345
FXUS62 KILM 242335
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough develops into tonight and will lift north as a
warm front on Tuesday bringing above-normal temperatures and
low rain chances through Wednesday. A strong cold front will
move through by Thursday bringing chilly air into the region.
Expect well-below normal temperatures and much drier conditions
Thanksgiving Day through Saturday before high pressure moves
off the coast early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes made to previous forecast. 0z aviation discussion
below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure from the north will shift east through tonight
with center moving off the Delmarva coast. The high will
continue to extend back into inland Carolinas while a coastal
trough becomes more pronounced. The low level flow will increase
out of the S to SW while weaker sfc flow veers around. Weak
isentropic lift into early Tues could produce spotty pcp as
moisture increases slowly, and models show possible shwrs
associated with coastal trough pushing inland and north through
Tue before whole area ends up in WAA as coastal trough lifts
north as a warm front. The mid levels remain fairly dry with
mainly shallow moisture and then some upper level moisture
present as ridge aloft shifts eastward tonight into Tues. Should
see a drop off of temps initially as winds lighten and air mass
remains dry, but as onshore flow develops, expect a bit of
warming, especially close to the coast. Temps should be down in
the mid to around 50 most places and should reach between 70 and
75 most places on Tues depending on variation in cloud cover
and pcp.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An approaching mid-upper trough will drive a cold front across the
Appalachians over Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before
slowing down west of the area. Shortwave impulses ahead of the
trough should lead to at least isolated light showers affecting the
coastal areas during the evening, but as the flow aloft veers
increasingly southwesterly, these should move away early on Tuesday
night. However, as the surface cold front draws nearer from the west
and slows down, weakening upper support and subsequently weak
surface convergence should support a decaying band of showers making
it into the forecast area, mainly during the afternoon on Wednesday.
Deep-layer southwest flow in the warm sector should support a mix of
clouds and sun with high temps reaching well-above normal, with some
areas likely to eclipse 80F if sky cover permits. Daytime heating of
a relatively moist air mass (e.g., low to perhaps mid-60s dew points
with pwats around 1.25-1.5") should yield somewhere in the range of
250-750 J/kg of SBCAPE, so isolated showers and thunderstorms can
still develop ahead of this front as it crosses the area during the
afternoon and evening, but weak forcing will keep coverage
limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front should move offshore during the first half of
Wednesday night with breezy northwest winds taking over behind it,
causing a rapid drop in temperatures which should bottom out in the
40s by sunrise Thursday. Strong cold and dry advection will continue
through Friday as high pressure with a long fetch into western
Canada builds in while a strong closed low wraps up over southern
Ontario and shifts across Quebec through Friday, resulting in well-
below-normal highs in the 50s. Pwats should drop to around 0.25" on
Thursday as very dry air and deep-layer subsidence take over,
reflected by dew points dropping well into the 20s or even into the
teens. Overnight lows Thursday night and Friday night are forecast
to dip to near or below freezing, with winds being a limiting factor
in how cold it gets on Thursday night while Friday night looks like
a much better setup for a widespread freeze, especially as a
secondary surge of dry air arrives with even lower dew points
streaming in on Friday night. As the cold high pressure center
passes to the north on Saturday, it appears one more day of highs in
the 50s and lows in the 30s will be in store until the flow switches
to onshore on Sunday and temps rebound.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through at least midday Tuesday.
Scattered cirrus tonight with light easterly winds. Coastal
trough offshore may push shallow isolated showers onshore during
predawn hours into early tomorrow morning, but coverage and
impacts expected to be minimal so kept out of TAFs. Isentropic
lift associated with the coastal trough becomes slightly deeper
tomorrow afternoon, and we could see MVFR cigs develop at
coastal terminals after 18z Tuesday along with scattered
showers. Inland terminals are expected to remain VFR through 0z
TAF period. Southerly winds 5-10 kts during the day Tuesday.

Extended Forecast...MVFR conditions possible at times with a few
-SHRA/BR Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next cold front
approaches from the west. This boundary is expected to move
offshore Wed night with a much drier column/VFR conditions in
its wake Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...A coastal trough will develop into tonight and
will push inland and north as a warm front on Tues. The winds
will continue to veer around and the onshore push overnight
into Tues may push seas up a foot or so, but overall seas near
2 ft may reach 3 ft by Tues aftn. E-NE winds this aftn will
become SE into Tues and eventually S as warm front lifts north
through late Tue, remaining around 10 kts through most of the
period.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Ahead of an approaching cold
front, winds increase to around 15 kts and veer to southwesterly
for Tuesday night through Wednesday, with the frontal passage
over Wednesday night turning the winds to northwesterly for
Thursday and pushing winds up to around 15-20 kts. Seas will
gradually increase from 1-3 ft on Tuesday to 2-4 ft on Wednesday
before subsiding back to 1-3 ft on Thursday. A secondary surge
of dry air arriving over Thursday night should nudge winds up to
15-20 kts, with gusts close to SCA criteria. The primary
contributor to the wave spectrum will be wind waves with a
period around 4-6 sec ahead of the cold front, becoming 3-4 sec
behind the front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RGZ/ABW