204
FXUS63 KICT 081741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures anticipated for Tuesday, with
  many locations seeing highs in the 60s.

- A return to below normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday,
  with low confidence on the timing of the cold front at this
  time.

- No impactful winter precip events are expected through the
  next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy tracking into the Ohio
Valley with northwest flow in place from the Northern Rockies
through the Plains. At the surface, high pressure extends from
the Western Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. Pesky low
clouds remain over most of the forecast area as we speak and
will continue to be slow to push east. They will stick around
through the morning hours and into the afternoon for areas east
of I-135.

Surface high will slide slowly southeast today as northwest flow
remains in place, which will return temps back closer to
seasonal normals. There remains good model agreement in an upper
impulse sliding across the Northern Rockies on Tue afternoon and
into the Central/Northern Plains by early Tue evening. This will
enhance lee troughing on Tue and setup some great downslope
conditions, which will bring highs in the 60s for much of the
area on Tue. Normal highs for this time of year are generally in
the mid and upper 40s. Precip associated with this wave is
still forecast to stay well north of our forecast area. In
addition, not looking for a significant cool-down behind this
impulse, with highs Wed in the 50s for Wed. At the same time, a
deep Arctic low will start to retrograde over Ontario.

Overall pattern will remain mostly unchanged as we head into
the middle of the week. A more robust upper impulse is expected
to move out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region by Fri afternoon.
Medium range models have started to diverge on how they handle
this piece of energy. The ECMWF is faster but not as deep as the
GFS. There is some agreement that some colder air will start to
work into the area on Fri with the main core of the really cold
air staying over the Northern Plains into the Upper/Mid
Mississippi Valley and through the Great Lakes region. Because
of the timing differences with this shortwave, confidence in
temps still remains low for the Fri-Sun time frame. However,
confidence is high that we are not looking at any impactful
winter precip through the next 7 days, with the main storm track
staying to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Any lingering low clouds will quickly mix out by 19-20Z with VFR
anticipated thereafter. Breezy southwest winds will impact the
area this afternoon diminishing during the early evening hours.
Breezy southwest winds gusting to 15-25 mph at times will return
on Tue afternoon while VFR prevails across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM