669
FXUS63 KICT 010823
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
223 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect early this morning
  through tonight for areas along and north of Highway 54.

- Snowfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely in areas of central
  KS today with 1-2 inches possible farther south in parts of
  south-central and southeast KS.

- Closer to near normal temperatures on Tuesday before well
  below normal temperatures return on Wed and Thurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough digging and
moving towards the Central Rockies. At the surface, expansive high
pressure sits over most of the Midwest, stretching into eastern
Kansas. Snow has begun falling in northern KS and is forecast to
become more widespread as we move towards sunrise. The
aforementioned trough will move across the Central and Southern
Plains today, increasing snowfall chances in our area. Lift will
increase early this morning in central KS from the upper-level
trough coupled with the left exit region of the upper jet. This
increased lift generally falls in the DGZ, leading to efficient
snowfall rates. Additionally, these features combined with increased
low-level WAA could lead to a heavier band of snow developing in
central KS. The upper trough is progged to move east/southeast over
our area by this afternoon. This will shift snow chances south and
east into south-central KS by late morning and into southeast KS by
the early afternoon. General snowfall amounts will likely be in the
0.5 to 2" range across south-central and southeast KS, while areas
in central KS will have amounts up to 2-4". Snowfall chances will
diminish from west to east this afternoon as the upper trough moves
into the Mississippi Valley by tonight. Given surface winds will be
between 5-10 mph, blowing snow will be less of a concern, but
reduced visibility is likely especially in the heavier snow band.
HREF is showing probabilities between 70-80% of less than a mile
visibility and 30-50% of less than a half mile visibility due
to snowfall rates. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for early this morning through tonight for areas along and north
of Highway 54. High temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing with most of the area seeing highs in the upper 20s.

Tuesday and beyond... The next upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the Northern Intermountain/Northern Rockies on Tuesday then
move into the southwestern CONUS on Wednesday. Recent runs of the
GFS and ECMWF seem to have this trough lifting and moving towards
the Central Rockies Thursday night. Low chances (around 20%) remain
for a wintry mix on Thursday night into Friday, though confidence is
low at this time. Trends will continue to monitored, stay tuned!

Outside of precipitation, closer to near normal temperatures are
likely on Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s,
though this could be too warm in areas that accumulate more
snowfall. Well below normal temperatures will return on Wednesday as
another cold front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday
afternoon. This will drop highs to around freezing on Thursday,
which is 15-20 degrees below normal. Friday and Saturday will return
to near normal temps before another cold front comes through on
Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Snow continues to be anticipated to impact all sites at some point
during this period, with the primary impacts to cigs and vsbys
remaining in central KS.

Short-term models highlight development in central KS beginning
around 08Z and expanding in coverage to impact RSL and GBD within
the 10-12Z window. Ensemble consensus supports vsbys reduced to
IFR/LIFR with the heaviest snow in the early/mid morning hours at
these sites. Snow rates will aid in vsby reduction as the system
shifts to the east and impacts SLN/HUT/ICT, though confidence is
lower in impacts making it to ICT and further east to CNU. As such,
decided to hold these sites at IFR for now and will have to AMD as
obs and model trends become available.

Snow will gradually end from west to east throughout the day.
Lingering MVFR cigs will dissipate shortly thereafter and give way
to VFR by late in the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>071-082-083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK