472
FXUS62 KILM 060617
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
217 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will bring an end to the warm stretch of
weather beginning Thursday. The front itself will only bring
minor rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much change in the pattern today with sfc high pressure still
centered off to the NE and weak upr-level ridging along the eastern
seaboard. Onshore low-level flow continues, breezy at times at the
sfc, with isolated showers near the SC coast this morning as has
already been the case since midnight. Confidence is not particularly
high that these showers will continue all day, but will reevaluate
in future updates. Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy sky on average
with temps slightly above normal for early October...highs in the
low/mid 80s with lows tonight in the 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect another warm and mostly dry day Tuesday with
subtle troughing bringing in a cold front from the west Wednesday.
Pops seem reasonable and consistent just under likely with the
system. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s warming a bit from
the past few sessions with lows in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period continues to look interesting as
the front moving across midweek stalls just offshore. With the mid
level trough meandering in the southeast and in some ensemble
solutions cutting off the baroclinic zone becomes active. Some
solutions are rather wet for coastal areas as well. For now there is
good agreement among offices the bulk of the activity will remain
offshore or aligned just along the coast. Temperatures will
certainly take a hit with the behind the front and developing NE
flow with highs dropping into the 70s and lows settling nicely in
the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light onshore flow and mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. For
the Grand Strand airports, a brief MVFR restriction and rain shower
will be possible through the morning hours today. A low-level jet
overhead should limit chances for stratus or fog. More high clouds
across the area today with winds gusty at times for coastal
terminals.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions prevail. May have some patchy fog
during the early morning Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances
return starting midweek as a cold front approaches from the
west.


&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Easterly winds averaging ~15 kt continue through
tonight with sfc high pressure centered off to the NE. 12-13 second
easterly swell also continues, as does a SCA for 6 ft seas out 15-
20nm until early this evening, with seas 3-5 ft thereafter for
tonight.

Tuesday through Friday...East to southeast winds will be in place
Tuesday and most of Wednesday on the order of 10-15 knots with
significant seas of 2- 4 feet. A dramatic change is in store the
from that point as a strong NE flow develops in the wake of a
front. Certainly small craft conditions seem a given and in the
end most likely gale conditions. Significant seas will increase
to 3-8 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and rising astronomical tides due to the full moon
today will bring minor tidal flooding with each high tide cycle
across the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River including
downtown Wilmington at least through the first half of this
week.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS