649
FXUS64 KHUN 131554
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
954 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 954 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Temperatures will warm each day into the weekend with highs
   returning to the 70s on Friday.

 - Low to medium rain chances return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 954 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

High pressure and a building ridge to our west will continue to
keep dry and warming conditions over the area today. In fact, some
locations along and west of I-65 could hit the 70 degree mark
before this afternoon is over. This will be a welcomed change for
those not quite ready for the frigid temps we experienced earlier
in the week. A slight increase in moisture will result in periods
of partly cloudy conditions today. Temps will cool down into the
low to mid 40s tonight thanks to clear skies and light winds
promoting good radiational cooling. Patchy to areas of dense fog
will be possible once again tonight, especially in and around
river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 954 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to amplify to our
west into the weekend and sfc high pressure will slowly shift off
to the northeast. This shift will turn low level winds to the
south, bringing even warmer temps to the area as we head into the
weekend. Highs will top out in the low to mid 70s both Friday and
Saturday with lows in the upper 40s to 50s each night. We should
see plenty of sunshine each day as well as we remain in a
relatively dry airmass. Gradient flow will intensify ahead of an
upper disturbance progged to track through the Great Lakes region
late this weekend, and southwest winds will become breezy Saturday
afternoon in response to this. We will remain below Wind Advisory
criteria, but gusts could reach up to 20-25mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Latest extended range guidance suggests that a deep mid/upper-
level trough will extend from eastern Canada into the northeastern
CONUS on Sunday/Sunday night, with northwest flow aloft of 40-50
knots in place across the local forecast area. At the surface, the
southwestern portion of a cold front (attached to a deepening low
off the coast of New England) will advance southeastward through
the region, perhaps bringing a period of low clouds and some
pockets of light rain late Sunday morning, followed by a wind
shift to the north during the afternoon, with highs in the
u60s-l70s. There is considerably uncertainty regarding how far
south a drier continental airmass will penetrate into the TN
Valley Sunday afternoon/evening before the front begins returns
northward, making the overnight low temp forecast in the m-u 40s
quite uncertain.

Beginning Monday (and continuing through Wednesday), a
strengthening subtropical ridge will build northward from central
America and should become centered across the southern Gulf by the
end of the period, downstream from a slow-moving but amplified
trough digging across the southwestern CONUS. Along the northern
rim of the expanding 500-mb ridge, an initially compact shortwave
trough will track across the central Plains on Monday but should
weaken and accelerate eastward as it enters increasingly confluent
flow between the trough to our northeast and ridge to our south
on Monday night/Tuesday.

In light of this, it is not surprising that the global models
offer a wide variety of solutions regarding both the path and
speed of a weak surface low related to this disturbance and at
what point (if at all) a weak cold front attached to it will cross
the region. For this reason we will retain low-medium (20-40%)
POPs in the forecast from Monday night-Tuesday night, which
represents the potential time range for frontal passage. With
surface dewpoints in the lower 60s supporting at least weak
instability/CAPE, both showers and thunderstorms will be possible
should the front eventually make it into our region. Both deep-
layer and low-level shear will also be marginally conducive for
storm organization (with mid-level westerly flow of 35-45 knots
and a WSW low-level of 20-30 knots), and we will continue to
monitor this system for at least a minor risk of severe
thunderstorms. In the event that the front does indeed push
through the region, a brief intrusion of slightly drier/cooler
continental air can be expected on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period with light winds and a mostly clear
sky. However, some localized IFR conditions may develop briefly
this morning through 13z due to patchy fog development near each
terminal. This fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for November 20th. Precipitation exceeding
1-2 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP