401
FXUS62 KILM 140602
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
202 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build through Wednesday leading to a warming
trend. A passing dry cold front Wednesday night will usher in
the coolest air since Spring. The late week period will feature
another warmup until the next cold front arrives Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface and upper low off of the NC/VA coast will continue to push
offshore today. Subsidence on the western periphery of the system
will reinforce an inversion around 800 mb. While subsidence is
working its way southward for the afternoon, vorticity advection
early this morning should maintain mid and upper level cloud cover.
Despite dry air pushing southward and scouring mid to upper level
clouds during the afternoon, moisture beneath the inversion will
remain trapped and should prolong mostly cloudy skies.

While light showers are not expected today, the depth of the cloud
layer and remnant upper level energy may be enough to squeeze out a
few brief sprinkles. I have added a 10% chance of rain following
HREF theta-e convergence. Any showers that develop are unlikely to
produce the requisite QPF, but will be noticeable from a functional
standpoint. Models may be under-doing the moisture within the
boundary layer which also prompted a minimal increase in PoPs.

Clouds and north winds will keep afternoon highs in the lower 70s
over the eastern half of the CWA and mid 70s over the western half.
NBM is showing the potential for upper 70s inland, but it is likely
under-representing cloud cover. Winds are unlikely to change in
strength today due to the upper level energy available during the
morning and low level mixing during the afternoon. Dry air should
overcome the remaining patches of clouds tonight. Boundary layer
winds remain elevated overnight, so temperatures won`t cool to their
clear-sky potential; expect lows in the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Rain Chances: none
*Temps: near normal Wed, then below normal Wed night thru Thu night

Confidence:
*High

Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Dry conditions
are expected with high pressure prevailing. An air mass change will
occur Wed night with drier/cooler conditions expected through Thu
night. Still likely to see the coldest temps since the spring on Thu
night where inland areas should drop into the mid 40s, with some of
the normally colder spots possibly even dipping to near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Rain Chances: none, except very low late Sun/Sun night
*Temps: below normal, except near to above normal Sat night thru Sun
night

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Dry and
cooler high pressure will prevail late week with below normal temps.
Warmer and moister conditions will then return briefly starting Sat
night as high pressure moves offshore and a southerly flow develops.
Low rain chances with very low rain amounts/thunder chances should
return late Sun and Sun night associated with a quick-moving cold
front which will bring cooler and drier conditions again Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR dominating early this morning. Can`t rule out
some shallow fog over northeastern SC (and where heavy rain occurred
in Columbus County, NC) where soils remains wet and winds remain
calm. Mid level clouds and an increase in boundary layer winds
following energy around an upper low to our north and east should
prevent fog over NC. Dry air in the mid levels should also prevent
stratus. Again, brief IFR restrictions will be possible, but too
brief to include in the TAF.

Cumulus should increase this morning. These clouds are likely to
hang around 2-3k feet AGL through the afternoon and thus MVFR
restrictions are possible for a large portion of the day. Subsidence
later in the day should bring widespread VFR tonight. Low potential
for some stratus late tonight, although low level dry air may limit
coverage.

Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Winds remain elevated today as the area of low
pressure gradually pushes offshore. Expect gusts around 20-25 knots
today under cloudy skies. Northerly flow over the nearshore waters
will surge this evening and could get close to SCA thresholds. Gusts
to 25 knots are not expected to be frequent enough to hoist the
advisory at this time and seas will be agitated, but still below the
threshold at around 4-5 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday...Moderate to high confidence through the
period. High pressure from the north will prevail through Fri before
it shifts offshore. Elevated winds/seas will continue near Small
Craft Advisory levels at times into Thu due to cooler/drier air
moving into the area, especially in the NC waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21