steady in the u60s-l70s.

Over the course of the day, the mid-level wave is predicted to
spread east-southeastward across the Ozarks and into western
portions of the Lower/Mid-MS Valleys, inducing a gradual increase
in deep-layer SW flow along the northwestern edge of a subtropical
high centered across the southwestern North Atlantic.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this morning from the
Lower OH Valley southwestward into the Arklamiss (in the vicinity
of a differential heating boundary originating from widespread
nocturnal precipitation across southeastern MO/AR), with this
activity spreading eastward into the western portion of our CWFA
by mid-late afternoon. Although flow throughout the tropospheric
column will be on an increasing trend throughout the day, shear
appears unsupportive of organized convection through 0Z. However,
presuming that afternoon temps reach 85-90F as morning low clouds
lift/scatter, CAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range will be conducive
for gusty outflow winds (up to 40-50 MPH), locally heavy rainfall
and frequent lightning with the strongest cells.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

After storm activity ends, cloudy conditions are expected to
linger, which should deter fog formation. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additional
shower/storm chances are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons during peak heating hours, however, no severe weather
is forecast at this time. Similarly to Monday, strong storms
capable of gusty winds, lightning, and flooding cannot be ruled
out either day. Highs during this time are forecast to rise into
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Thursday, a cold front is forecast to
swing down from the northwest ahead of another upper level trough
forecast to move through the OH River Valley. This will result in
medium-high chances of showers and thunderstorms through the area
(50-80%) with some storms capable of becoming strong. However, no
severe weather is forecast at this time. High pressure is
forecast to set up through the the end of the week, allowing a
rise in temperatures and an increased concern for heat into the
weekend. More on that in the long-term below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Bottom line up front: Temperatures will be on the rise through the
weekend with the hottest temperatures and heat index values we have
seen so far this year. On top of that, there will be daily diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, so remember if you hear thunder or see
lightning, you are close enough to be struck, so head inside.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the region as we end the
week. As a trough digs into the West Coast, it will shift the ridge
to center over the TN Valley this weekend before shifting eastward
early next week. During this time, we will see a gradual increase in
temperatures with highs starting off in the upper 80s to 90 degrees
on Friday, and reaching the lower 90s across the board on Sunday.
Overnight lows will start off near normal in the upper 60s Friday
night, but reaching above normal values in the lower 70s by Sunday
night, not providing much relief from the heat. Moisture will be
trapped under this ridge, allowing for heat index values to reach the
100 degree mark this weekend, and daily chances (10-30%) for
diurnally driven convection. For heat safety information, please see
our website and social media accounts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Low stratus clouds will temporarily provide MVFR cigs (~1500 ft
AGL) at both terminals thru 16Z before lifting/scattering. As
partial clearing begins later this morning, the local airmass will
quickly destabilize, sustaining clusters of TSRA that will spread
into the region from the west by mid/late aftn. Based on a
consensus of high-res model guidance, we have included PROB30
groups for TSRA and related MVFR cig/vsby reductions from
20-2Z/MSL and 22-4Z/HSV, although this will likely need to be
refined as we see convection develop to our west later this
morning. AWWs for lightning and strong wind gusts may be needed
during this period, as well. In the wake of evening precipitation,
low stratus clouds will quickly redevelop across the region,
perhaps resulting in MVFR cigs once again prior to the end of this
forecast period. Sfc winds will remain from the SSW at speeds of
5-10 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD