389
FXUS63 KICT 120846
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
346 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible generally east of I-135 this
  morning with small hail and gusty winds possible.

- Additional storms are forecast this afternoon through late
  tonight. Some of these could be strong to severe with up to
  golfball size hail and 60 mph winds possible.

- Mid to upper 90s return both Sunday & Monday afternoons. Heat
  indices between 100-104 are possible each afternoon.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms return late Monday
  night and will continue through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

     TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

Bottom line up front: the forecast over the next 24 hours remains
quite challenging. As of 3AM this morning, a cold front was
sagging across southern Nebraska with a broken line of
thunderstorms moving south along with it. Currently, storms are
only over portions of southeast Nebraska; however, there is some
evidence that continued maintenance of this cluster of storms
is likely to occur as storms move south across eastern Kansas
this morning. A subtle mid/upper wave is slowly trekking
eastward over the High Plains providing marginal upper level
support for broad ascent. Additionally, the LLJ and subsequent
moisture transport is nosing into north-central Kansas providing
another subtle source of ascent. An elevated instability
gradient resides across eastern Kansas, and it`s likely storms
will continue to be focused along this gradient as the cold
front pushes southward this morning. The biggest challenges with
the morning convection will be, a) the intensity of the storms
as they push southward across eastern Kansas, and b) how this
activity will impact storm chances this afternoon and evening.
At the moment, it appears as though storms across eastern Kansas
this morning will remain sub-severe, but a rouge wind gust up
to 60 mph or hail stone up to quarter size cannot be ruled out.

Like mentioned previously, the evolution of this morning`s activity
will likely have a major impact on which locations see the
potential for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. It`s likely this morning`s activity pushes the cold
front/outflow boundary further south than previously forecasted.
Generally speaking, short term guidance suggests the front will
be stalled out across southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma this
afternoon. SBCAPE along the boundary will be in the
neighborhood of 2000-2500 J/kg with effective shear around 40
knots. With this environment, any storm that develops will have
the opportunity to become strong or severe with up to golfball
size hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts possible. Confidence is
high storms will develop along the frontal boundary this
afternoon, especially given surface convergence and strong
diurnal heating. However, confidence is low on the exact
location of the boundary when CI occurs this afternoon. Later
this evening into tonight, the LLJ is forecast to ramp up again.
With the mid-level baroclinic zone bisecting the CWA, ample
mid-level WAA is likely to overspread the area leading to the
development of scattered elevated showers and storms. Again,
the confidence additional storms will develop tonight is high,
but the exact location remains in question as short term
guidance places this activity somewhere between southern Kansas
and southeast Nebraska. Regardless, storm chances will come to
an end throughout the morning hours on Sunday.

With the aforementioned frontal boundary forecast to wash out by
Sunday morning, a hot airmass will return to the region by Sunday
afternoon with highs well into the mid to upper 90s across most of
the forecast area. Monday is forecast to be potentially hotter with
some locations possibly reaching 100 Monday afternoon. With
dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, heat indices exceeding 100
appears likely each afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday. Monday
evening into Monday night, another frontal boundary is expected to
sag into portions of northern and central Kansas. This will be the
focus for another round of showers and storms Monday night into
early Tuesday morning across mainly central Kansas.

     TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Only minimal changes in the forecast have been noted for next week.
As mentioned in previous forecasts, a strong deep layer trough is
forecast to traverse into the central/northern plains by Monday, and
will be the catalyst for the aforementioned cold front sagging into
Kansas by Monday night. Mid-range guidance continues to suggest the
frontal boundary will be draped across Kansas from northeast to
southwest through much of next week. Several perturbations embedded
within zonal flow aloft will provide the lift necessary for
potentially several rounds of showers and storms next week. It
remains way too early to estimate how much rainfall will fall across
the area, but it appears a number of locations will at least see
some beneficial rainfall Tuesday through Friday of next week.
Additionally, some adjustments have been made to the temperature
forecast. Most notably, afternoon highs across southern and eastern
Kansas have been raised on Tuesday as compressional warming ahead of
the front is likely to drive temperatures into the mid to upper 90s,
although 100 cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon in a couple of
locations. The story is similar for Wednesday, though widespread
cloud cover should mitigate afternoon highs some. Eventually, the
cooler airmass will finish its push across Kansas for Thursday and
Friday putting afternoon highs in the 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM
CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A line of storms will continue to march southward overnight and
looks to push and outflow boundary southward across Kansas
during the early morning hours on Saturday. This will cause the
winds to flip around to the northeast behind the outflow. There
will be some recovery of the winds switching back to the
southeast across southern Kansas on Saturday which could set the
stage for storms to develop later in the afternoon. We
introduced some prob30 for possible storms affecting KICT and
KCNU taf sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could
support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon.
Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts
around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and
dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns
somewhat.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JC