314
FXUS63 KICT 311147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will linger today through Monday.

- Confidence remains high that below normal temps will remain in
  place through the next 7 days with a strong cold front moving
  through Wed-Wed night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse situated
over northeast Nebraska with what looks like a potential MCV
tracking southeast across northeast KS. At the surface, broad
area of high pressure stretches across the Great Lakes with
light moist return flow across the Plains.

700mb trough will continue to slowly make its way across the
forecast area this morning and will keep at least some scattered
showers and isolated storms in place today, especially for areas
east of I-135. With a high PW airmass remaining in place, a few
burst of high rainfall rates will be possible with the more
intense showers and storms. Tonight into Mon morning, upper
impulse over eastern Nebraska will start to sink southeast and
will pass over eastern KS during the day Monday. This will keep
modest precip chances in tonight and especially Mon, especially
across eastern KS. Shower and storm chances will finally shift
southeast of the forecast area on Monday night, with dry
conditions anticipated area wide by Tuesday.

Still looking for a deep upper low to track out of
Manitoba/western Ontario and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Western Great Lakes by Wed afternoon. Did notice the
latest models have a very slight eastward shift to the upper
low, which may result in the much colder air not making it as
far southwest. Nonetheless, still looking for a significant
cold front to move through Wed night, knocking highs down into
the low 70s for Thu. A few showers and storms will likely
accompany the front as it pushes south, but not looking for any
severe storms or heavy rain. Confidence remains very high in
below normal temps continuing, even into next weekend as upper
troughing stays in place from the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, keeping the Plains in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings and fog potential
along with showers and a few storms.

IFR with some LIFR cigs developed a few hours ago for areas
generally along and west of I-135. In addition, a pocket of
dense fog developed mainly over Russell County, affecting only
KRSL. These conditions will remain in place for at least the
next few hours before lifting. Confidence is increasing that we
will see low clouds and some fog redevelop late tonight over
roughly the same areas as this morning.

Scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible today
and tonight with locations along and especially east of I-135
having the higher chances. So far this morning, lightning has
been far and few between, so will just run with VCSH for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL