681
FXUS63 KICT 200740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
240 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will continue today with a few strong to
possible low end severe storms east of the Kansas turnpike

- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected for Monday through
Wednesday

- Next chances for showers/storms will be possible for late
  Wednesday night into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The frontal boundary will move very slowly south today with storms
redeveloping along and east of the surface front for locations
generally east of the Kansas turnpike this afternoon. Depending how
much instability is realized ahead of the front there are enough
ingredients in places for a few strong to possible marginal severe
storm to materialize. This activity will move slowly east out of the
area by around midnight. Meanwhile upslope flow over western Kansas
looks to spark off another round of storms later tonight with high-
resolution models showing a possible forward propagating MCS diving
southeast. Looks like this activity will remain west of
central/south central Kansas.

Surface high pressure will build over the area for tonight into
Monday, and persist over the central plains through Wednesday. This
will give way to cooler below normal temperatures and dry weather
conditions over the region. Models show decent low level moisture
streaming northward from the Texas panhandle into western Kansas on
Wednesday. This will result in numerous showers and storms
developing over western Kansas Kansas during the day on Wednesday
with some of this activity eventually spreading east into central
Kansas late Wednesday night into Thursday. Models continue to show a
favorable signal of deeper moisture streaming into Kansas for
Thursday and Friday with a upper level wave moving across the
region. This looks to bring decent chances of showers/storms to the
area during this period. The cooler temperatures will continue into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms tonight into Sun morning.

Cold front currently stretches from near Emporia to near
Hutchinson and is continuing to slowly push south. Storms
developed a couple hours ago just south of the front and will
affect KICT for the next few hours. Some additional storms
tracked out of western KS and are now moving through KRSL-KGBD
and will impact KSLN in about an hour. The main impact from
these storms will be gusty winds in the 35 to 45 mph range,
along with some heavy rain. Some lower clouds are expected to
filter south later tonight with high confidence in MVFR levels
at KRSL-KGBD-KSLN after 10z. There is a chance these lower cigs
could make it down to KHUT. Current thinking is that they will
lift back to VFR levels by 17-18z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL