236
FXUS63 KICT 030824
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
224 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air spreads south for today and Thursday with possible
  sprinkles/snow flurries today, no weather impacts expected

- Single digit wind chills for early Thursday morning

- Dry weather slated for several days across the region with warmer
temperatures for early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Current early morning surface analysis shows leading edge of
southward moving polar air approaching South Dakota/Nebraska border.
The polar air will spread into northern/central Kansas by this
afternoon and continue to move south tonight. Areas of semi-
low level saturation ahead and just behind the polar front today
could yield sprinkles/snow flurries, however dry air advection
quickly overtakes this semi-low level moistening during the
night time hours from north to south thus ending the light
precipitation chances. Winds chills will drop into the single
digits by early Thursday morning along with colder daytime highs
in the 30s. Temperatures rebound for Friday and Saturday with
the dry weather pattern continuing and near normal daytime
highs.

Saturday night into Sunday there are vast differences between GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF models with the handling of a upper level wave
diving southeast across the Rockies then ejecting out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas. GEFS ensemble trends does show this 500mb
wave with a slight slow down/deepening. The GFS model is way more
enthusiastic with its 850mb-700mb warm air advection signal
compared to ECMWF/Canadian models. We will continue to watch
model trends for this period since upper level waves that dive
southeast across the Rockies and emerge out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas with a noticeable deepening phase
typically yield interesting winter weather setups for our area.
At this time, it is a low confidence forecast given the vast
model differences. The better precipitation signal for all
models during this period still favors locations east of Kansas
mainly across Missouri. Heading into early next week long range
models are showing a warmer weather pattern with upper level
ridge amplifying over the Rockies and gradually shifting east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Main aviation concern will be low ceilings as a cold front
pushes through on Wednesday.

Cold front currently stretches from southern MN across SD and is
continuing to push south. Front is expected to move into central
KS around sunrise and the Wichita area around 18z. We should
see ceilings lower as it moves through with MVFR levels likely.
Also not out of the question that we may see some flurries or
sprinkles as the lower levels saturate with the surge of cold
air. Ceilings will start to increase by the early evening hours
area wide with VFR levels expected at all sites by around 03z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL