477
FXUS63 KICT 141938
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat lingering for much of southern and eastern KS through
  Saturday.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon  and
  evening, while persisting over the weekend and possible into
  Monday.

- More seasonable temperatures expected for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A stalled frontal boundary continues to bisect central Kansas with
extreme heat anticipated south of this boundary while more
seasonable values can be expected in it`s wake. Subtle convergence
along the sfc trough axis will continue to promote diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The highest probabilities are expected to
arrive after 4 pm when the cap weakens. We continue to see a deeply
mixed pbl with inverted-v profiles on point soundings supporting
strong/damaging winds with the more robust updrafts.

The stalled boundary will linger over the area on Saturday setting
the stage for another day of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. We will also see another day of excessive heat
over southern Kansas on Saturday. The boundary is expected to move
southward Saturday night into Sunday with more seasonable air
arriving across the area on Sunday. The post-frontal airmass will
be moist with lower 70 dewpoints leading to less capping during the
afternoon hours as a subtle wave moves over the area keeping some
low pops in the forecast, especially across southeast Kansas closer
to the frontal zone.

More seasonable air is expected across the area on Monday and we
maintained some low pops as we remain within a moist easterly post-
frontal upslope regime. A subtle shortwave trough may help trigger
some post-frontal diurnally driven storms on Monday but confidence
remains fairly low at this time.

The cooldown will be short-lived with rising heights/increasing
thickness supporting rising temperatures over much of the area on
Tue and possible Wednesday. Another progressive shortwave trough
racing eastward over the Northern Plains will drive a frontal
boundary southward into the Central Plains but this front may become
stationary leading to low confidence in temperatures on Wednesday.
This front may also provide a focus for showers and storms but
confidence in the timing remains low. If it arrives slower, the
chance for showers and storms may be delayed until Wed night with
cooler air arriving on Thu, a faster fropa would bring higher
probabilities for showers and storms to much of the area on
Wednesday. After another brief cooldown on Thu, moderating
temperatures are expected to return late in the week as the
mid/upper ridge amplifies over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A stalled frontal boundary continues to bisect central Kansas.
This boundary is expected to become a focus for showers and
thunderstorms after 21-22Z. Wind direction in central Kansas
will be difficult to pin down as the boundary meanders over the
region through tonight. Gusty and erratic winds will also be
common in and near showers and thunderstorms given the deeply
mixed boundary layer. Another complex of showers and storms
drifting eastward off the high plains of western Kansas could
impact the area late tonight, but higher probabilities for more
robust coverage may remain further north of the area. South of
the frontal boundary, breezy southwest winds will be common once
again with some gusts to around 30  mph at times.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM