827
FXUS64 KHUN 281902
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
202 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The shower activity has remained to our southwest so far today as
high clouds continue to increase. Temps have risen to the upper
70s/mid 80s this afternoon and winds have remained on the lighter
side. Clouds are forecast to clear from north to south overnight
but no fog is forecast overnight. No significant changes were
made during the afternoon update.

Previous discussion:
High pressure will largely remain dominant today as an upper
trough axis shifts slightly to the east and an embedded shortwave
increases shower and thunderstorm activity along a frontal
boundary to our south. While the best chances will be to our
southwest, a few showers could clip northwest AL, especially south
of the TN River. Outside of this, mostly cloudy conditions will
remain through the day as the aforementioned upper wave moves just
to our west. Temperatures will stay on the cooler side of seasonal
norms, only rising to the lower 80s.

Dry and cool conditions will continue overnight with lows in the
upper 50s/lower 60s. Winds will remain light and variable and no
fog is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Northwest flow will persist over the weekend as upper level
troughing largely remains over the eastern CONUS. This will
continue to keep cooler conditions across the region with low
chances for rain and storms, primarily south of the TN River. The
good news is that we are not expecting anything impactful and
there should be plenty of time to get out and enjoy the nice
weather over the weekend. We will have to monitor the chance of
fog formation each morning as moisture will increase over the
southern portion of our area, but did not add fog to the forecast
with this update due to uncertainty.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Extended range model consensus suggests that a mid/upper-level
longwave trough will remain established across eastern North
America from Sunday-Wednesday, with WNW flow aloft of 10-20 knots
expected to persist across the TN Valley.

At the surface, an ill-defined area of low pressure (initially
along the northeastern Gulf Coast) is predicted to gradually
become more organized as it tracks southeastward into the FL
Peninsula by Monday, before turning northeastward into the
southwestern North Atlantic Monday night. Although the gradient
between the low to our southeast and a broad ridge of high
pressure (extending from the Upper MS Valley into New England)
will maintain a light NE flow at times, gradual modification of
the local airmass will support dewpoints returning to the
u50s-l60s from Sunday-Monday night. As a subtle surface trough
(originating off the low to our southeast) shifts westward across
our forecast area Sunday, isolated showers will be possible during
the afternoon/evening hours. A similar feature will bring a
slightly greater coverage of showers (and perhaps a few
thunderstorms) on Monday given the gradual increase in deep layer
moisture and CAPE. However the greatest spatial concentration of
precipitation appears as if it will be in more favorable regions
of upslope flow to our north/east, and POPs in our region will
remain between 10-30%. Highs both Sunday and Monday will range
from the u70s-l80s/E to mid 80s/W, with lows in the l-m 60s.

During the period from Tuesday-Wednesday, low-level southwesterly
flow will gradually increase as a northern stream clipper system
and surface low drop southeastward across the northern Plains and
Upper- MS Valley. This will contribute to further moistening of
the boundary layer and a notable increase in CAPE by Wednesday,
when highs will return to the m-u 80s. Thus, a gradual increase in
the coverage of showers/thunderstorms is expected during this
timeframe (both during the day and at night), and strengthening
mid-level winds may result in a few more organized convective
cells on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with increasing
high clouds and light/var winds. No fog is forecast overnight at
this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25