445
FXUS63 KICT 071139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
539 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Short-lived cold airmass will be in place area wide today with
  highs not expected to make it out of the 30s.

- Much warmer temps for Tuesday, with many locations seeing
  highs in the 60s

- Another surge of cold air anticipated for the Friday-Saturday
  time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery currently shows some shortwave
energy stretching from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the
Central Rockies. Further north, a deep upper low is in place
from eastern Ontario into Quebec. At the surface, strong cold
front stretches from central MO into western OK with Arctic air
spilling south across the Northern Plains.

Unseasonably cold air will continue overspreading the area today
as low clouds also spill south encompassing the entire forecast
area this morning. Still looking for highs today to not make it
out of the 30s which will be around 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. Shortwave energy will quickly shift east today and
tonight, leaving the Plains in northwest flow aloft by Mon
morning. This will allow the surface high to push east along
with the colder temps. So by Mon, we will be right back into
seasonal temps. By Tue morning there is good model agreement in
a fast moving upper impulse tracking out of southwest Canada and
into the Northern Plains by early Tue evening. This will setup
great downslope conditions across all of KS which will boost
highs into the 60s for much of the forecast area on Tue. Most
records for Tue are in the 70s, so not looking to break any at
this time.

While cooler air will move-in behind the departing wave, it will
only knock temps back down to seasonal normals. In addition, all
precip associated with this shortwave will stay well north of
the forecast area. Pattern will remain very progressive, with
another upper impulse diving southeast in the northwest flow
from the Northern Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains
for Wed night into Thu morning. Just like the last couple of
systems, any precip will likely stay north of the area. A more
robust piece of energy is then forecast to track out of
Saskatchewan and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Fri
morning. The GFS is stronger with this trough compared to the
ECMWF and brings Arctic air in faster. The GFS moves it in Fri,
while the ECMWF would wait until Sat. So confidence in temps
through this period is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Main aviation concern will be low clouds today.

Cold front surged through the area overnight along with low
clouds moving-in from the north. Widespread MVFR cigs are
expected to remain in place through most of the day. One of the
changes with this TAF issuance was to keep the low clouds
around longer today with a chance they may not clear out of KCNU
until later tonight. So for now will have them clearing out of
areas west of I-135 around 18z and KSLN-KICT by around 21z.
Current thinking is that cigs will remain at the low end of
MVFR levels.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL