189
FXUS63 KICT 071117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near 100 degrees through Tuesday before heat
  relief arrives for some by Wednesday; Much cooler for
  Thursday

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning
  across central KS and this afternoon across eastern KS;
  Additional rain chances Tuesday night and beyond

- Increasing potential for a strong cold front late this
  weekend or early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

As of 230 AM Monday, a highly amplified midlevel ridge remains
across the central US and is flanked by troughs on each coast. A
remnant outflow boundary from thunderstorm activity across western
MO Sunday evening continues to progress southwest and currently
extends from Lyons to Wichita to Arkansas City. Regional radar
reveals a complex of thunderstorms moving across northern NE and SD
within a broad zone of 850-700 mb WAA. Unlike the past few mornings,
thermodynamic profiles are not as favorable for isolated
thunderstorms as the LLJ veers near dawn. Similar to Sunday
afternoon, a weak low-level baroclinic zone across eastern KS
this afternoon will overlap a moist airmass comprised of PW
values up to 1.75". This may yield a few isolated thunderstorms
(mainly east of Highway 77) with MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Effective shear will remain 20-25 kt, supporting mainly
pulse convection. DCAPE up to 1300 J/kg may support localized
downbursts near 60 mph. In regards to temperatures, with the
ridge axis overhead, afternoon highs near 100 degrees are
expected area-wide through Tuesday. The Heat Advisory remains in
effect through Tuesday evening.

Mid to long range guidance are trending towards an end of the long
stretch of unseasonably hot temperatures. The initial pattern change
begins late Tuesday into Wednesday as a midlevel shortwave trough
ejects across the northern Plains, shunting a surface cold front
into the state. Exact timing of the front will be pivotal for high
temperatures Wednesday afternoon. Areas ahead of the front are
likely to surge near 100 degrees with post-frontal areas in the 80s
or low 90s. The frontal zone should sweep across the entire forecast
area by Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s for most
locations. As the frontal zone progresses across the area, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase as well. PW values may exceed
2" near and ahead of the front, suggesting heavy rainfall is
possible.

Transitioning into Thursday night and Friday, zonal midlevel flow
will become established across northern half of CONUS with the next
shortwave trough emerging across the Pacific northwest. The initial
cold front will slide well-southeast of the area with the next
surface trough developing across the high Plains. This will return
southerly flow to the forecast area. WAA driven showers and
thunderstorms are possible late Thursday night and Friday morning.
Temperatures will surge back into the 90s areawide Friday afternoon
ahead of the next cold front. This cold front will sweep across
the area Saturday with additional shower/thunderstorm chances
as well. This frontal passage will similar to Wednesday`s with
southerly flow quickly returning Sunday into Monday as another
lee surface trough develops across the high Plains. The frontal
passage that many Kansans have been long awaiting looks to
sweep across the area during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe of
next week. A stout 1025 mb post-frontal surface high will usher
in a taste of fall!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly
winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt,
especially across central KS. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across eastern KS this afternoon. Introduced a PROB30
mention at CNU from 19-01Z to account for this potential. Wind
speeds will decrease to around 10 kt by 01-02Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF