513
FXUS61 KILN 121109
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
609 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cold air mass will gradually moderate through the
end of the week. Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of
the week. Above normal temperatures are expected by the weekend
along with a chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northwest mid level flow pattern with a sheared out vort dropping
east-southeast from the Great Lakes thru eastern Ohio. Any pcpn stays
well north of the area but a few clouds may clip ILN/s extreme
northeast counties. Otherwise, expect to observe abundant sunshine
mainly thin high level clouds. Temperatures warm some but still
remaining 2 to 6 degrees below normal. Expect highs to range from the
mid 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. Westerly wind gusts
between 25 and 30 mph will limit the perception of the warmer
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft to continue with surface ridge building into
the area Thursday. Dry conditions will persist through the short term
with only some high and mid level clouds spilling into the area.
There looks to be a period of thicker high clouds this evening and
then a second Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight to range from near 30
north to the lower/middle 30s south. Temperatures continue a slow
rise with highs on Thursday from 50 north to mid and upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will begin to build into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes late in the week into the start of the weekend. Westerly winds
will become more southwesterly during this period. Highs will begin
to lift into the 50s and perhaps into the lower 60s by Saturday.

A northern stream trough will quickly move through the Great Lakes
Saturday night into early Sunday. With the best forcing remaining to
the north of our area, expecting a relatively short window of
showers before clouds decrease around midday Sunday. High pressure
behind the cold front will bring cooler temperatures... though they
will likely still be around normal for middle November.

A mid-level trough will make its way into the Mississippi Valley to
close the period on Tuesday. This will give us a good chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions thru the TAF forecast period. Northwest mid
level flow pattern with a sheared out vort dropping east-southeast
from the Great Lakes thru eastern Ohio. A few VFR clouds between
4000-5000 feet will likely affect the central Ohio TAF sites with the
best coverage this morning. Otherwise...some high level clouds will
spill in from the northwest and thicken some this evening.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts will veer to the west today with
gusts up to 25 kts. A period of westerly LLWS occurs this evening as
the surface winds decrease to less than 10 kts and a 40 kt jet
pivots thru the area.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR