295
FXUS63 KICT 241138
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
538 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog this morning. More
  widespread showers later this morning and into this afternoon
  before rain chances end this evening.

- Gusty northwest winds will usher in a cooler and drier airmass
  on Tuesday.

- Next system to arrive this weekend. Potential for the season`s
  first wintry precipitation?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The first wave of showers that passed through the region yesterday
has moved well to the east as of early this morning. In it`s wake,
areas of fog, drizzle, and light rain continue across many locations
in the forecast area. These conditions are expected to persist
through much of the day today, especially along and east of the I-
135 corridor. Meanwhile, the upper low that is has been the catalyst
for this wet weather continues to spin over the High Plains, and
will begin to slide eastward later today. Broad ascent will
overspread the area as the upper low/trough moves over the area, and
additional showers are expected to develop as a result. The most
widespread coverage of showers will be across portions of central
Kansas along with east of I-135. An additional quarter-inch of
rainfall is possible in these locations. As the system exits the
area tonight, the associated weak surface trough will slide eastward
into eastern Kansas, and another night of patchy fog is possible
along and east of the Flint Hills.

A fairly stout surface ridge is forecast to slide southward out of
northern plains on Tuesday and will help to tighten the pressure
gradient which will support gusty northwest winds, especially during
the afternoon hours. Model soundings continue to show a deeply mixed
boundary layer with 35 to 40 knots at the top of said boundary layer
Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, there is the potential for wind gusts
around 40-45 mph; however, NBM probabilities still only show around
10-20% odds of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph Tuesday afternoon mainly
across central Kansas. Regardless, these gusty winds will support
low-level cold air advection, and a drier and cooler air mass is
expected to settle in across the central plains Tuesday and into
early Wednesday. Cooler conditions are likely to linger through the
remainder of the week before the next system arrives this weekend.

There continues to be a strong signal from mid-to-long range
deterministic and ensemble global models that the region`s next
system should arrive this weekend, potentially as early as Friday.
There is the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation,
including the outside chance of the season`s first snowfall given
the increasing likelihood of a much colder airmass sinking into the
region. This is still about 5-7 days out, so details will need to be
ironed out over the coming days. Be sure to stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to persist through much of the
morning and afternoon hours today. Widespread drizzle and fog
this morning will gradually transition to scattered showers
later this morning and early afternoon while low cigs persist.
IFR/LIFR conditions should improve from west to east this
evening (generally after 00Z), and a mix of MVFR to VFR
conditions should take over at all TAF sites after 06Z tonight.

Winds will gradually shift from southerly to northwesterly
throughout the next 24 hours while remaining under 10 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC