141
FXUS63 KICT 201812
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1212 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning, mainly across
southern/southeast KS; widespread rain this afternoon into Friday

- Patchy fog possible this morning

- Additional shower chances late this weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

As of 130 AM Thursday morning, shortwave midlevel ridging remains
across the central and southern Plains ahead of a strong midlevel
trough across the southwest US/Baja region. A plume of Pacific
moisture continues to overspread the southeastern half of the state.
VWP across southern KS and OK reveal modest low-level WAA, resulting
in widespread showers and thunderstorms across southeast KS.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
mainly southeast KS through the remainder of the morning hours. An
axis of 500-1000 J/kg of elevated instability remains across far
southern/southeast KS. Sufficient acceleration and veering from 1-6
km is yielding 30-35 kt of effective shear across southeast KS.
Therefore the strongest storms will continue to be capable of hail
up to quarter size. WAA will weaken after sunrise with shower/storm
coverage likely to decrease through midday. Aside from
showers/storms, the increasing low-level moisture is likely to
result in at least patchy fog areawide. Visibilities less than 1
mile are possible, especially across central KS.

Strong midlevel height falls will overspread the central Plains late
this afternoon into tonight, resulting in widespread rainfall
spreading north from OK. Additional deformation precipitation is
likely into Friday as the midlevel level trough progresses into the
MS valley. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to suggest
all of central, south-central, and southeast KS stand a 90-100% for
receiving more than 0.50" of rain through Friday evening. The
potential for more than 1" of rainfall ranges from generally 50-60%
across the entire area.

Midlevel ridging will slide into the central/southern Plains
throughout the weekend with mostly sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures in the 50s to near 60 expected. Another midlevel trough
will eject into the central Plains late Sunday into Monday, likely
producing another round of rainfall (60-70%). Long wave midlevel
troughing will settle into the eastern half of the CONUS for
midweek. The arrival of this midlevel trough will shunt a strong
surface cold front through the central Plains. Much cooler
temperatures are expected for Wednesday and beyond with highs in the
40s. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings increasing along with shower/storm chances overspreading
the entire area.

Currently have a cold front that stretches from northern MO across north-central KS. Meanwhile an
unseasonably moist airmass is slowly working north across OK and far southern KS.  MVFR cigs are
currently situated across southern KS and will continue to slowly lift north.   Widespread showers
and a few storms will start to overspread the area from south to north late this afternoon and
especially this evening as upper difluence moves over the Plains.  Confidence is high that all
sites will see showers along with IFR/LIFR cigs this evening
into Fri morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...TOP