220
FXUS62 KILM 201051
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler
weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will
give way to cooler weather.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will be approaching from
the north on Tuesday while an upper trough approaches from the
northwest. The low level forcing coupled with the mid level height
falls will bring fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given
the drought situation QPF potential appears low unfortunately as the
bulk of the moisture and forcing will remain north of the area.
Wednesday also looks unsettled but less so as the front will be
pushed south of the area by a wedge coming in from the north
decreasing available moisture. Thereafter the upper low will cut off
east of the MidAtlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection
into the Southeast, possibly leading to a period of slightly below
normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR for much of the period. Storms off the coast this
morning have been dissipating before moving inshore. Anticipate
this trend continuing, although storms moving onshore will
become more likely south of MYR, where the surface boundary
lingers. Weak seabreeze will bring about an afternoon wind shift
along the coast, although speeds will remain under 10 kt.
Potential for MVFR fog Monday morning with best chances at
inland terminals. However, confidence is low with the amount
and thickness of cloud cover tonight playing a role in fog
formation. Boundary layer winds will certainly be light enough
for fog development.

Extended Outlook...Storms are most likely to cause flight
restrictions Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR/IFR ceilings possible
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A large area of weak pressure gradient off the southeast coast will
minimize winds, short period waves, and swell early in the forecast
period. A Tuesday night cold frontal passage should change
conditions considerably as high pressure surges in from the north
behind the boundary. By Wednesday N to NE winds will ramp up to
advisory levels, though the eventual strength of the wind will hinge
upon the currently uncertain strength and position of low pressure
that forms off the MidAtlantic coast. Seas will also increase to SCA
criteria with the same aforementioned uncertainty affecting just how
much into SCA criteria seas grow.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MBB