731
FXUS64 KHUN 032356
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
556 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Low chances for patchy freezing fog tonight.

 - Low chances for a very short window where a wintry mix could
   mix in with rainfall around sunrise Thursday morning.

 - Chances for rain occur at times Thursday through Saturday
   night, with medium to high chances Thursday night into Friday
   morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 236 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds have dispersed faster than expected today for most of us,
despite much of the guidance suggesting it would last much longer.
Highs will still be fairly cool in the 40s, and overnight lows
will reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. Updated cloud cover grids
to reflect current obs. With this, will keep the low potential for
patchy fog and freezing fog in the forecast for tonight before
cloud cover returns after midnight, limiting the coverage. Lows
will be around freezing, so be sure to bundle up!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A disturbance will slide through the TN Valley Thursday morning
bringing an increase in cloud cover and a low chance (20-30%) of
precip with it. There is a very short window around sunrise where
temps are still at freezing and a light wintry mix could mix in with
the cold rain. No accumulation or impacts expected as temps will
continue to rise well into the 40s.

An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the rest of the week
into the weekend. A sfc low along the TX coast will ride up the
coastline ahead of a slow moving, weakening trough. The sfc low
will spread high chances (80-90%) of rainfall across the TN
Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. Lingering low chances
(20-30%) of rainfall will persist through the rest of the day on
Friday and Saturday with the highest coverage in NE AL. Daytime
highs will be several degrees below normal Friday and Saturday in
the upper 40s to lower 50s, but at least lows will remain above
freezing in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be
the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through
the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into
the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system
looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any
precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck
with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%)
from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near
daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as
they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce
brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low
confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful)
tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with
high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps
will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and
50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday
forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Periods of high clouds were moving across the area, thanks to
moisture being advected from the subtropics of the NE Pacific
basin to the eastern seaboard. Under this flow, a surface low
pressure system is forecast to form over SE Texas, with moisture
from it overspreading the Tennessee Valley towards daybreak Thu.
Given that temperatures will be around freezing, a brief wintry
mix is possible should rain from the system reaches this area.
Shower chances will diminish as we go into the late morning, with
VFR weather expected much of the day Thu. Additional moisture
moving in from the SW will return lower end rain chances to the
area late in the TAF. Although KMSL has better odds of being
impacted, overall chances of showers were too low to include in
the TAF this issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB