251
FXUS62 KILM 010710
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated, although there are no
significant changes to the overall forecast messaging. Still
some uncertainty regarding rain amounts this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will bring above normal temps and mainly dry
weather through early Saturday with above normal rain chances
later Saturday through at least Sunday night along with cooler
temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring above normal temps and
mainly dry weather through early Saturday with above normal rain
chances later Saturday through at least Sunday night along with
cooler temps.

High pressure will continue into early Sat keeping a warming trend
through Fri night. Highs around 90 are likely inland today and
Friday with humidity slowly continuing to increase. Rain chances
will be on the increase later Saturday as high pressure weakens,
a cold front approaches and moisture/upper forcing increase.
Rain chances should remain above normal through at least Sunday
night as the front slows down and lingers over or near the
area. Trends favor a drier Monday, especially for northern/western
areas, so confidence in the latest forecast rain chances is
low. At least there is a decent chance for beneficial rainfall
over an inch, which would be very welcome considering the
ongoing drought in most areas. Still not expecting any appreciable
severe storm risk (mainly just on Sat), although locally heavy
rainfall could produce minor flooding.

Much cooler and drier air should move in Mon night with below normal
temps (highs mainly in the low 70s and lows in the 40s/50s,
coldest Tue night when many inland areas could fall into the
40s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z Thu thru 06Z Fri: High confidence in mostly VFR conditions with
generally light and variable winds. Good bet for fog/stratus
early this morning through around sunrise, although severity is
a bit uncertain as moisture still looks to be fairly shallow.

06Z Fri thru Mon: Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning
fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture through the
end of the week. Moderate to high risk for showers/storms starting
mainly Sat aftn at all terminals and continuing through Mon as a
front stalls over or near the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Rather benign marine conditions expected through much of the
weekend until Monday when high pressure building in from the
north shoves a wavering frontal boundary over the area to the
south. Hazardous conditions, including possible gales in the NC
waters, are likely starting Monday night as winds pick up out of
the N/NE. Significant wave heights could reach 6 ft within 20
nm and 7-8 ft beyond 40 nm from shore by daybreak Tue.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB