441
FXUS63 KICT 101729
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1129 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will move back-in for Thursday
  with colder air starting to move-in on Friday, with a more
  substantial cold surge arriving by late Saturday.

- After a cold Sunday, we quickly get back into a warming trend
  to start the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery currently shows a well
pronounced shortwave impulse tracking across eastern
Nebraska/Iowa. At the same time, a deep upper low is rotating
across eastern Ontario. At the surface, cold front stretches
from central MO, through far southeast KS and into the TX
Panhandle.

Upper wave will continue tracking quickly east today and will be
moving into the Tennessee Valley by late this afternoon. Cold
front will also continue tracking south today. However, the
airmass behind the front will only knock highs down into the
50s today, which will still be above seasonal highs. Strong
northwest flow aloft will be in place for tonight into Thu.
There is good model agreement that a weak mid/upper perturbation
will track out of southern SK/Manitoba and into the Upper/Mid
Mississippi Valley by early Fri morning. Ahead of this wave, we
are looking for great downslope conditions on Thu along with
unseasonably warm 850mb temps. This setup will provide
widespread maxes in the 60s for Thu with upper 60s likely for
locations west of I-135.

Cold front will start to progress south on Fri with colder air
slowly spilling south into the forecast area throughout the day.
The more significant cold air on Fri will be over northeast
KS/northern MO/eastern Nebraska. A more robust shortwave is then
expected to track out of south central Canada and into the
Western Great Lakes region by Sat afternoon. This will allow for
a more substantial cold surge for late Sat afternoon through
the evening hours. Behind the front, highs on Sunday are not
forecast to make it out of the 30s. The good news is that this
airmass will push east very quickly as some weak upper ridging
moves across the Plains. So by Monday, we are looking for highs
to be back near seasonal normals with even warmer temps expected
for Tuesday. Medium range models have been fairly consistent in
showing a weak upper impulse tracking across the Southern
Plains on Tuesday. However, confidence is not high enough to
insert precip chances at this time. However, even if we do end
up running with some pops with later forecasts, it doesn`t look
like it would be cold enough for a winter event.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Currently, breezy northwest winds continue across much of the
area with strong winds across at and around KCNU at 18Z. The
expectation is for winds to gradually decrease through the
afternoon and evening; however, wind gusts around 30 to 40 knots
will continue to be possible east of the Flint Hills over the
next 3-6 hours.

After 00Z, winds should drop below 10-15 knots across the area.
Winds should become variable overnight, then begin increasing
again after 12Z Thursday morning out of the south and southwest.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL