630
FXUS63 KICT 061137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog this morning for areas along and east of I-135, with some
  dense fog possible.

- Strong cold front moves through tonight and will bring highs
  on Sunday around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures likely for Tuesday, with many
  locations seeing low 60s for highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy tracking across the Mid
Mississippi Valley with a series of additional perturbations
from the Northern Rockies into the Central Rockies. Meanwhile, a
a deep Polar low is rotating across Ontario and is allowing some
very cold air to start moving into the Northern Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.

Clear skies and light winds have allowed some patchy fog to
develop for areas along and east of I-135. So far here in
Wichita the fog has been very shallow and patchy but has also
been fairly dense at times. Currently have a dense fog advisory
for southeast KS where moisture is somewhat deeper, but
wouldn`t be surprised if this will need to be expanded further
west if fog becomes more widespread.

The main story for tonight into Sun will be for a strong cold
front to surge through. Colder air will start to spill south
into our forecast area later tonight as a strong piece of energy
tracks out of southern Manitoba and into the Western Great
Lakes region by Sun morning. This will keep highs in the 30s on
Sun which will be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Shortwave energy will quickly track across the Plains Sun into
Sun night and will get the area back into strong northwest flow
aloft to start the work week.

There is good model agreement that a compact fast moving upper
impulse will track out of the Northern Rockies and across the
Northern/Central Plains on Tue. This will push the surface high
east and also increase lee troughing, which will setup great
downslope conditions on Tue. Still looking for highs on Tue to
be in the upper 50s and low 60s, which will be around 10 degrees
above normal highs. Pattern will remain very progressive with
another upper wave taking the same track, moving into the Mid
Mississippi Valley by Thu morning. The GFS is more robust with
this shortwave trough compared to the ECMWF and would bring
another surge of Arctic air into the area for Thu night into
Fri. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the really cold air further
northeast. So beyond the Wed time frame, confidence drops off
considerably with regards to temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and fog this morning,
mainly across southeast KS.

Fog has been steadily increasing in coverage across southeast KS
over the last few hours with this trend continuing as we speak.
Further west, fog has been more patchy and transient. Here at
KICT, fog will move-in for around an hour, and then move out and
has been very shallow. So for this morning, KCNU will have the
best shot to see LIFR conditions through at least 16z with KICT
seeing brief periods of low vis and cigs this morning. Cold
front is still expected to move through late tonight and will
flip winds around to the northwest.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ071-072-
095-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL