Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
885 FXUS62 KILM 291047 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 647 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall at times. 2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall at times. Mid-upper troughing over the eastern US will gradually weaken and lift away through this weekend while upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week. A weak front will drift over the area today with plenty of moisture in place. Precipitable water values will near 2 inches over the eastern Carolinas today, highest near the coast. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr can easily occur in a thunderstorm in this environment. Periods of enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity are expected given this setup. Should see increasing coverage through this morning, especially near the coast, followed by isolated to widely scattered afternoon activity. Heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding is the primary concern with any slow-moving thunderstorms, especially if storms end up backbuilding over the same area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week. As upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week, temperatures will rise above normal and shower/thunderstorm chances will decrease to below seasonal norms. With the core of the high pressure center shifting nearly overhead by midweek, expect well- above normal highs in the middle to potentially upper 90s. Heat Advisory criteria may be reached between Wednesday and Friday, although enough dry air in the lower atmosphere may be able to keep heat indices from reaching 105F or greater across much of the area. Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is needed, a period of mostly sunny, dry, and abnormally hot conditions is becoming more likely. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Have cut back the predominant restrictions at inland terminals through the morning. Isolated showers/storms could move over any terminal this morning, with renewed activity in the afternoon, highest coverage at the coast. Into Saturday night activity should decrease, with only low chances of showers at the coast. There`s a strong signal for IFR fog at inland terminals. Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through mid next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening through Sunday, with little to no activity expected Monday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Weak S-SW flow over the waters this morning as a weak front drifts over the eastern Carolinas, shifting toward the coast. As this front washes out and high pressure north of the area takes over, a light east to southeast flow is expected later today through Sunday night. High pressure will prevail off the coast by early next week with a return of south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts. Seas are expected to run 1-2 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi zones primarily driven by east- southeast 8-9 sec swells. Southerly 1-2 ft wind waves will gradually weaken tonight, leaving its component at 1 ft or less from Saturday onward. A longer period swell should reach the Southeast coast by Tues night into Wed. && .CLIMATE... Wilmington, NC is currently experiencing its hottest summer on record. Average temperature (the simple average of each day`s high and low temps) is currently 0.1 deg F above 2011`s average, the current record-hottest summer season. #1 2026 81.9 deg F (with four days to go) #2 2011 81.8 deg F #3 2010 81.8 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RGZ/ABW