422
FXUS63 KICT 301901
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
201 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with some embedded storms will be most numerous late
  this afternoon and evening with scattered showers lingering
  through the night and more widely scattered activity on
  Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms will affect the region for
  late Sunday night through Tuesday.

- A few strong or severe storms may impact the area on Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Patchy fog lingers across the area early this afternoon while
numerous showers were lifting north out of Oklahoma as a shortwave
trough ejects from the Southern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a
large expansive moist plume extending downstream from this
approaching shortwave trough over the Central Plains with PWATs
around 1.4 inches which is above the 90th percentile for late Oct
across the area. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening are expected to decrease in
coverage as we move through the overnight hours while some
scattered activity may linger over the area in the day on
Saturday before the trough axis lifts north and east of the area
late in the day. We could see some low ceilings and fog
redevelop tonight if coverage of shower activity diminishes
given a very moist pbl.

Shortwave ridging is still expected to arrive over the area on
Sunday providing a break in the action before another more robust
positively tilted trough builds into the Rockies late in the day.
This next feature will begin to emerge across the area on Monday
with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop late Sunday night
as the robust LLJ transports moisture northward. More widespread
shower and storm activity early in the period on Mon could minimize
the threat for more organized activity later in the day, but
confidence in the details remains rather low at this time. If the
overnight/early morning activity is less robust, we could see a
window for strong/severe storms during the day on Monday along a
southeastward advancing cold front. Some post frontal precipitation
may linger across the area Monday night into Tuesday as the
mid/upper trough translates slowly eastward across the area. By
Tuesday evening/Tuesday night, showers are expected to diminish from
west to east with increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence in
the wake of the system.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated as we move into
Wed-Thu with seasonably mild temperatures expected to linger
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Mostly IFR to MVFR conditions over the next 24 hours due to rain and
low clouds. At 1730Z Friday, rain was just pushing across the OK/KS
state line. Several hours of steady light rain is expected, followed
by more intermittent showers. Rain will end generally from southeast
northwest overnight into Saturday morning, however, low cigs are
expected to develop quickly after the rain ends for most of central
KS. KCNU may see some isolated showers, but should generally miss
the bulk of the rain and low cloud impacts, and thus remain mostly
VFR. An embedded thunderstorm or two are possible with this activity
through the afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include
any TS mentions in the TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...CFH