093
FXUS63 KICT 250440
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds will usher in cooler and drier air Tuesday.

- Mild and dry Thursday and Friday.

- Another storm system may arrive this weekend or early next
  week bringing low probabilities (20-40%) for a light wintry
  mix.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Fog, drizzle and scattered rain showers were ongoing early this
afternoon under an upper level storm system moving slowly eastward
across the area today. Under the mid/upper trough, steep mid-lvl
lapse rates and some elevated CAPE in the ~500+ J/KG range is
progged this afternoon. We could see a handful of thunderstorms
across mainly southeast KS this afternoon. Some small hail may be
possible with the strongest activity before the focus shifts east
late this afternoon/early evening.

As the system exits the region tonight, we never scour out the
residual low level moisture until we approach the predawn hours
across southeast Kansas. Fog is expected to redevelop, especially
over the Flint Hills and southeast KS before drier air is gradually
advected into the area late in the period.

A robust cold front will arrive over the area early on Tuesday as
the Clipper system moves into the Mississippi Valley area late in
the period. Peak gusts in the 40 to perhaps 45 knot range may be
possible at times in parts of central KS where a wind advisory may
be hoisted. The airmass will dry out considerably but temperatures
will only be slightly cooler and above average for late November.

Wed-Fri...A mid/upper trough is progged to move slowly eastward
across the Great Lakes area while northwest mid/upper flow prevails
upstream over the Central Plains. Some cooler air will arrive by
midweek with moderating temperatures and dry weather anticipated
late in the week. Highs in the 40s on Wed will climb into the 50s by
Thu-Fri.

Sat-Sun...We continue to see some timing differences with the next
trough which will have impacts on the weekend. The GFS tends to
support the GEFS keeping a more robust trough out west while the
ECMWF is much more progressive driving it eastward across the
Central Plains during the weekend. The EPS appears to show some
support for a slower scenario with mean H5 height anomalies further
west leading to very low confidence in precipitation over the
weekend. But other more subtle waves could bring some low
probabilities for precipitation and low pops were maintained.
Another push of cold air is expected by early next week which falls
just outside the 7-day forecast and this could come with continued
chances for wintry precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Poor aviation conditions will affect much of the area during the
overnight hours with low cigs and visibilities. Conditions will
quickly improve from west to east as a cold front with drier air
races southward during the morning hours. The drier air will
clear out the low clouds, however northwest winds will spike up
behind the frontal passage for the late morning/afternoon hours.
Northwest wind gusts around 35kts will be possible at times.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ