959
FXUS62 KILM 300609
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
109 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore today bringing a brief warmup
before a cold front moves through tonight. Unsettled weather is
then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as low
pressure moves through the area. Dry high pressure will return
Wednesday through probably Thursday night before rain chances
return as another storm system likely impacts the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With surface high pressure moving further off the Northeast coast
today, and coastal trough pushing onshore this morning, return flow
will dominate today leading to warmer temps. Warming will be felt
the most across coastal counties where high temps today are
forecasted in the upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. Inland,
especially along and west of I-95, low-level inversion of cooler air
looks to hang on during the day, maintaining mostly cloudy skies and
afternoon highs in the upper 50s - low 60s.

Cold front moves across the area tonight. While some PVA aloft will
accompany the frontal passage, there is only a 30% chance of showers
ahead of and along the front with rather low QPF. Cool, dry air
behind the front, with low temps in the upper 30s inland and low 40s
near the coast by Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*Hazards: Widespread hazardous weather is not expected (see below
  for very low severe storm threat east of I-95 Tue)
*Rain Chances: None Mon; Moderate to High Mon night; High Tue; Low
  to Moderate Tue night
*Temps: Below normal Mon; Near normal Mon night; Below normal
  (inland) to above normal (coast) Tue; below normal Tue night
*Confidence: High thru Mon; Moderate Mon night thru Tue night

Details: High pressure will be building in from the north Mon
keeping it dry but cool. However, mid-level energy and a developing
coastal trough at the surface will lead to increasing moisture and
rain chances. Probably a few tenths of an inch for most locales with
several tenths possible in a few spots, especially well inland,
mainly in SC. Could even see a few thunderstorms toward daybreak
Tue, especially near the coast as a coastal warm front tries to push
inland. Steadier and heavier rain is expected Tue as an inland
strengthening low pressure likely tracks through the area. However,
the exact storm track is still a bit uncertain and this will
determine whether any warmer/more unstable air offshore can advect
inland prior to the passage of the low. If the coastal warm front
can progress inland there will at least be a non-zero (but still
very low) risk for a severe storm given the very strong low-level
helicity and deep layer shear in place. The main hazards would be
damaging winds along with an isolated tornado. Rain will end from SW
to NE Tue night as the low moves away to the NE. Storm total
rainfall (Mon night thru Tue night) should exceed an inch across the
entire area so definitely some much needed rainfall given the
ongoing drought conditions over much of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely which could lead to minor urban flooding, mainly
in low-lying and poor-drainage areas. Although instability should be
limited due to cooler onshore winds, there will be plenty of deep
layer shear in place so can`t completely rule out a severe storm
Tue, especially east of I-95 and inland from the immediate coast.
Mostly near to below normal temps expected through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*Hazards: Widespread hazardous weather is not expected
*Rain Chances: None thru Thu; Very Low Thu night; Low to Moderate
  Fri; Moderate to High Fri night/Sat
*Temps: Below normal, except near normal Fri night
*Confidence: Moderate to High thru Thu night; Moderate Fri thru Sat

Details: Strengthening low pressure inland Tue will be moving NE
thru the day although the exact track is a bit uncertain. This will
largely determine how much warmer and slightly more unstable air can
move inland which will determine if there is any chance at all of a
severe storm. At this point chances still appear very low despite
the strong deep layer shear due to the fact that warmer air well
offshore will likely be cooled somewhat over the chillier shelf
waters closer to the coast. Once the low moves by to the north the
trailing cold front will move through later Tue/Tue night bringing
colder/drier air back to the area which will remain due to high
pressure through at least Thu. May see light rain again as early as
late Thu night as moisture begins to stream eastward ahead of
another storm system with slightly better chances on Fri, although
still some decent uncertainty this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered to broken 6-7 kft cloud deck will continue expanding
across the area over the next few hours. This cloud deck will break
up during the day, though BKN clouds may linger at inland terminals
(along and west of I-95) throughout TAF period. There is a window
where MVFR cigs may impact KFLO this morning, with low cloud deck
currently well west of the area slowly expanding eastward. Lower
confidence in potential flight restrictions at KMYR and KCRE due to
low clouds around 1500-2000 ft moving onshore. If the low clouds
impact coastal SC terminals, conditions will improve around sunrise.

VFR conditions during the day today with partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Winds remain fairly light, veering from east-northeast early
this morning to south-southwesterly by this afternoon. Cold front
approaches the area late today, moving across the area during tail
end of TAF period. Light showers will accompany frontal passage,
with a chance of MVFR cigs.

Extended Outlook...A storm moving up from the Gulf will bring
lowered flight restrictions Monday night into Tuesday with low
clouds possibly down to IFR, and rain leading to MVFR or worse
visibility. ILM may also have LLWS on Tuesday in addition to
possible gusty thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Southeasterly winds across the local coastal
waters this morning will shift to light southerlies this afternoon
as high pressure shifts off the Northeast coast. A cold front will
move offshore tonight, with winds turning northerly by dawn Monday
and strengthening to 15-20 kts. Scattered light showers may
accompany the frontal passage, with very low chance of thunder over
the waters. Seas 2-3 ft today through tonight, combination of SE
swell and wind chop.

Monday through Thursday...High confidence through Mon with lower
confidence thereafter through Tue night, then high confidence again
Wed thru Thu. High pressure will briefly build from the north Mon
before a coastal trough develops Mon night. The trough will likely
shift inland late Mon night and/or early Tue as a warm front. A low
strengthening low pressure system will then likely traverse this
front just inland from the NE SC and SE NC coasts Tue which will be
followed by a trailing cold frontal passage late Tue/Tue night.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Mon/Mon night and
likely Tue into Tue night. A Gale Warning may even be needed Tue
morning depending on the strength/track of inland low pressure and
how much mixing can occur over the chilly nearshore waters.  High
pressure will then return Wed through Thu with improving
conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO