237
FXUS62 KILM 141317
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
917 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid weather along with numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected this weekend through Monday as a front remains stalled just
to our north. High pressure will expand across the Carolinas Tuesday
through Thursday with fewer thunderstorms and hotter temperatures
expected. The next front may arrive next Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Airmass characteristics remain very similar to yesterday, with
CAPE reaching 1500-2000 j/kg, LI of -5C, and PWAT just over 2".
Storms should be progressive with a 0-6 km mean wind of 230/19.
Overall severe risk remains low, however there will be the
potential for localized flooding, as stronger cells will be
capable of producing brief, torrential downpours. Biggest
question mark concerns where convective initiation will occur
first. CAMs are generally honing in on the Cape Fear region by
noon, but beyond that, further development will most likely rely
on mesoscale boundary interactions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Confidence is low as to when we will see convection over any one
spot today, but confidence is high that we will see continued
convective development in a very moist and unstable atmosphere.
Looking at soundings and moisture profiles, deep layer moisture
through much of the day will maintain pcp water values up over
2 inches. The steering flow should veer from SW to W through the
day driving convection eastward toward the coast. S-SW sfc winds
will be higher than yesterday with gusts up to 20 kts or so in
the aftn as gradient tightens a bit with front approaching the
Carolinas from the west. Temps in the low to mid 70s this
morning will reach into the 80s again today with dewpoint temps
in the 70s maintaining very warm and muggy conditions. Temps
tonight will be in the low to mid 70s again.

Area remains in deep SW-W flow between H5 ridge centered to our
S to SE, near the northern Bahamas and a deep trough moving
east from near the Tennessee valley Sat morning toward
Kentucky/West VA by Sun morning. Minor perturbations will
continue to track from SW to NE between these 2 systems. Axis of
best shortwave energy should shift south and east through
tonight and therefore should see convective development shifting
closer to the coast. Initiation will be due to sea breeze and
localized boundaries, plus differential heating. By tonight,
should see some drier air moving in from the west in the low to
mid levels above the sfc, and axis of best moisture should
shift near the coast or offshore. Overall, expect widespread
cloud cover and intermittent shwrs and tstms with potential for
brief very heavy rain and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The subtropical ridge will extend across Florida to south of
Bermuda. North of this ridge across the Carolinas, westerly upper
level flow will contain a number of subtle upper disturbances and at
least one not-so-subtle one. It`s the passage of this stronger
disturbance on Sunday where we`re focusing high forecast chances (60-
80 percent) for showers and thunderstorms.

An old front will remain stalled across Virginia or northernmost
North Carolina. Our airmass should stay warm, humid, and moderately
to strongly unstable with MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg surging to near 3000
J/kg both afternoons. SPC has areas closer to the front outlooked in
a "marginal" risk both days mainly for damaging wind. However even
this far south enough 0-6 km bulk shear (20 kt) may exist to create
organized multicell clusters with some potential for gusty winds.
700 mb winds forecast in the 20-25 kt range imply a healthy west to
east storm propagation vector.

Daytime temperatures aren`t an easy forecast as just a couple hours
of direct sun could send temps spiking into the 90s given 850 mb
temps near +18C and seasonally high sun angles. I`ve got upper 80s
to near 90 forecast for most areas. Nighttime lows should range from
73-77, warmest on the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Tuesday through Thursday the subtropical ridge should expand
northward off the Georgia and South Carolina coast. This, plus low
pressure developing across the Plains should help lift the old
stalled front back to the north. The steady stream of upper level
impulses should shift to our north allowing more sun and even hotter
temperatures to develop. Away from the seabreeze influence highs
should rise into the lower 90s Tuesday and mid 90s Wednesday and
Thursday. Combined with dewpoints likely to stay in the 73-76 range
even during mid afternoon mixing, heat indices could exceed 105
degrees -- especially on Wednesday and Thursday. We`ll add this
information to the Hazardous Weather Outlook and mention a Heat
Advisory is possible each of those days. Convection will become more
diurnal and scattered in nature with drier mid level conditions
expected.

By Thursday night into Friday the 00z GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF show
an upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes into New England,
driving the next cold front southeastward and into the Carolinas.
It`s possible this will be accompanied by an uptick in convection
although models aren`t showing any compelling increase in deep
moisture at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Persistence forecast in place for aviation concerns the next 24
hours. With a very moist and moderately unstable airmass in
place, expect convective development to continue. Tough to
pinpoint exact timing, but included Prob30 groups for mainly
MVFR ceilings and vsbys in thunderstorms. S-SW Winds will be a
bit stronger today with higher gusts in the afternoon. Overall
expect intermittent convective development through the day with
brief periods of sub-VFR in shwrs/tstms.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent
thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday night...Persistent SSW flow around Bermuda High
will continue but will increase up to 15 to 20 kts with some
higher gusts today as gradient increases with approach of low
pressure toward the Carolinas. The persistent and increasing
southerly push will drive seas up to 3 to 5 ft. A longer period
SE swell, up to 8 to 9 secs, will mix in.

Sunday through Thursday...A front will remain stalled across
Virginia or northern North Carolina Sunday through Monday, enhancing
local coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Bermuda high pressure
will maintain a moderate southwesterly wind across the area with
speeds generally around 15 knots with afternoon/evening increases to
near 20 knots possible. Seas should consist of a 5 second wind chop
with a smaller 8 second southeast swell beneath, totaling 3-4 feet
across the area.

Low pressure developing across the Plains states Tuesday and
Wednesday should lift the stalled front north and away from the
Carolinas. This should have the effect of reducing the number of
showers and thunderstorms, although with a hot and humid airmass in
place there will almost certainly be scattered storms developing
along the seabreeze each day and over the coastal waters late at
night. Southwest winds should continue through the period with
speeds generally in the 10-15 kt range except stronger nearshore
each day with the seabreeze.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ