Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
359 FXUS62 KILM 190640 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 140 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Departing high pressure will lead to warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won`t arrive until this weekend with an approaching disturbance. Drier weather is expected behind the disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A relatively compact upper low will pass by well north of the area early today. This feature will push a surface cold front towards the region. Ahead of this boundary according to model guidance we are to get a significant temperatures boost in the pre-frontal SW flow regime even as mid cloud cover trends upwards slightly as there is a plethora of trailing voracity lobes this far south, well removed from the main upper low crossing PA. Assuming that the tightly clustered guidance is correct look for highs in the mid to upper 70s. What little ascent is provided by these weak ripples of PVA are seemingly out of phase enough for some significant drying above 700mb after 21Z to preclude any precip chances across the region, the moisture instead being confined well to our north. The front will waffle around just south of the area tonight but WNW flow aloft will continue to keep mid levels dry enough to preclude any precipitation. Even the 50-ish cloud cover in guidance may be overdone. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Zonal flow maintains warm and dry weather for most of the area on Thursday. A backdoor front will drop southward through eastern NC, but should stall across the area. Model trends have this front dipping a little farther south with each new run. However, ensembles are still quite noisy regarding the position of this front and resulting temperatures. Given the tight gradient in high temperatures north to south of the boundary, the Cape Fear region still has a chance at seeing lower 60s on Thursday as opposed to the upper 60s and lower 70s that are currently forecast. The stalled front will lift northward on Friday as southerly flow becomes reestablished. Areas south of the front may see some patchy fog on Friday morning. Better confidence for high temperatures on Friday: mid and upper 70s expect, with a few areas approaching 80 in northeastern SC. Moisture return will keep overnight lows mild; upper 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shortwave moving west to east over southern VA will be weakening as it approaches the northeastern NC and southeastern VA coast on Saturday morning. The cold front associated with a broad surface low will push through the area on Saturday. A few isolated showers are possible along the front on Saturday, especially during the morning. Ensembles probabilities indicate that QPF will be on the order of a few hundreths. While some instability does exist, dry air advection aloft will be gradually reducing this potential after midday (enough to be tempted by the removal of thunder chances completely). A secondary cold front moves through the region Saturday night. Another weak shortwave moving through the forecast area should bring a better punch of cooler air. Temperatures should be around 10 degrees cooler on Sunday. An upper low over the central US will introduce a significant amount of uncertainty for next week. The current forecast tries favors a low farther to the east over the southeastern US. This should provide warmer temperatures, but all solutions to this point have been inconsistent. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR generally expected. A disturbance passes by well to the north today and a cold front will approach. Winds remain out of the SW and cloud cover should increase slightly but not develop a CIG. If there is some uncertainty it`s that guidance appears to be pretty high in height with said clouds, generally at the cirrus level whereas forecast soundings show moisture in the MVFR realm (though again, SCT and not BKN). Behind the front tonight winds will be light and variable with a NE component dominating, if any. Extended Outlook... There is a low chance of late night/early morning MVFR/IFR visibility in ground fog Thursday morning, growing to a moderate chance on Friday morning. A low chance of spotty visibility issues will redevelop again Saturday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A cold front will approach from the NW today, being driven by an upper wave that passes by well to our north. As such dynamical forcing with the boundary will be minimal (as will it`s innate baroclinicity) for little fanfare associated with is passage other than veering wind beginning late this evening. In fact by the period`s end expect a full 180 degree change to NE. Wind waves remain capped at 2 ft, though the excessive veering will steepen the diminutive wave faces. Thursday through Sunday... Northeast winds behind the front will begin to weaken later in the day as high pressure to the northeast moves offshore and modifies. Return flow on Friday brings warm weather and increasing southerly winds through Saturday. Warm advection peaks on Saturday with gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon. Some patchy sea fog may exist both days with increasing winds lowering the potential on Saturday afternoon. A cold front moves offshore Saturday night. Northerly winds develop on Sunday, but poor cold air advection will keep winds around 15 knots and gusts around 20 knots. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/21