


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
900 FXUS61 KILN 161758 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through Friday, offering continued dry weather conditions. A cold front will move through the area over the weekend bringing showers and possibly some thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds on Sunday. High pressure and dry conditions return for Monday. Another chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday with the approach of the next frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Amplified mid and upper level flow with a full latitude ridge axis building to the Great Lakes overnight into Friday. Surface high pressure to build slowly east to a position centered over eastern Ohio. Dry airmass with mainly clear skies expected overnight, with only some thin high level clouds spilling into the west late. With a dry airmass, light winds, and little cloud cover, temperatures will be cool overnight. Some frost development in areas east and north of Columbus is likely overnight. Have issued a frost advisory for this threat. Lows tonight to range from the mid/upper 30s northeast to the lower/middle 40s southwest. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sharp full latitude mid and upper level ridge to build into the region Friday. Surface high pressure east of the region will result in a southeasterly low level flow - allowing for a slow warming trend. Expect an increase in mid and high level clouds during the day. The dry airmass will also allow for a large diurnal range with temperatures warming to highs from the mid/upper 60s east to around 70 west. Southerly flow with a few WAA showers possible across the far north late Friday night. With a dry low level if any showers or sprinkles develop they will fall from a mid deck. Clouds and WAA will keep temperatures mild Friday night with lows from the mid/upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Digging shortwave energy over the Plains will cause development of surface low pressure near Dallas, Texas on Saturday. This low will strengthen and lift quickly northeast toward the Great Lakes Saturday night. Ahead of the low, southerly flow will increase, causing a rapid warming and moistening of the boundary layer. Latest guidance shows dewpoints rising to near 60 while highs on Saturday approach (or perhaps exceed) 80. This is a near record high for Columbus (83). Suppose we can`t rule out a stray shower during the day... but most of the showers and storms will be delayed until Saturday evening into Saturday night. Winds aloft will steadily increase as the mid-level energy approaches. Surface CAPE will likely stay in the 100-200J/kg range while 850mb winds rise to around 40 knots late Saturday night. In any convection that occurs overnight, gusty winds will be possible. However, the best wind energy will likely mix down to the surface behind the cold front on Sunday. Have nudged wind gusts upward toward the NBM 90th percentile Sunday afternoon in collaboration with neighboring offices. Uncertainty remains due to differences in intensities among ensemble systems as well as differences in location of the low center. Will need to monitor the potential need for a wind advisory. In addition to the gusty winds, showers and perhaps an isolated storm are likely to develop Sunday as the 850mb temperatures fall to between zero and five degrees Celsius. After a brief period of high pressure on Monday, another quick- moving low will move into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Intensity of this low is a bit more uncertain, but the potential is there for gusts in the range of 25-30 mph during the afternoon as another cold front shifts east through the area. Behind this system, upper level troughing is likely to sag south into the Ohio Valley. This will keep the temperatures cool to close the period. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the lone exception being some river valley BR/FG at KLUK, which will produce some IFR/LIFR VSBYs in the several hours around daybreak. Otherwise, some cirrus will spill into the region during the daytime Friday. Light NE flow will be maintained through the daytime before becoming light/VRB overnight. Flow will go more out of the SE at 6-8kts during the daytime Friday. OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt possible Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible Sunday into Sunday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ046-056-065-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...