205
FXUS62 KILM 211847
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
247 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change to forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)One more day of heat before some much needed rainfall
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...One more day of heat before some much needed
rainfall chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Despite some weakly cyclonic mid
level flow impinging from the north, a precursor to our eventual
troughiness, as well as a continued Piedmont Trough, models are
in good agreement that the area stays rain-free through
Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory will be needed for similar
areas as today. A few showers or storms may pop up Wednesday
night as a prefrontal band of moisture is shunted into the area,
though some guidance keeps this activity to our north. By
Thursday the front drops into the area. This boundary should
stall near the coast bringing a prolonged period of unsettled
weather and some much needed drought releif while breaking the
heat. Of note though that the 5 day QPF forecast from WPC has
pulled some of the higher amounts previously forecast a bit to
the north away from the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR. Clouds will tend to be confined to the mid and upper
levels. A Piedmont Trough will keep SW winds rather gusty especially
during daytime hours.

Extended Forecast...Potential for brief MVFR/IFR from storms will
gradually increase beginning Wednesday and remain possible through
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. More solid
restrictions may arrive Thursday with a frontal passage bringing the
potential for IFR CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Sunday...The gradient will be tightened between the
Piedmont Trough and offshore high pressure through early Thursday.
As Thursday progresses a front will drop down into the area and push
this gradient further out to sea. SCA currently out through
WEdnesday evening, possibly in need of a slight extension. Waves
will be predominantly wind-driven as opposed to swell driven. The
front never cleanly pushes through the area keeping the late period
winds southwesterly but with much lowers speeds allowing seas to
abate.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-024-033-
     054-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB