093
FXUS62 KILM 202326
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
726 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the
previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat possibly continues into Friday.

2) Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat possibly continues into Friday.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, although
slightly cooler temps should prevail Friday given the increased
cloud/rain coverage. Despite cooler temps the humidity will remain
high and thus heat indices should peak close to 105 degrees for at
least a part of the area (especially near the coast) before showers
and thunderstorms develop. However, due to the uncertainty and
marginal nature to begin with we opted to hold off on issuing a Heat
Advisory at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible
Friday.

A trough in the jet stream and attendant cold front progressing
eastward into the Carolinas on Friday should yield scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a very low (1 out of 5)
risk for strong to severe wind gusts and/or large hail. In addition,
a very moist air mass combined with fairly weak storm motions
(mainly 20 kt or less) will lead to a slight (at least 15%) risk for
excessive rain leading to flash flooding, mainly near/west of
I-95. Inland areas should have the highest coverage of storms
as the sea breeze moves inland, although coastal areas should
get in on the rain later in the day as showers/storms drift back
east toward the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0Z Fri thru 0Z Sat: VFR conditions will be in place most of the
period. The exceptions are some MVFR to perhaps IFR fog and or
ceilings early Friday morning inland. Later in the day
convection should see more coverage than even today with PROB 30
groups to address.


18Z Fri thru Mon: Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in areas of
ground fog or low stratus Sat night/Sun morning.

Chances for thunderstorms and related MVFR to LIFR vis restrictions
will become moderate to high Friday afternoon and again Saturday
afternoon as a cold front approaches the eastern Carolinas.
Scattered thunderstorms may continue through Sunday and Monday,
mainly in the afternoons near the coast affecting KILM, KCRE, and
KMYR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Monday...Light south winds today will shift
southwest to west tonight as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Expect generally south to southwest winds to then prevail
the rest of the period as the front stalls near the coast and just
inland. No headlines expected as significant wave heights stay about
3 ft or less within 20 nm and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nm zones,
highest this weekend.

The biggest marine impact will likely be from increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday evening and continuing
through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will
likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced
visibility and possible gusty winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/ABW