677
FXUS63 KICT 241136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible
  overnight into this morning, along with locally heavy rain.

- Another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

- Periodic low chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night, and then
  again Friday night through at least Sunday night.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several days,
  turning solidly above average by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

EARLY THIS MORNING...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the predawn hours and persist into this morning, mainly
along/east of I-135, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb
warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent
directional effective shear may support a handful of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail.
The potential for higher-end severe hail will likely be hampered by
higher cloud bases limiting buoyancy and effective shear.
Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support
locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. All activity
will likely exit to the southeast by midday.

LATE TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...A weak cold front approaching from the
northwest should support increasing chances for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night. A seasonable buoyancy/shear combination along with decent
downdraft CAPE may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms,
especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Additional shortwave energy dropping south across
the Upper Mississippi Valley may support low thunderstorm chances
getting into central KS Wednesday night, but thinking most of this
activity should remain west-northwest of the forecast area.

FRIDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...The upper ridge should finally start
shifting east from the southwest to the south-central CONUS toward
the weekend, as shortwave energy tracks across the northern CONUS
and southern Canada. This should allow a cold front to slowly
approach from the north, with low thunderstorms chances over mainly
the northern half of KS this weekend.

TEMPERATURES:

With northwest flow aloft persisting across the region, near to
slightly above average temperatures are expected through late week,
with forecast highs mostly in the upper 80s through mid-90s, warmest
over southern Kansas. As we head toward late this week and the
weekend, the stout upper ridge should shift east from the southwest
CONUS to the south-central CONUS, supporting a warming trend over
the weekend into at least early next week. Could be looking at
another round of widespread 100s, although at least dewpoints should
be lower and south-southwest winds on the breezy side.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist
across eastern Kansas through about mid to late morning today.
The strongest activity will be capable of pea to dime size hail,
gusty winds, and heavy rain. CNU is the only TAF site that will
be impacted by this activity. Once this activity clears to the
east-southeast, quiet VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF
sites through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK