305
FXUS62 KILM 021819
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
219 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast lows for tonight have been increased by 1-2 degrees.
Concern is building for possible heavy rainfall Saturday
afternoon and evening near the stalled cold front. Confidence
has also increased concerning a long duration of adverse marine
weather conditions behind the front next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this
weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

2) A Canadian airmass building in behind the front will bring
several days of cool, dry air next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

An unseasonably strong upper level ridge has kept the Carolinas
dry for the past several days. The ridge and its associated
surface high near Bermuda will both weaken over the next couple
of days, allowing a plume of tropical moisture to push across
the Carolinas.

Back-trajectories reveal the incoming 850-700 mb airmass originates
from the Caribbean and Gulf which explains precipitable water
rising to 2.2 to 2.4 inches Saturday into Sunday. This is just
above the 90th percentile climatological values for early
October at both the CHS and MHX upper air sites.

The erosion of the subsidence inversion with the decaying ridge
the introduction of deep tropical moisture wouldn`t guarantee
showers and storms on their own, but a cold front should dip
into southern North Carolina and stall Saturday afternoon. This
boundary should become the focus for convection. HREF
probabilities for 1+ and 2+ inches of rain are actually pretty
impressive from Pender County westward across Elizabethtown,
Lumberton, and Bennettsville. I would not be at all surprised to
see the need for flood advisories in this area Saturday
afternoon/evening. Overall bulk shear and helicity values should
remain weak on Saturday, but low LCL heights plus storm motion
parallel to the stalled synoptic front could lead to some
convective organization along the state line into SE North
Carolina.

Farther south across the Grand Strand and southern half of the Pee
Dee region, most model blends and statistical MOS guidance
still show better than 50 percent chances of rain on Saturday,
but identifying the trigger is less certain here. If this area
were to remain dry Saturday, later CAM runs would likely
identify the trend first.

The stalled front should return north late Saturday night into
Sunday, but the airmass may still support scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms. The same front will make a second visit to
the area Sunday night, likely moving offshore before daybreak
Monday. An upper level trough moving southeastward behind the
front should sweep across the area Monday, undercutting the
tropical moisture aloft with dry Canadian air being pushed south
by high pressure over the western Great Lakes. This will lead
to rain ending from NW to SE with clouds clearing a bit slower.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A Canadian airmass building in behind the front
will bring several days of cool, dry air next week.

1025 mb high pressure centered across Wisconsin on Monday should
push cool, dry Canadian air southward into the Carolinas behind
the departing surface front. This should bring several days of
very comfortable conditions comparable to what we experienced
back on September 24-26. Forecast highs for Tuesday and
Wednesday are only in the lower 70s with nighttime lows
anticipated to reach the 40s inland and 50s along the coast. The
airmass should begin to moderate Thursday with lighter
northeasterly flow and dry weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With the possible exception of intermittent MVFR ceilings in
cumulus clouds at KMYR this afternoon, VFR conditions should
persist through at least 06z tonight. There is a moderate
potential for MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility to develop
late tonight at KILM, KLBT, and KFLO, and a low potential at
KCRE as this very humid airmass remains across the area. These
conditions should clear up after sunrise.

Gulf moisture and an approaching front should help create
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across the
eastern Carolinas on Saturday. Increasing convective coverage
has led to the introduction of PROB30 groups for showers and
t-storms late Saturday morning at KILM, KLBT, and KFLO.

Extended Outlook...There is a high potential for ceiling and
visibility impacts from showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night at KLBT, and a moderate potential
elsewhere. Showers and a few storms should continue into Sunday,
transitioning over to stratiform rain with the potential for
low stratus ceilings beneath the precipitation-generating clouds
aloft Sunday night. Rain should clear out from NW to SE during
the day Monday as drier Canadian air undercuts the moisture
aloft. Breezy NE winds are expected on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday night...Late-season Bermuda high pressure will
weaken and retreat eastward this weekend as a cold front
approaches from the north. The front will make its first move at
the area Saturday afternoon, but should stall near or just
north of Cape Fear before returning north again for Saturday
night and Sunday. Generally light winds are expected south of
the front, except locally stronger and gusty in the vicinity of
showers and thunderstorms which should increase in coverage this
weekend.

The front should finally push off the coast Sunday night with a
shift to northeasterly directions expected. There may not be a
significant increase in wind speeds until Monday afternoon or
Monday night when a surge of cooler Canadian air arrives. We are
looking at increasing confidence for Small Craft Advisory
conditions for both winds and seas Monday night into Tuesday,
with some potential for gusts to gale force, especially over the
20-60 mile offshore waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA