404
FXUS63 KICT 121941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
141 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures through Saturday, with a
  possible cool down by Sunday-Monday.

- Continued dry weather through Sunday.

- Low rain chances (20-30 percent) Sunday night through Monday
  evening, with additional shower/thunderstorm chances possible
  by mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

TEMPERATURES:

Well above average temperatures are probable through at least
Saturday, and possibly extending into next week, as a broad and
anomalous upper ridge builds slowly east over the region. Forecast
highs mostly in the 70s are likely, with relatively mild overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s expected. The two warmest days will likely
be Friday and Saturday, when afternoon temperatures will be pushing
the mid-upper 70s for many locations, which will be approaching
daily record highs for Friday-Saturday. Average highs this time of
year are in the mid-upper 50s, with average lows in the 30s.

Models diverge for Sunday and Monday, with the GFS much cooler than
the ECMWF and CMC in wake of a shortwave and under the influence of
Canadian high pressure. Will continue a middle ground approach for
now until models converge on a clearer solution.

PRECIPITATION:

With the building upper ridge, precipitation chances will be zero
through Saturday night or Sunday. As we head into Sunday night and
persisting through Monday night, we are maintaining relatively low
rain chances (20-30 percent), as a compact shortwave trough
traverses over Mid-America. Model trends continue to decrease these
chances with a slower and further north shortwave placement. Stay
tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

While uncertainty is high, deterministic and ensemble consensus
supports an active weather pattern from mid next week into next
weekend (the weekend before Thanksgiving), as one or two potent
upper troughs dig across the western CONUS and eject east-northeast
onto Mid-America. This is very far out in the forecast process (7-10
days out), so stay tuned as details slowly come better into focus in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Light,
northeasterly/easterly winds early this afternoon will turn out
of the south later today for central Kansas sites and during the
early morning hours for south-central Kansas locations.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD