Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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275 FXUS63 KICT 060859 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 259 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog this morning for areas along and east of I-135, with some dense fog possible. - Strong cold front moves through tonight and will bring highs on Sunday around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. - Unseasonably warm temperatures likely for Tuesday, with many locations seeing low 60s for highs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Currently have some shortwave energy tracking across the Mid Mississippi Valley with a series of additional perturbations from the Northern Rockies into the Central Rockies. Meanwhile, a a deep Polar low is rotating across Ontario and is allowing some very cold air to start moving into the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Clear skies and light winds have allowed some patchy fog to develop for areas along and east of I-135. So far here in Wichita the fog has been very shallow and patchy but has also been fairly dense at times. Currently have a dense fog advisory for southeast KS where moisture is somewhat deeper, but wouldn`t be surprised if this will need to be expanded further west if fog becomes more widespread. The main story for tonight into Sun will be for a strong cold front to surge through. Colder air will start to spill south into our forecast area later tonight as a strong piece of energy tracks out of southern Manitoba and into the Western Great Lakes region by Sun morning. This will keep highs in the 30s on Sun which will be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Shortwave energy will quickly track across the Plains Sun into Sun night and will get the area back into strong northwest flow aloft to start the work week. There is good model agreement that a compact fast moving upper impulse will track out of the Northern Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains on Tue. This will push the surface high east and also increase lee troughing, which will setup great downslope conditions on Tue. Still looking for highs on Tue to be in the upper 50s and low 60s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal highs. Pattern will remain very progressive with another upper wave taking the same track, moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley by Thu morning. The GFS is more robust with this shortwave trough compared to the ECMWF and would bring another surge of Arctic air into the area for Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the really cold air further northeast. So beyond the Wed time frame, confidence drops off considerably with regards to temps. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 Light winds overnight will increase out of the south between 16-18Z. Gusts during the afternoon could reach between 20-25 knots. Winds will diminish across the area after 00Z. Patchy fog/mist will develop during the early morning hours, persisting through 14-16Z. Reduced visibility and low cigs will be the main impacts with this activity primarily for CNU and ICT. Low cigs will linger for CNU through midday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ072-095- 096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...AMD