087
FXUS62 KILM 040618
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
218 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Changes between this forecast package and the previous one are
minor. Unseasonable heat today and Saturday and severe weather
potential Saturday afternoon/evening remain the biggest concerns.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring
triple digit heat indices again today and Saturday. A Heat
Advisory is in effect today.

2) A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms this
weekend, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures and humidity
will bring triple digit heat indices again today and Saturday.
A Heat Advisory is in effect today.

The powerful mid and upper level ridge will spend one more day
anchored over North and South Carolina before retreating
westward on Saturday as a trough sweeps across the northeastern
quarter of the country. Today`s forecast atmospheric parameters
are little changed from yesterday and argue for a day just as
hot as we saw Thursday:

- 500 mb heights (5920 meters) about 10 meters above the 90th
  percentile for Greensboro
- 850 mb temps peaking at +21 to +22C by late afternoon, about
  3C above the 90th percentile for Greensboro

Forecast highs are in the 94-97 range inland with upper 80s
to around 90 expected on the beaches.

Although upper level heights should fall on Saturday, westerly
850 mb flow just ahead of the approaching cold front should
maintain very hot weather. Saturday may be the hottest day of
the week at the coast since westerly flow will restrict the
seabreeze and forecast highs are in the 90s everywhere including
the beaches. Our forecast for Wilmington, if correct, would
break a record set back in 2023.

Daily record highs through Saturday...
Location...........Fri 9/4......Sat 9/5
Wilmington.......100 in 1925...95 in 2023
N Myrtle Beach....99 in 1944...98 in 1944
Florence..........99 in 1954..100 in 1954
Lumberton........104 in 1925..100 in 1954


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler temperatures
early next week.

Warm subsidence aloft beneath the upper ridge should maintain
dry weather today through early Saturday afternoon. 500 mb
heights should fall by 30-40 meters between 5 PM today and 5 PM
Saturday, accompanied by a 1.5 to 2C fall in 700 mb temps as the
subsidence inversion fades. While these changes occur aloft,
the surface cold front should advance farther south through
North Carolina, likely igniting multiple clusters of
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid level flow should tend
to push these storms southeastward, impacting our area during
the late afternoon and evening hours.

Bulk shear 0-6 km increasing to 25 knots, CAPE exceeding 3000
J/kg, and steep 0-3 km lapse rates argue for damaging winds to
be the primary risk with Saturday`s storms. I envision multiple
clusters of storms moving across the area with bowing line
segments producing strong, possibly severe, wind gusts.

The front should stall across South Carolina on Sunday, likely
serving as the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Canadian high pressure pushing southward on Monday should nudge the
front into northern Florida, but the low level E/NE wind
crossing water temps in the mid 80s offshore won`t necessarily
feel refreshing or even like an airmass change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The most significant aviation weather concern in the near-term
is the development of ground fog inland affecting the KLBT and
KFLO airports. Fog has a good potential to become dense at KFLO
before daybreak. This fog layer should remain very thin and will
likely burn off completely before 13z. Of lesser concern,
shortwave IR satellite shows bands of low cumulus clouds moving
NW toward the South Carolina beaches. These clouds have a
moderate potential to bring periodic MVFR ceilings and maybe
even some sprinkles of rain to KCRE and KMYR through 09z.

VFR conditions are expected throughout the day and into tonight.
Southerly seabreeze winds along the coast could increase to
near 12 knots this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms should become
numerous across the area late Saturday afternoon through Sunday
as a cold front arrives from the north. The highest potential
for IFR conditions in convection and briefly strong winds is
expected Saturday evening. Prevailing VFR conditions should
return by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...The Bermuda High has provided very light winds
across the Carolinas for most of the week. Falling pressures in
the vicinity of a cold front dipping south across PA and the
southern Great Lakes will begin to erode the northern portion of
the Bermuda High today and tonight. The high should weaken
substantially on Saturday as the front drops into North
Carolina.

The net effect of this will be increasing wind speeds this
afternoon, then directions veering more westerly in advance of
the front Saturday. A line of rather hefty thunderstorms may
develop along the front late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are possible.
Scattered showers and maybe a few more thunderstorms could
linger behind the front Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday should feature increasing easterly winds
as Canadian high pressure builds south along the U.S. East
Coast. Wind speeds should increase to 15-20 knots with seas
peaking at 6 feet in the 20-60 mile offshore waters, and 4-6
feet inside 20 miles Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA