527
FXUS63 KICT 051753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1153 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temps for today into Saturday with a strong cold
  front ushering-in much colder air for Sunday.

- Quick warm-up to start the work week, with widespread highs in
  the mid and upper 50s for Tuesday.

- Dry conditions expected through the next 7 days with no winter
  events on the horizon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Currently have a series of upper impulses in play across the
CONUS. One is tracking across western ND/SD with another piece
of energy moving into western MO. Meanwhile, water vapor
satellite imagery is showing an additional impulse sliding
across the Tennessee Valley.

Some upper energy is expected to quickly track out of the
Northern Intermountain today and into the Central Rockies by
later this afternoon. This will result in an increase in high
and mid clouds for this afternoon into the early evening hours.
In addition, a weak surface trough will slide through the area
and will flip winds around to the west and northwest across
mainly central KS this afternoon. Did go ahead and insert some
fog across southeast KS late tonight into Sat morning. This is
expected to be the result of a weak surface ridge moving into
the area along with clearing skies.

For Sat, Polar low will migrate down across southern Ontario
with northwest flow aloft in place from the Pacific Northwest
through the Plains, with a series of upper perturbations
embedded in the flow. As the Polar low slides east, another
shot of Arctic air will spill south Saturday across the Northern
Plains into to the Upper Mississippi Vally. At the same time,
another upper impulse will track from the Northern Rockies into
the Central Plains and will provide a swath of wintry precip to
locations well north and northeast of our forecast area. Strong
cold front is expected to move through the forecast area Sat
night and will not allow highs to get out of the 30s for Sunday.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid and upper
40s.

Good news is that a progressive northwest flow pattern will
remain in place, which means that colder air will be pushed
east quickly, with maxes on Monday approaching seasonal
normals. There is good model agreement that we will see some
good downslope on Tuesday which will push highs into the mid and
upper 50s for most of the area. Beyond Tuesday, models start to
diverge on how to handle a couple fast moving impulses tracking
southeast in the northwest flow aloft. So confidence in temps
beyond Tuesday is fairy low. However, confidence remains high
that we are not looking at any significant precip events.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Stubborn low clouds and patchy fog will gradually dissipate as
the afternoon progresses over portions of south-central and
southeast Kansas, with some IFR and LIFR conditions likely. The
two TAF sites impacted will be ICT and CNU.

For late tonight through Saturday morning, another round of IFR
to LIFR conditions is likely for locations mainly
along/southeast of I-35, as boundary layer moisture advection
commences. The TAF site most impacted will be CNU, although
patchy fog could flirt with ICT and HUT.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK