190
FXUS62 KILM 190732
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
332 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.
Williamsburg County was added to the Heat Advisory.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat to continue for several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat to continue for several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
With a stagnant pattern in place
conditions are not expected to change much. As such heat headlines
will be needed through at least Friday. As with the last few days
the main nuance will be tracking where mixing allows lower dewpoints
to mix down, curbing the apparent temps/heat index values to be
marginally below advisory thresholds. Guidance is also showing that
the convergence along the stalled frontal boundary (more just a
trough, really) and the sea breeze could yield isolated storm
coverage this afternoon. Gut feeling is that this will hold true but
to the same extent as yesterday where only a tiny percentage of the
CWA sees any precip given the continued dry air in the mid and sub-
cloud levels. Combine this low coverage with slow and erratic storm
motion making for low confidence in the details regarding who, if
anyone sees rain today, but the big picture remains rain-free and
hot.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR with two transient exceptions. The first is the
possibility of some MVFR fog since the persistent SW flow of the
past few nights is no longer present. But as with the past few
nights low temps have remained just warm enough to keep RH values
low so confidence is low. Second is the chance for isolated
convection along the meandering frontal boundary. Mid level and sub-
cloud dry air is going to really challenge storms to develop but
there is enough supportive guidance to warrant keeping PROB30s at
all terminals. Storm movement will be very slow and erratic leading
to the lowered confidence but it bears repeating that lowered flight
categories should be short-lived.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected much of the week
outside of any convection. Rain chances increase on Friday with
afternoon convection possible through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A front is still stalled just inland making for light and variable
winds today. Swell energy is present and out of the SE but weak and
wind waves obviously diminutive so dominant wave heights 2 to
occasionally 3 ft. Late in the week/over the weekend there may be a
slight increase in southerly flow but forecast confidence is low as
models now show the increased gradient remaining outside of the 20
nm zones. The only minor uptick in winds and seas should be confined
to the 20-60 nm zones.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB