951
FXUS62 KILM 080211
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1011 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue near the coast this
evening as the cold front and sea breeze interact. The front
will be pushed offshore tonight with dry high pressure building
in for Saturday. Another cold front moves through Sunday night
and stalls offshore. Expecting daily shower and thunderstorm
chances everyday next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes with the late evening update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front from this morning has become rather diffuse,
likely paralleling the sea breeze with dewpoints in the lower
60s inland and in the 70s at the coast. Afternoon cu is bubbling
up along this boundary yielding some showers that have just
started to have some flashes, so keeping isolated showers/thunderstorms
in for this afternoon. Tonight there looks to be a weak shortwave
moving through aloft, which should kick the lingering front
offshore while also bringing in more dry, CAA lagging slightly
behind. Went a couple degrees cooler than guidance on lows,
particularly inland, but despite clear skies overnight not
expecting much radiational cooling as that reinforcing push of
colder air should keep winds up. Lows in the low to mid 60s
inland and upper 60s at the coast. Shortwave ridging will have
high pressure building in at the surface for Saturday, maintaining
dry conditions through the period. Saturday`s sunshine should
let us reach highs near 90 but it will be noticeably less humid
as we sit in downslope flow. Expect light surface winds with an
afternoon sea breeze, with maybe some spotty aftn cu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure to the west surges southward Saturday
night through Sunday. Mostly clear skies expected Saturday
night, with lows in the mid 60s inland, near 70 at the coast.
Moisture gradually increases Sunday ahead of a cold front, but
this should only manifest in increased cloud cover by the
afternoon. Zonal flow aloft escalates the temperature, with
highs in the mid 90s inland, lower 90s at the coast.

Cold front moves through the area Sunday night. While diurnal
heating will be gone, plenty of buoyancy should allow for
scattered showers and storms to move through the area ahead of
the front. The best upper level forcing might be chasing the
moisture as the front moves through, so at the moment, no severe
weather is expected. Lows Sunday night near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Front stalls offshore, and looks to hang around there throughout
next week. Meanwhile, upper forcing from two troughs come in
Monday night into Tuesday, and then again later in the week.
Then there are the usual mesoscale features, including the
seabreeze and the Piedmont trough. Essentially, there are
chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms everyday,
particularly by Tuesday and beyond. Highs each day in the mid-
to-upper 80s. Lows each night in the mid-to-upper 60s inland to
near 70 at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Dewpoints remain
stubbornly high across the coast however as a weak front
distorted by the sea breeze remains inland. A slight concern
for BR resides in these areas until the drier air drifts in
although not enough to mention in the official forecast
currently.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected on Saturday. Restrictions possible
in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...A cold front moves offshore tonight with dry
high pressure building overhead for Saturday. Winds will be out
of the north by Sat morning near 15 kts, diminishing to near 10
kts by the afternoon where they`ll start to become more out of
the SE. Seas 1-3 ft with a 1-2 ft SE swell at 7-8 seconds.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southwesterly winds initially at
10kts increase up to 15-20kts by Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. Seas at 1-2ft increase to 2-4ft at this point. Wind gusts
don`t really appear to hit Small Craft Advisory criteria at this
time. Cold front moves through Sunday night, with winds veering
northwesterly and decreasing to 10kts by Monday morning, and seas
decrease slightly to 2-3ft. From there, variable winds Monday and
Tuesday, and seas continue to decrease a bit to 1-2ft. Winds finally
settle on southeasterly at 10kts Wednesday, with seas at 2-3ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB/LEW