307
FXUS62 KILM 030606
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
206 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain cooler weather through
tonight. Temperatures gradually increase each day starting
Thursday. Rain chances return Sunday with a cold front moving
into the area. Unsettled conditions early next week with the
front lingering in the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Air mass will be modifying slowly without too much change today. An
elongated area of high pressure extending down into the Carolinas
from the north will shift eastward allowing the cooler northerly
flow to come around to the east and then southeast by this evening.
Column will continue to remain dry as the axis of driest air aligns
down the NC coast and through our area. Pcp water values will remain
down near an inch through tonight. Overall, not much change
from yesterday with plenty of sunshine, but may feel a bit
warmer through the day into this evening. High temps will reach
the low to mid 80s and overnight lows tonight will remain in the
60s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Although the region remains under the influence of mid-level
troughing and the trough helps push a weak, moisture starved front
across the area Fri, temperatures near normal Thu rise above normal
Fri. The front is pushed across the area by the trough, but this
trough`s axis lifts north of the area Fri, taking what little cold
air there is with it. Low level flow remains out of the southwest
with the front becoming more of a trough as it washes out. The flow
aloft becomes more westerly, drying the mid-levels and preventing
any deep convection. Rain chances both days will be near zero with
little in the way of cloud cover given the very dry air and lack of
forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weekend begins with weak surface pressure pattern and a couple
lingering boundaries in the region. Deep dry air and weak mid-level
subsidence helps keep the area dry Sat despite a slight increase in
low level moisture. Temperatures above normal Sat on the back of
increasing warm advection. Forecast becomes more unsettled for the
start of next week. Front moves into the area early Sun, bringing
moisture with it. Precipitable water jumps from around 1.4" Sat to
almost 2" Sun. Mid-level subsidence weakens as 5h shortwave
approaches later in the day. Front stalls in the area Mon as
synoptic trough axis hangs back to the west. Surface high tries to
build in behind the front, but uncertain how much success it will
have given the position of the 5h trough. Should it work its way
down the coast, the resulting wedge would be short lived as mid-
level flow helps shift the center of the high to the north and west.
A lot of uncertainly in the second half of the long term, but after a
warm weekend with a stormy end it appears a period of cooler, more
unsettled weather is on tap.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Predominantly clear skies. Light northeast winds will begin to
shift around becoming more easterly with the help of the sea breeze
this afternoon and then southerly overnight tonight as the high
shifts just offshore. With such a dry column in place, may be
hard pressed to see much in the way of aftn cu.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances could return Saturday with
intermittent restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Winds will continue on a downward trend as gradient relaxes
between weakening high pressure extending down from the north
and low pressure moving well off into the Atlantic. The high
will shift over the coast today and offshore tonight into early
Thu. This will allow winds to weaken and shift around a more
E-SE direction. Winds up to 10 to 15 kts today will drop below
10 kt tonight allowing seas to subside down from 3 to 4 ft down
to 2 to 3 ft by this evening.

Thursday through Sunday...
Southwest flow develops early Thu and remains in place through
the end of the week. Gradient will keep speeds around 10 kt with
a surge closer to 15 kt each afternoon and evening as the sea
breeze develops and the Piedmont trough strengthens. A cold
front early Sun brings a shift to northerly for the start of
next week. Winds will be light for much of Sun, but very late
the gradient does start to tighten up with the northerly surge
arriving as Sun turns into Mon. Seas Generally around 2 ft
through the period with a slight increase very late Sun in
response to the northeast surge. Seas will be made up of an
easterly swell and a southerly wind wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ