330
FXUS63 KICT 161930
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Strong to severe storms likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
  night.

- Dry and warm to close out the week before rain chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon highlights strong mid/upper
flow over the Great Basin behind a weak shortwave traversing the
Plains. The beginnings of a weak surface trough is positioned from
northeast Colorado to northeast Nebraska, while southerly winds have
been observed over Kansas thus far today.

.TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING...

Storm development continues to be anticipated per short-term
consensus along the aforementioned surface trough this afternoon.
Shear vector orientation suggests this will quickly grow upscale
into an MCS, with steering influenced by the LLJ later this evening
into the overnight hours. Model trends continue to suggest this
activity will make it further south than originally thought, so
chances for rain have been brought as far south as the Kansas-
Oklahoma border through mid-morning. Currently thinking activity may
make it as far east as the Flint Hills before the LLJ weakens, so
not feeling too bullish on storms making it too far into far
southeast KS. With solid instability (> 2500 J/kg) and DCAPE (> 1000
J/kg), the primary threats with these storms look to be strong winds
and heavy rainfall.

.TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The surface trough is progged to move into central and northeast
Kansas throughout the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. MLCAPE
exceeding 3000 J/kg continues to appear likely out ahead of the
boundary, and with effective shear in the 30-40 kt range, the
environment will initially be conducive to supercells capable of
strong winds, large hail, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. The
exact location of this initial development remains a bit uncertain
at this point as outflow from the morning MCS is expected to be the
forcing mechanism for storms ahead of the surface trough. If
tonight`s system is able to maintain itself further south than
expected, it may favor development in areas as far south as the US-
400 corridor. However, some short-term models highlight development
as far north as the I-70 corridor before these are swept to the
southeast as the surface boundary moves through. All told, activity
is ultimately expected to grow upscale into a second MCS heading
into the late evening and overnight hours as the system slowly
propagates to the east. This slow propagation along with outflow
touching off additional convection may further provide flooding
concerns overnight into Wednesday morning. The latest CAM ensembles
carry this MCS through southeast KS before it dissipates over
southwest MO late Wednesday morning.

.WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY...

Looking ahead toward the end of the week, mid/upper ridging resumes
and is expected to lead to warm and dry conditions. Long-range
models then hint at the ridge sliding east by the weekend, bringing
southwest flow aloft back to the region and the potential for rain
to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through a good chunk of this evening.
Thereafter, thunderstorm chances will increase from the northwest,
especially across central Kansas. The primary threats with these
storms would be localized wind gusts greater than 40-50 kts, heavy
rainfall, and small hail. Uncertainty is high regarding the location
and timing of these thunderstorms, so only covered the threat with
PROB30 groups for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK