Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
139 FXUS62 KILM 201833 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 133 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm up is on tap for Friday and Saturday with a slight chance of showers. A cold front will move through late Saturday with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week. Another frontal system will affect the area the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary over SC Lowcountry, while high pressure continues to slide down the eastern seaboard. Low clouds this morning eroded away by midday, and temperatures have rebounded into the 60s this afternoon, which is still 10-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Tonight, high pressure edges closer to the Carolinas, allowing winds to calm by sunset this evening. Even with cirrus aloft, patchy ground fog looks possible before and during sunrise Friday morning, mostly over the Pee Dee region. Lows generally bottom out in the lower 50s. Aforementioned frontal boundary in Lowcountry becomes a warm front and surges northward through the area late tonight through Friday morning. This should only manifest in some increased cloud cover, but some shortwave energy embedded in otherwise zonal flow aloft may try to squeeze out some drizzle right along the northern portions of the Pee Dee region and the NC coastal plain. Dry weather should still be the main idea, with a quick transition into the warm sector. Highs immediately shoot back up into the mid-to-upper 70s, with dewpoints also rocketing into the low-to-mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will affect the area during this period, mainly resulting increased cloudiness. There is a small chance for showers Fri night into Sat and a rumble of thunder is possible Saturday. However, coverage looks limited and rainfall amounts, if any, will be light. Temperatures should be above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will reside over the area Sunday and Monday resulting in fair weather with temperatures near normal Sunday before warming for Monday. A frontal system will affect the area Tuesday and Wednesday before cool high pressure builds into the area Thursday. There are chances for showers and maybe thunder in association with the frontal system Tuesday and Wednesday before fair weather returns for Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures will be warm Tuesday and Wednesday and be near to slightly below normal Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Currently have variable to easterly winds at 5-7 kts, which calm by sunset this evening. Even with some cirrus aloft tonight, calm winds at the surface and increased moisture in the boundary layer may allow for some ground fog to form before and during sunrise Friday morning. KFLO stands the best chance at recording MVFR visibilities, with KLBT having the second best chance. Can`t rule out very brief restrictions at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR, but this ultimately shouldn`t be a big issue. Fog erodes by around 14Z, and winds gradually pick up to a light breeze out of the southwest towards the end of the period. Some may have some VFR ceilings at 5000-6000 ft by that point. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR. Can`t rule out brief patchy fog each morning. A cold front moving through Saturday afternoon and evening may create some limited restrictions in RA, but that also comes with low confidence. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Northeasterly winds around 10 kts veer slightly to the ENE and decrease to 5-10 kts by tonight. A warm front surges northward through the area Friday morning, creating a variable wind at first, but then settling on southwesterly at 10 kts by late Friday afternoon. Seas at 2-3 ft decrease to 1-2 ft by tonight. Friday night through Tuesday... Pressure gradients with the weather features during this period don`t look particularly strong. This should limit wind speeds to 15 KT or less through most of the extended period as winds veer from s to sw Fri night to nw to nw Sat night and n to ne for Sun into Mon. Winds will further veer to e to se by Tuesday in advance of the next system. Seas should run 2 to 3 feet through much of the period with 4 footers possible ahead of the front Sat when wind speeds will be at their peak of 15 to perhaps 20 KT. Four footers are possible again Sunday northern waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...IGB MARINE...ILM