Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
569 FXUS62 KILM 140527 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1227 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z Taf Discussion updated. No improvement in forecast confidence concerning rainfall amounts Sunday into Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Shallow and patchy freezing fog possible through Saturday morning east of I-95. 2) Beneficial rainfall on Sunday lingers into Monday. However, confidence in rainfall amounts remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Shallow and patchy freezing fog possible through Saturday morning east of I-95. With calm winds and clear skies, temperatures are dropping quickly tonight, with minimum temperatures in the upper 20s by Saturday morning (low to mid 20s for traditional cold spots). While moisture is quite shallow with abundant dry air aloft, there is enough surface moisture for patchy fog through this morning, mainly east of I-95. While fog will be shallow, it may be just deep enough to impact roads. And with temperature below 32F, patchy freezing fog will be a concern for early morning travelers. Any fog will mix out quickly after sunrise. KEY MESSAGE 2...Beneficial rainfall on Sunday lingers into Monday. However, confidence in rainfall amounts remains low. High confidence in a southern stream system crossing the Deep South this weekend in the form of a stacked low. Shortwave ridge at 5h ahead of the low limits moisture return until the system is on the doorstep. At that point deep moisture surges with precipitable water jumping from 60-80% of normal Sat evening to almost 200% of normal in just 12 hours. Despite the abundant moisture still have concerns about forcing/dynamics. The stacked low passing south of the local area is less than ideal, limiting instability and dynamics. All of the guidance continues to show healthy convection along the eastern Gulf Coast, extending offshore. Studies from the early 2000s suggested that a combination of moisture consumption and increased stability due to convective overturning are 2 of the factors that contribute to rainfall being over forecast. Although the study is over 20 years old, this continues to be something this forecaster has seen the guidance struggle with time and time again over the years. The trend has been a reduction in the total QPF and overall that trend is continuing with the 00Z guidance. Even within the ensemble suits the trend has been decreasing probabilities of 1" in the EC/GFS and their AI counterparts. Only the CMC holds onto roughly 50% probability of 1". For 0.50" the story is the quite different with almost all agreeing on 80% or greater probability of half an inch. So despite the presence of excessive moisture, precipitable water peaks at over 250% of normal, the weak forcing and aforementioned environmental factors suggests QPF on the order of 0.50-0.75". As there will be some embedded convection, especially later Sun, locally higher amounts are certainly possible, but areas approaching 1" are likely to be the exception and not the rule. However, the prolonged nature of the event will certainly be beneficial as far as the drought goes. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR. Exception will be patchy fog through morning hours. Any fog is expected to remain shallow, with best chance of shallow fog east of I-95 (mainly KCRE and a few hours at KILM). Any fog will dissipate quickly this morning. Clear skies to start the day before high clouds move in from the west this afternoon. Winds remain relatively light around 5 kts or less. Extended Forecast...VFR conditions Sat evening. Flight restrictions likely later Sat night into Mon as a low pressure system affects the area. VFR returns early next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure overhead this morning shifts offshore, with light northeasterly winds over the waters early today shifting to southeasterly this evening. Seas 1-2 ft, primarily as a NE swell. Sunday through Wednesday... Gradient starts to tighten up Sun as high pressure shifts offshore and low pressure approaches from the west. Speeds may touch 20 kt, but the prolonged period of southerly fetch will build seas over 6 ft late Sun. Winds veer to northwest Sun night into Mon as the low passes to the south. Secondary low keeps the gradient tight into midday Mon, holding northeast flow around 20 kt and seas over 6 ft into Mon afternoon before winds and seas start to decrease. High pressure builds in from the west Tue then shifts offshore Wed with return flow setting up. Speeds under 10 kt Tue with the gradient on the weak side. Gradient becomes a little more defined mid-week when the high slips offshore, but NBM winds are too high (known bias in warm advection/southerly flow) and the operational solutions of a solid 15 kt are much more realistic vs the 20-25 kt offered by the NBM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...III/VAO DISCUSSION...III/VAO AVIATION...VAO MARINE...III/VAO