259
FXUS62 KILM 280554
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
154 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring drier and cooler than normal weather through
Friday. Low pressure along a front to the south and east should
bring slightly better rain chances this weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure moves offshore throughout the day today and
light northerly winds will become a bit more easterly as a result.
Onshore flow should create some afternoon cumulus, surface-based dew
point depressions and low PW values should keep chances of rain at
0%.

Moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere stretches from
southwestern British Columbia, across the American Heartland, and
into the southern Appalachians. This extended plume of moisture will
filter into our region today creating periods of mostly cloudy
skies. Meanwhile, low level moisture will push onshore as high
pressure to our north and east drifts off of the Delmarva coast. The
combination of low level cumulus along the coast and upper level
cloud cover will have an impact on temperatures today. I have gone a
degree or two below the NBM, lower 80s likely for most areas, mid
80s could creep into our inland counties with some afternoon
sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to below normal rain chances
*Very low to no risk for severe storms/flash flooding, mainly Sat
*Near to below normal temps

Confidence:
*Moderate to High through Fri night
*Low to Moderate Sat/Sat night

Details: High pressure should keep it generally rain-free through at
least Fri night as moisture levels remain low despite a weak cold
front approaching Fri night. However, more moisture and mid-level
forcing Sat/Sat night will lead to at least a low risk for showers
and possibly a few storms. Limited instability/shear should keep the
severe storm risk very low at best. temps should stay near to below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to below normal rain chances
*No flash flood/severe storm risk
*Below normal temps

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details: Surface high pressure should build in early next week as a
front and likely low pressure along it stay to our south and east.
However, exact placement of these features, along with the
strength/timing of mid-level shortwaves passing through the broad
upper trough across the region, will greatly determine our rain
chances. For now we generally have the highest chances closer to the
coast. Northerly winds will keep temps below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in VFR. Light winds shift to the east this afternoon
as high pressure to our north moves offshore.

Extended Outlook... Increasing rain chances could bring intermittent
flight restrictions late Friday. Day to day showers and storms may
be possible through the weekend and early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... High pressure to the north will shift offshore
through the day today. Light northerly winds will become easterly
this afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet. Shower and storm chances may
gradually return to the outer waters late tonight.

Friday through Monday...High pressure centered to the north
will generally prevail through Sat night with no significant
winds/seas expected. Starting Sunday, strengthening high
pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the
south/southeast will lead to increasing winds/seas, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and/or 6 ft).

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21