776
FXUS62 KILM 231053
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
650 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, coastal breezes,
and near to below normal temperatures through mid next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions
are expected through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather,
coastal breezes, and near to below normal temperatures through mid
next week.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather for the next week
leading to dry conditions and generally near to below normal
temperatures. A few showers could brush the coast though starting
this weekend as low-level moisture gets pulled in from the Atlantic,
especially around Cape Fear.

Low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to a tightening
of the pressure gradient between it and high pressure building from
the north. As a result, northeasterly winds will pick up this
weekend, especially near the coast where gusts to around 35 mph are
expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf
conditions are expected through at least early next week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high
pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas
will lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions. Also, increasing
astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue
along the lower Cape Fear River during each high tide cycle,
initially along the SE NC coast and lower Cape Fear River and then
spreading southward along the NE SC coast.

High Surf: Elevated seas reaching to around 10 ft within 20 nm of
shore could lead to 6+ ft breaking waves on the beaches along with
some beach erosion, especially the E-facing beaches in New Hanover
and Georgetown Counties.

Marine: See the Marine section below for details regarding marine
hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence for VFR. Light and var winds to pick up out of the N
to NE once mixing ensues.

06Z Sat thru Tue: VFR to prevail with NE winds gusting to around 25
knots at times this weekend. Low chances for MVFR/IFR cigs starting
late tonight, mainly near the coast, as low-level moisture
convergence increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High pressure to the north will prevail through
the period. Meanwhile, low pressure near The Bahamas will slowly
strengthen leading to increasing NE winds and building seas locally.
Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected starting tonight
with gusts near gale-force at times. As such, we have raised a Gale
Watch for the offshore waters starting tonight and running through
Monday. Conditions should then improve a bit into Tue, but still
likely to see Small Craft Advisory conditions for at least 6+ ft
seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for
NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Monday evening for AMZ280-
     284.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB