830
FXUS64 KHUN 162027
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
227 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Cooler conditions today and tomorrow.

 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
   night through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A frontal boundary has moved well to the south of the forecast
area. With an exception of a few high clouds approaching from the
SW, clear skies prevailed across the area. Area temperatures so
far have managed to rise a bit more than previously anticipated,
now from the mid/upper 60s southern middle Tennessee, to the
low/mid 70s over portions of northern Alabama. As surface high
pressure builds in from north/central Great Plains, winds should
become light from the north tonight. With cold air advection,
expect colder conditions tonight, with lows falling into mid 30s
sheltered valleys to lower 40s near large bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For Monday, dry conditions will continue as surface high pressure
over the region controls the general weather. Cooler temperatures
will continue, with highs in the 60s and light winds. Lows Mon
night should cool from near 40 east to 50 west. Clear skies
Tuesday morning should become partly cloudy in the afternoon, as
the weakening remnants of a system moves from the central Rockies
to the Appalachians. This system per some of the models could
bring light showers across KY/TN, and maybe far NW AL on Tuesday.
As the surface high moves east of the region, a SE-S wind will
resume. With a southerly flow and higher heights, high temps Tue
will be warmer, again back into the 70s. More unsettled weather
returns Tuesday night and on Wednesday, as more moisture and
instability brings lower end chances of showers and thunderstorms
to the Valley. Milder conditions are expected Tue night with lows
in the mid 50s to around 60. Unseasonably warm conditions are
expected Wednesday with highs from the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The long term forecast will be slightly more unsettled as a low
pressure system pushes into the western coast and translates east
across the county. A surface low with a trailing cold front and
attached warm front looks to accompany this feature and impact
our weather locally through the weekend. Along and ahead of the
passage of the cold front, cloudy conditions will plague the
local area from Wednesday through Friday. Low rain chances will
also be present (10-30 %) for areas north of the TN River. The
broad WSW flow will allow some moisture to return to the area
returning dew points to the 60s and nudging temps into the mid to
high 70s each day.

The front looks to pass on Friday however ensemble models remain
unresolved regarding specific timing and strength of the front.
While rain continues to look likely on Friday (50-70%),
thunderstorm chances look much more questionable. Ensembles show
favorable low and mid level shear however the persistent overcast
conditions may limit instability. The fine details will determine
our storm chances on Friday and unfortunately we will have to wait
a few more days for this time frame to be within HIRES model
coverage. Until then we will continue to monitor the trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Surface high pressure building in from the northwest will provide
VFR weather across the greater Tennessee Valley through Monday
morning. NW-N winds of 10-20kt and some higher gusts are expected
into the late afternoon, with winds becoming light tonight. NE
winds around 5kt are expected after daybreak Monday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB