098
FXUS63 KICT 192018
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
218 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms over mainly southeast KS tonight, with
  some hail possible from stronger storms.

- Widespread rain for Thursday afternoon through Friday for all
  of the forecast area.

- Rain chances return for Sunday evening through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Upper level trough is currently situated over Southern CA with
upper ridging across the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Stationary front currently stretches from central AR into
southern OK.

A lead mid level impulse is generating some light returns across
western KS and will likely result in some sprinkles or very
light rain across much of central KS late this afternoon and
early evening. Still good model agreement that the better
850mb-700mb moisture transport will get going generally after
06z this evening and will allow for showers and storms to
develop from eastern OK into southeast KS. Still looking for
around 1,000J/KG of CAPE above 850mb with around 30kts of
effective shear. This should be enough for the stronger storms
to produce some dime to quarter size hail, especially across far
southeast KS, mainly after 08z.

By 12z Thu, upper trough will extend from central AZ down to
western Sonora with a warm front stretching from northeast OK
into southwest OK and will be lifting north. Upper trough will
rapidly lift northeast during the day Thu and will become more
negatively tilted as it progresses northeast. Increased upper
diffluence combined with strong mid level theta-e advection will
allow a large area of showers and a couple storms to lift north
across the entire area on Thu. However, feel that most of the
area will remain dry through the morning hours with precip not
lifting north across southern KS until the early afternoon and
not overspreading central KS until after 21z Thu. This is
delayed somewhat from previous model runs. This impulse will
start to shear-out as it slides across northern OK/KS for late
Thu night through Fri. This will keep high rain chances in place
Fri, especially across northern KS. As far as rainfall amounts,
we are still looking for a very high chance that all sites see
more than a half inch, with a good chance several sites see
around or more than an inch through Fri.

By 12z Sat, what is left of this wave will be quickly moving
into the Ohio Valley, with another deep upper low approaching
Northern Baja. Confidence is high that we are looking for dry
conditions for Sat with temps a couple degrees above seasonal
normals. The GFS is a bit faster with the upper low compared to
the ECMWF and would bring-in showers to our western flank
faster, by Sun afternoon, while the ECMWF holds off with precip
until Sun evening. So at a minimum, the early Sun evening
through Mon evening time frame looks wet as the upper low
swings through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Increasing mid-level moisture ahead of a western US storm
system will spread hit-or-miss light showers east-northeast
across the region late this afternoon through the evening.
Thinking this activity will be fairly light and scattered, so
only included PROB30 -SHRA from late this afternoon through the
evening at most TAF sites.

Later tonight over southeast Kansas, increasing deep warm/moist
advection and associated instability will support scattered to
numerous showers/thunderstorms, possibly impacting the CNU TAF
site between roughly 07z and 12z. Later shifts may need to
consider adding a TEMPO group for this threat at CNU.

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will gradually
increase from the south late morning Thursday through the
afternoon all areas, and persisting through Thursday night all
areas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK