776
FXUS62 KILM 241837
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
237 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little has changed with the forecast for the next several days.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...Nor`easter to bring a slew of beach hazards into the
weekend.1)

2) After scattered showers end today, the coolest airmass since
early June will build across the Carolinas.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A nor`easter developing off the Outer
Banks will intensify and only move very slowly northward into the
weekend. The gradient between this system and high pressure to the
west will bring an increasingly lengthy and strong northerly fetch.
Water will be increasingly piled into the coast as a result. Pair
this with tides that are astronomically large anyway due to a full
moon the stage is set for coastal flooding for several tide cycles,
the largest of which will be this evening and Saturday evening at
which time water levels could be a full foot above flood stage.
There is a little less confidence in how large the morning tides
will get but they do approach flood thresholds esp in NC. Large
waves will lead to minor beach erosion at NC beaches, SC beaches
should be shielded enough to prevent much erosion, if any at all.
The High Surf Advisory has been extended to 12Z, waves still falling
slightly short of criteria but the marine wind fields should keep
increasing tonight. In addition to NC`s large breaking waves
dangerous rip currents and long shore currents will also make for
beach hazards for several days.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low has been slow to move across the
area today bringing some beneficial rainfall. The low will in
time move across and offshore and team up with another mid level
trough to bring a brisk northeast flow and much cooler
temperatures to the region. By Friday morning lows should be
in the middle 50s or so.




&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level low pressure has definitely overperformed
today via really its slow nature. Restrictions have been in place
for all areas either via low clouds or showers. The showers will
continue through this evening and addressed with PROB 30 groups.
Don`t forget a potent wedge resides under these showers and will
remain in place...at least through Thursday with mainly MVFR
ceilings.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should continue for the next
several days.

&&

.MARINE...
Coastal waters headlines are essentially locked in and
need no changes. It appears the mid level low trudging across the
area is a bit slower which will later enhance the winds with phasing
offshore but gale ending time still seem reasonable followed by
strong small craft conditions.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ108.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-280-284.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK/MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK