997
FXUS62 KILM 111817
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
117 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual warming trend kicks in by Wednesday, with winds
decreasing Wednesday night as another dry cold front moves
through the area. Temperatures continue to increase everyday,
becoming above normal by late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The axis of the sharp mid-upper trough which brought a brief shot of
winter weather is quickly pivoting away well offshore of the
Carolinas, with rapidly rising heights in its wake. Nevertheless,
strong cold advection and subsidence atop the boundary layer are
both acting to keep temperatures and dewpoints well-below normal
with highs this afternoon only expected to top out in the mid-upper
40s amidst gusty west to WNW winds and dewpoints mainly in the
teens. As high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast shifts eastward
and low pressure over southeastern Quebec lifts northward, the
pressure gradient is expected to slacken considerably this evening,
permitting a period of relatively light or even calm winds in some
areas. With dew points so low and clear skies in place, expect
temperatures to crash this evening and hit their lows potentially
between 03-07Z before winds pick up again during the latter half of
the night, causing temps to rebound a little before either going
steady or slowly rising thereafter. Surface low pressure tracking to
the north of Lake Superior and its attendant cold front will be the
culprit for this increase in winds, and will also help to back the
flow to southwesterly. Overnight lows are forecast to dip to around
freezing once again, except along the coast.

Enhanced southwesterly low-level flow overspreads the region from
northwest to southeast during the latter half of the night, causing
winds to pick up out of the southwest before dawn. Once the sun
rises and vertical mixing begins, tapping into this flow will result
in gusts developing fairly quickly, with speeds up to around 25kts
or so at the highest. Winds will gradually wane during the
afternoon, but gustiness should continue through most of the
daylight hours. Although broad troughing will remain over the
eastern US, southwest low-level flow and weakening high pressure
over the northern Gulf will allow temps to rebound into the low 60s
beneath sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A gusty start to an otherwise quiet midweek period. Gusty
southwest winds ahead of dry cold front will diminish quickly
into Wed night as they veer around as a dry cold front moves
across the eastern Carolinas. The very modest moisture return
will not be too noticeable and certainly will not be enough to
generate any pcp. It will help to maintain slightly higher
overnight lows Wed night and give a kickstart to a warmer day on
Thursday, but expect an overall dry and sunny period with light
NW to N winds. Temps should drop below 40 inland of the coast
both Wed night and Thurs night with better radiational cooling
Thurs night, allowing traditionally cooler spots to drop a bit
further. With a warmer start to the day on Thurs, temps will
rebound to the mid 60s most places, in mid November sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the Carolinas will get suppressed a bit
farther south through the weekend as the northern stream remains
quite active and more progressive. A ridge up the central CONUS
will maintain a NW flow over the region allowing a couple of
shortwaves to move through. A weak front should drop into the
Carolinas form the north, but does not look like it will make it
this far south. Overall, should produce some clouds around at
times, but basically, expect a dry weekend.

As the center of the high shifts south and east, a W to SW
return flow in the low levels, gradual height rises in the mid
levels and plenty of sunshine during the afternoons will
produce warming into through the weekend. Temps in the mid 60s
on Friday will reach well into the 70s by Sun. Lighter winds
initially should produce better radiationly cooling, but as the
airmass modifies, overnight lows will rise from the 40s to 50s.

By Sun night, another moisture starved front passes through
with decent SW flow ahead of it producing warmer gusty winds for
Sunday. Does not look like it will tap into much cool air behind
it and therefore expect continued above normal temps into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period amidst a very dry and
stable airmass. Current gusty winds of up to 25-30 kts should be
peaking around 18-19Z and thereafter gradually subside through this
afternoon as the low-level flow weakens, with gustiness abating
around or a little after sunset. Late tonight, increasing west-
southwest flow aloft is expected to lead to a period of LLWS,
especially at inland terminals where southwesterly surface winds
provide for some directional shear as well. KILM looks to hover
right around the 30kts LLWS threshold, depending on how fast the
surface winds get in the 11-13Z timeframe, while the coastal
terminals at the Myrtles should stay just below criteria. Within an
hour or two after sunrise, daytime heating and vertical mixing will
quickly increase surface winds and gusts, leading to LLWS criteria
no longer being met after 13Z. Gustiness will persist through the
end of the TAF period while skies remain clear.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...High pressure over the northern Gulf Coast will
result in continued offshore flow with speeds decreasing through the
first half of tonight as the pressure gradient weakens. However,
speeds will pick up again after midnight and the direction will back
to WSW well ahead of a cold front crossing the Midwest. SCA
conditions are expected to return on Wednesday morning mainly driven
by gusts of 25-30 kts, although some 6 ft seas are likely, mainly in
the waters southeast of Cape Fear.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Gusty SW winds and SCA
conditions will start the period, but will quickly drop off Wed
night into Thurs as a dry cold front moves through and high
pressure settles across the Southeast and adjacent waters. Winds
come around to the NW through early Thurs, dropping from up to
20 to 25 kts Wed evening down to 5 to 10 kts by Thurs night.
Seas will drop from near 6 ft in outer waters down to 3 ft or
less by late Thurs.

Winds will back around to a more westerly flow into the weekend
as the high settles south,. By Sat night into Sun winds will
back farther and will pick up through Sun. May be back in SCA
conditions ahead of an approaching cold front late Sun.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
 for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW