707
FXUS62 KILM 291909
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes made for the afternoon forecast package.
Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue to ridge into the area through
the weekend with mostly dry conditions and residual marine
impacts expected. Rain chances will increase some the first
part of next week, mainly for coastal areas, followed by A
better rainfall chances Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to ridge into the
area through the weekend with mostly dry conditions and
residual marine impacts expected. Rain chances will increase
some the first part of next week, mainly for coastal areas,
followed by better rainfall chances Thursday.

Ridging aloft and exiting surface high/weakening ridge axis
will maintain dry conditions through the weekend. A second
surface high will ridge in from the north, then northeast by
early next week with increasing rain chances, especially for
coastal areas, given the development of a weak coastal trough.
By mid-week an area of low pressure will approach from the Deep
South while the surface ridge axis attempts to hold on across
the area. Eventually deeper moisture will overspread the area
Thursday into Friday bringing a better chance of rain across a
large portion of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts don`t
appear to be too significant based on ensembles with either
event. Moisture will remain limited with the coastal trough
nearby, and while Thursday`s rainfall may be more widespread
this system is expected to move by faster. Temperatures will be
above climo on Friday then highs at or just above normal this
weekend. Lows will remain above normal through the period.

The full moon was earlier in the week and astronomical levels
continue to drop. However, there is still the potential for
some coastal flooding especially downtown ILM with high tide
tomorrow. At the beaches the water levels with high tide will
be marginal as well, especially for the northeast SC beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Diurnal
cumulus may result in some TEMPO BKN CIGs however bases should
remain above any flight restrictions. There is some potential
for patchy fog developing overnight, but not widespread enough
to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Otherwise, light NE-Ely winds
will become N-NEly overnight into Friday.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sunday outside of possible
patchy fog Saturday morning. MVFR/IFR are possible Sunday night
into Monday morning with the next system.&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High pressure ridging across the area from
the NE will be replaced by another ridge from the N this weekend
which will lead to another ramp-up in NEly winds during
Saturday. Winds will likely exceed Small Craft thresholds across
the coastal waters with the potential for another long duration
Small Craft event. Much uncertainty exists by early next week
however maritime conditions will most likely not be favorable
through Tuesday given the resiliency of the fetch. While 4-7 ft
seas will be common across the coastal waters seas will be
steeper offshore aided by the fetch direction and the Gulf
Stream. Increasing chances for showers and possible a few
thunderstorms, especially for the offshore waters later this
weekend and the first part of the upcoming week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP