868
FXUS63 KICT 301136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain today, especially across western and central
  Kansas. Will be a chance for a few severe storms this
  afternoon, mainly for locations west of I-135.

- Best chance for heavy rain and flooding will shift east
  tonight, with the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas having the
  higher chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Powerful upper low is currently working its way across the Desert
Southwest. What was left of Polo got quickly pulled northeast and is
now tracking across northeast NM.  At the same time a strong jet max
is also lifting into eastern NM.

A widespread area of showers and a few storms are lifting across the
TX/Ok Panhandles in response to strong upper diffluence along
with very impressive 850-700mb moisture transport. The remnants
of Polo are also aiding in the widespread rain to our
southwest. This area of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue
lifting northeast this morning and will encompass all of
western and central KS by 12z. By the early afternoon, area of
moderate/heavy rain will be lifting into north central KS as
surface low develops over the OK Panhandle. Warm front will
extend northeast from the surface low into north-central KS.
The main question for this afternoon will be if and where
surface based convection will develop. Most likely area would be
east and northeast of the sfc low, which would generally affect
our western flank, along and west of Highway 14. With very low
LCLs and high 0-3km CAPE, it`s not out of the question we see
some low topped supercells that could produce a couple brief
tornadoes, like what happened over western KS Tuesday. With
cloud bases so low, it won`t take much to get any rotation to
the ground.

Upper low will move out across the Southern High Plains tonight and
by 12z Thu will be situated over far southwest KS. The main area for
heavy rain tonight into Thu morning still looks to be from the
Flint Hills into southeast KS. This is where the better 850mb
theta-e advection will be located along with right entrance
region of strong upper jet. With extreme PWs in place, any of
the stronger showers or storms tonight will likely produce very
high rainfall rates and potential flooding. If the 12z model
data remains consistent, it`s possible we may end up needing a
flood watch for southeast KS for tonight.

Upper low will quickly track east on Thu and also start to get
sheared apart. As this occurs, precip will also shift
southeast, with only se KS still seeing rainfall for Thu night.
By 12z Fri, what is left of this system will stretch from
central MO and down through central/sw TX, with rain chances
southeast of the forecast area. Precip is then expected to
remain out of the forecast through the weekend with very
comfortable temps anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Main aviation concern will be showers and storms.

Widespread area of showers is currently lifting across western
and central KS with another around about to lift into
southwest/south central KS. This will keep showers in through
all of the morning hours for areas along and especially west of
I-135. Even though the showers do not look like much on radar,
they are dropping vis to the 2-3sm range as they pass over a
site. We may see a few more storms mix-in this afternoon into
the early evening, mainly along and west of I-135. We are still
looking for an uptick in convection tonight across southeast KS,
with some heavy rain possible. As far as cigs go, while most
sites will remain at VFR levels, we will likely see a few
pockets of MVFR levels with the heavier rainfall.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033-047>049.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL