268
FXUS63 KICT 141133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
533 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible this morning, especially across central KS

- Continued above normal temperatures

- Most dry conditions are expected into early next week; rain
  chances return for the mid to latter portions of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

As of 3 AM Friday morning, a midlevel ridge axis was sliding across
the central US. A deepening trough was coming ashore along the west
coast. In addition, a shortwave trough was progressing through
Alberta and Saskatchewan with a weak, attendant surface trough axis
extending through the central Plains. At this hour, the weak trough
axis extends from near Kearney, NE to near Hays, Great Bend and
Pratt. Winds near this trough axis are less than 5 mph with dew
point depressions of 1-2 degrees. This combination is allowing
patchy fog development across central KS. Otherwise, a notable
temperature gradient exists across the forecast area with central KS
in the upper 30s to near 40 while southeast KS remains near 60.
Confidence has decreased with the fog potential across southeast KS
later this morning. Like the prior forecast discussion mentioned,
substantial moisture advection occurred throughout the day Thursday
with dew points surging into the 50s. Despite small dew point
depressions of 3-5 degrees across southeast KS, southerly winds near
10 MPH are likely to inhibit widespread fog formation.

Transitioning into today, shortwave ridging will remain across the
state with the weak surface trough across central KS. Shallow
boundary layer mixing through 900 mb will result in another
unseasonably warm afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
There is a slight chance (<20%) that a low stratocumulus field will
develop across southeast KS after sunrise lapse rates steepen within
the moist boundary layer. Should this scenario unfold temperatures
would likely remain the low 70s or upper 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough across Saskatchewan
will advance along the International border, ultimately shunting the
surface trough through the entire forecast area Saturday morning.
Northerly winds are expected in its wake. The plume of cooler
temperatures will be tied to an area of high pressure, poised to
move into central and eastern KS Sunday. As a result, temperatures
will remain in the 70s Saturday afternoon. As the surface high moves
into the state Sunday, high temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 60s.

A few rain showers cannot be entirely ruled out late Sunday night
into Monday as a compact shortwave trough, ejects from the southwest
US into the Plains. The strongest baroclinic zone will setup across
northern KS, NE, and into MO/IA. This unfortunately keeps the best
rain chances north and east of the forecast area. The best chances
for widespread rainfall across central/eastern KS continue to
be tied to a stronger midlevel trough passage for the mid and
latter portions of next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Patchy fog will continue to impact SLN/HUT/SLN through 15Z. VSBY
may briefly drop to less than 3SM through 15Z but the prevailing
VSBY should be VFR. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase to
5-10 kt by mid-morning with a few gusts up to 20 kt possible at
CNU.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF