783
FXUS63 KICT 212215
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
515 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening;
  better chances late tonight into Saturday morning

- Additional storm chances, especially at night, this weekend
  into next week

- Temperatures remain near or above normal

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, an amplified midlevel pattern remains
across the CONUS with troughing across the eastern US and ridging
across the western half. This particular pattern leaves KS
within a northwest flow regime with the core of the ridge southwest
of the state across the Four Corners region. A low and midlevel
baroclinic zone extends from western SD through portions of
eastern KS. Regional radar reveals a cluster of thunderstorm
activity across portions of central and eastern NE. This is
activity is being further enhanced by a 40-50 kt midlevel speed
max diving southeast across SD/NE. The downstream across
northern KS seems quite unfavorable for storm maintenance with
considerable convective inhibition. Latest mesoanalysis reveals
150-200 J/kg of inhibition. As a result, short range guidance
lends little help with how this convection will evolve into KS.
Given the lack of well-established, deep-convection combined
with the increasing convective inhibition into KS, hedging to a
mostly dry afternoon/evening across the forecast area. Short
term satellite/radar trends will need to be monitored.

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late tonight into
Saturday morning as portions of northern/eastern KS remain
within the low/level baroclinic zone. A strengthening LLJ of
30-35 kt should provide a focal point for additional storm
development from western into central NE. Mean storm motions are
expected to be towards the southeast, bringing storm chances
into portions of northern/eastern KS generally after 2-3 AM. The
best storm chances extend generally along/east of I-135.
Elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg combined with effective
shear of 30-35 kt could support a large hail potential. DCAPE
values of 1000-1200 J/kg would support a damaging wind potential
as well. As the LLJ weakens Saturday morning, the coverage of
shower and storm activity should diminish.

The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow
regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a
near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small storm
chances, especially at night. This includes Saturday night into
Sunday morning as convection develops across CO and gradually moves
east into the Plains. The lack of obvious forcing for ascent lends
to low confidence in storm coverage/timing.

In regards to temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will
remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days.
This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state
with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of
northeast KS. Short term satellite trends suggest additional
development across central KS is unlikely for the remainder of
the evening. More-widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is
possible late tonight into Saturday morning with the greatest
potential along and east of Interstate 135. Model agreement has
increased sufficiently to include a TEMPO -TSRA mention at SLN.
Beyond SLN, confidence remains too low for a prevailing or TEMPO
mention but have introduced PROB30s for -TSRA. Later outlooks
will need to reevaluate the potential.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF