273
FXUS63 KICT 020806
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another morning of patchy fog across mainly central KS.

- A few showers and storms will linger across southeast KS
  mainly this morning.

- Cold front will push through Wednesday afternoon/evening with
  another shot of cold air moving through Thursday night into
  Fri morning. A few severe storms will be possible with the
  front Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse tracking
southeast across northwest AR/southwest MO with a more synoptic
upper low positioned over the Eastern Great Lakes region. 88D
mosaic shows what appears to be an MCV rotating just west of
Emporia. At the surface, cold front extends from the TX
Panhandle and across southern OK.

Just like last few days, low levels remain very saturated with
IFR/LIFR cigs starting to spill south across central KS. We
should at least see some patchy fog develop in the next few
hours and persist through around 15z.

Currently expecting a few showers and storms to continue through
at least this morning across the Flint Hills into southeast KS
as the MCV slowly sinks southeast. Not of the question that a
few showers/storms may linger into the afternoon hours over far
southeast KS. Just like the last few days, highs today will be
in the 75 to 80 degree range.

Models remain consistent in digging a deep upper low into the
Western Great Lakes region by Wed afternoon. This will allow a
cold front to surge across the Northern/Central Plains, moving
through our forecast area late Wed afternoon through Wed
evening. Ahead of the front, we are looking for some of the
warmer temps we`ve had in a while for Wed, with highs in the low
to mid 80s which will be close to seasonal normals for this
time of year. Storms are expected along the front as it moves
through Wed afternoon/evening and given 2,000-2,500J/KG CAPE and
35-45kts of 0-6km shear, severe storms look possible with large
hail the main threat.

A secondary piece of energy is expected to dive down the
backside of the trough on Thu into the Northern Plains and will
bring another surge of cold air through the forecast area late
Thu night into Fri morning. Showers and a few storms will once
again accompany the front and will knock highs down into the low
70s for Fri, with Sat morning lows in the low 50s. ECMWF and
GFS start to diverge on how the weekend plays out. The GFS
tracks some tropical energy off of Baja into the Southern Plains
by Sun morning and across KS by Sun afternoon/evening.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps this energy further south across
OK/TX through the weekend. This will be something to keep an eye
on as some heavy rain and potential flooding may accompany this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to build in over central and south
central KS sites early this morning, with the highest probabilities
for IFR anticipated in central KS. Currently have high confidence
that ceilings will gradually lift to VFR by mid/late morning and
prevail through the rest of the period. Expect mostly northerly
winds around 5-10 kts throughout the period as well.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK