Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
369 FXUS62 KILM 041724 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1224 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the area early this week before pushing farther offshore through mid week, with a warming trend ensuing. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday in association with the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet near term period. A wave of cirrus will move overhead late tonight ahead of the high pushing in from the west. Lows tonight will be a bit tricky with the passing clouds as well as some WAA from the SW. I`ve tried to account for decent radiational cooling when the clouds shouldn`t be predominant (for several hours after sunset and then a couple before sunrise). Relatively warmer temperatures will be in our far SW areas due to the WAA, but lows will largely be in the 30s. The high will move overhead Monday with light winds and mostly clear skies. Continued warming will bring highs above normal, in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet and dry weather continues this period with the main story being increasing temperatures to above normal. Sfc high pressure will shift farther offshore with zonal flow aloft, and SW sfc winds will promote warmer days than we`ve seen as of late...high temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Above normal temps will continue for the latter half of the week as upr-level ridging develops along the eastern seaboard. Eventually a sfc cold front will move in from the west in association with a mid-level shortwave trough, but agree with previous thinking that given the ridging in place, the fropa timing and well as PoPs may end up being slower/weaker in this scenario. Maintained no higher than 20% PoPs for Friday, increasing to 30-40% for Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through at least 00Z. Moisture from the SW and cooler temperatures could bring fog to inland terminals tonight. For now coverage is expected to be patchy as cirrus streams overhead, but the clouds won`t be around for long so it`s possible coverage could fill in before sunrise Monday. VFR with light and variable winds Monday. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Monday...High pressure will build overhead through the period. NE winds ~10 kts will become light and more easterly by Monday morning. Winds may become light and variable late Monday as the high moves overhead, winds turning back to out of the southwest. Seas 1-3 ft. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue for the duration of the work week with sfc high pressure sliding farther offshore, leaving a fairly weak pressure gradient in its wake over the local waters. Sea state will mainly be characterized by wind waves, but a weak easterly 14-15 second swell could move in midweek. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LEW MARINE...MAS/LEW