417
FXUS63 KICT 172346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon and evening, primarily along and west of the Kansas
  Turnpike.

- Severe weather potential continues for Monday afternoon and
  evening across the area with all hazards possible, though
  uncertainty in storm evolution persists.

- Warm and windy on Monday, with a cooldown arriving Tuesday.

- Shower and storm chances return Wednesday evening and last
  through the end of the week. Widespread severe weather is not
  expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight an
amplifying mid/upper wave traversing the Central Intermountain. At
the surface, low pressure resides in north central Kansas with the
associated dryline spanning through southwest Kansas into the
Oklahoma Panhandle and beyond.

Large-scale forcing from the approaching wave is expected to promote
the development of showers and storms later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Increasing sfc/BL convergence along the dryline is
expected to provide the main focus for storm chances across the
forecast area, especially across central Kansas where the boundary
intersects a slow-moving cold front. Per this morning`s discussion,
strong instability combined with 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear will
support the potential for supercells capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds. We continue to see the potential for landspout
tornadoes as well due to the nearly-stationary cold front and modest
3CAPE values, though the overall tornado threat appears somewhat
lower owing to relatively high cloud bases. The tornado chance
may increase following the strengthening of the LLJ and
subsequent low- level shear after 7 PM, with the greatest
potential residing once again in central Kansas.

The potent shortwave is progged to translate eastward through the
Rockies and eject into the High/Central Plains on Monday. Short-
range models (NAM/RAP) continue to place the dryline across
southwest Kansas by afternoon. Deep-layer shear in the 30-40 kt
range oriented orthogonal to the boundary alongside warm-sector
buoyancy in excess of 3000 J/kg all support the potential for
discrete supercells capable of all hazards, including very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, considerable
uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and timing of this
scenario. The higher confidence resides with the latest short-term
models suggesting storms initiating along the slow-moving cold front
draped over central Kansas in the afternoon. This front will crash
to the southeast by late afternoon/early evening, which would likely
preclude the potential for discrete storms to fire off the dryline
and into portions of the forecast area (namely, areas west of the
Flint Hills). This solution would support a messier, linear storm
mode owing to the negatively-tilted trough promoting boundary-
parallel deep-layer shear. However, should slower solutions verify
and this southward crash occur later in the period, the window for
severe to significant severe weather would increase, particularly as
low-level shear increases with the arrival of the LLJ in the
evening. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the details of this
upcoming severe event.

In addition to this severe weather threat, a deepening surface low
alongside deep mixing will result in another day of strong south
winds on Monday. Sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range alongside
gusts to 45 mph are possible in south central KS and adjacent
counties, where a Wind Advisory was issued with this forecast cycle.
For now, the period of strongest winds appears to be mid-morning
through early evening prior to the arrival of the aforementioned
cold front.

Cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are expected to persist
through Thursday in the wake of Monday evening`s cold front. We
could see residual rain chances across far southeast Kansas through
Tuesday within the post-frontal airmass. Otherwise, chances for
showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through the
end of the week as a handful of low-amplitude waves traverse the
central CONUS. Severe weather associated with these features appears
unlikely at this time. Additionally, increasing thicknesses and the
return of southerly winds are forecast to promote the return of high
temperatures in the 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms have developed just north
of where the dryline and cold front intersect in central Kansas
between the RSL and SLN terminals. This activity is expected to
linger through the evening hours while gradually building over
parts of central Kansas impacting SLN late this evening while
propagating eastward and weakening late tonight. Other more
isolated activity along the dryline could still develop and
drift into parts of south central Kansas but confidence is lower
in this area. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
over much of the area with some pockets of IFR possible in the
vicinity of the cold front in central Kansas. Strong southerly
winds may gust to around 50 mph at times this evening before
gradually subsiding. Strong and gusty southerly winds will
return to much of the area on Monday. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are also expected to develop on Monday afternoon
along a sagging cold front and VCTS was inserted in our central
KS terminals.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong south winds sustained around 25-35 mph and gusting to 45
mph will continue through the afternoon hours today. Combined
with above normal temperatures and very low RH values, these
factors will result in very high grassland fire danger in areas
primarily west of Interstate 135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094-098.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...