Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
600 FXUS62 KILM 302332 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 732 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded the areas of fog given favorable conditions overnight. Otherwise, not many adjustments made with the latest issuance. The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is likely done as astronomical tides continue to improve. - 2) Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding is likely done as astronomical tides continue to improve. Minor coastal flooding is ongoing along the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, as of this typing at 2 PM EDT. This should be the last of the coastal flooding for this multi-day event, as astronomical tides continue to come down. Really confident on this idea at the coast especially. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next rain chances return over the weekend. Ridging will continue to build through Saturday, keeping the warming trend around. Temperatures warm up a degree or two every day through Friday. Highs around 90F appear possible along and west of I-95 as early as Wednesday, with those chances solidifying more by Thursday and Friday (could potentially be 90-92F in some spots). Moisture parameters pick up as well, with dewpoints soaring into the 60s, and even into the lower 70s for the coastal areas Thursday through Saturday. Friday in particular could be the most hot and humid day of the week, with the heat index climbing up into the lower 90s in most areas (in October, mind you). Pattern starts to flip by Saturday. The heat ridge starts to push offshore, while a very broad trough pattern that stretches from near the upper Midwest all the way to New England helps to suppress the ridge southward. Weak shortwave energy breaks off the broad trough and will help produce scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Saturday, but nothing appears to be a washout at this time. These rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week, as part of the broad trough in the Ohio Valley amplifies and sweeps through the Southeast as a more organized frontal system. Still not expecting severe weather with this event. What is becoming more apparent is a significant cooldown coming early next week, where highs may only get into the 70s. Bring back a more legitimate fall! && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected initially through the even then VSBY restrictions are expected at most terminals generally between 06-13Z. Conditions may become IFR at times, thus included TEMPO groups for some variability in observations. Any FG/ST should begin to dissipate by around 14Z with VFR conditions prevailing again through 00Z Fri. Extended Forecast...Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture through the end of the week. Moderate risk for showers/storms starting Sat afternoon at all terminals with the potential for convection persisting at times through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Rather benign marine conditions expected through the first half of the weekend, with a gentle breeze that fluctuates a bit out of the E to S during the daytime, becoming a more variable light breeze at night. Winds strengthen very slightly up to a moderate breeze out of the E by Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Seas remain at 1-2 ft through Wednesday, with perhaps some 3 ft waves trying to sneak into the waters out 60 nm by Wednesday night. In between light wind chop, look for a persistent long period southeasterly swell at 10-14 seconds, and a secondary easterly swell at 8-10 seconds. Significant change starts building in on Monday, with a series of cold fronts picking up strengthen and sweeping through the waters. Winds back to the NE and rapidly increase up to a fresh breeze, with wind gusts perhaps flirting with Small Craft Advisory thresholds by late Monday. Seas start coming up towards 2-3 ft out 20 nm, up to 4 ft out 60 nm. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP KEY MESSAGES...IGB DISCUSSION...IGB AVIATION...SRP MARINE...IGB