Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
057 FXUS62 KILM 210543 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1243 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures warm today and Saturday with a slight chance of showers. A cold front will move through late Saturday with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week. Another frontal system will affect the area the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Areas of fog and patchy dense fog over northeastern SC will gradually dissipate through the morning as southerly flow intensifies. Warm advection increases later today as a cold front lifts back to the north. After Thursday topped out in the mid and upper 60s, temperatures could be around 10 warmer on Friday. Early low clouds and fog will maintain some uncertainty in these warm afternoon temperatures. Probabilistic guidance is showing a bi-modal distribution with highs in the lower 70s, and the current forecast of upper 70s. The addition of some mid and high clouds throughout the day also lowers confidence in the temperature forecast. A few isolated showers will move just north of the area this morning, near the intersection of some passing mid level energy and the lifting warm front. Passing light showers may clip the extreme northern tier of our forecast area prior to noon. Increased boundary layer winds and upper level clouds should limit the potential for fog tonight. Increasing dew points offshore may produce some patchy sea fog overnight, but confidence is too low to include any fog impacts to coastal communities. Mild with lows around 60. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weekend will experience a noticeable change in temperatures from Sat into Sun following the passage of a cold front later on Sat. A weak low along the front and a mid-level shortwave may lead to some showers and maybe a thunderstorm, although the timing of the shortwave and its moisture may end up being too early, limiting the amount of surface based instability. Low level convergence along the front arrives later in the day, after the deep moisture has exiting east-northeast and in the post wave subsidence regime. All in all not looking like much of a rainfall event, even though it seems likely that at least a few areas will see moisture falling from the sky. High pressure builds in behind the front with northwest flow Sat night becoming north-northeast by Sun morning. Center of the high shifts northwest of the area Sun before expanding south Sun night. Not an ideal radiational cooling setup, but will still have some radiational impacts. Temperatures above normal Sat and Sat night drop near to slightly below normal Sun and Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid-level pattern will undergo a transition next week, shifting from flat early in the week to highly amplified by mid-week. Work week starts out mild as high pressure shifts offshore and return flow develops. The warm, moist return flow and a weak trough in the region may lead to some isolated showers Tue. Warm front lifts north of the area Tue night into Wed and may be accompanied by some weak isentropic lift and elevated convection. Isolated warm sector showers remain possible Wed. However, the lack of dynamical forcing at any point Tue through Wed will keep any activity that develops light. Stronger dynamics arrive late Wed and/or Wed night as highly amplified 5h trough moves across the CONUS, pushing an impressive cold front ahead of it. Still some uncertainty with rain chances associated with the front. The parent low is well north of the area and the band of deep moisture is very narrow. It`s possible a broken line of convection will develop along the front Wed night, but far from certain. The nocturnal timing is also a limiting factor, but the strength of the front will help offset the lack of surface based instability. Much colder air arrives behind the front for the end of the week with temperatures below to well below normal for Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Areas of fog, some dense, will impact northeastern SC and may reach LBT before sunrise on Friday. IFR impacts are almost certain for these areas between now and the 12Z TAF issuance. Southerly flow will gradually scour low clouds and fog on Friday morning with VFR returning across the area by the afternoon. Boundary layer winds remain elevated tonight and should prevent radiation fog. Some low clouds or near-coast sea fog are possible. Extended Forecast... Brief ceiling/visibility restrictions are possible Saturday in isolated showers. Low confidence exists for patchy ground fog early each morning Sunday through Tuesday next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Return flow brings warm weather and increasing southerly winds later today and tonight. Poor mixing will keep gusts at or just less than 20 knots late tonight into early Saturday morning. Seas start at 1-2 feet this morning and increase this afternoon and tonight with the stronger breeze to around 2-4 feet. Moisture advection out of the southwest may produce some sea fog later today and tonight, but conditions are marginal. Winds should increase sufficiently late tonight to lower this chance. Saturday through Tuesday... Somewhat enhanced southwest flow on Sat becomes offshore Sat night into Sun following the passage of a cold front. Although there is cold advection present, the gradient post front is weaker than the gradient ahead of the front. Even as the northerly surge arrives winds will struggle to hit 20kt Sat night into Sun. Not much in the way of stronger winds aloft and despite good mixing do not expect to see much in the way of gusts. Winds decrease Sun into Mon with speeds under 15 kt Mon and Tue, becoming southeast Tue. Other than a brief foray into the realm of 5 ft late Sat, mainly well away from shore, seas will be 3 ft or less into Tue. Late Tue the onshore flow will start to push slightly higher seas beyond 20 nm into the nearshore zones. The wind wave will be dominant, first with a southwest wind wave Sat and then a northeast to east wind wave developing Sun and continuing through Tue. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM