602
FXUS61 KILN 251700
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
100 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid conditions return on Sunday along with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure progresses east of the Ohio Valley tonight
bringing an end to the stretch of cool and dry conditions from this
past week. Warm and humid air returns on southerly flow west of the
departing high to start the week while upper level northwesterly
flow persists. A couple periods of showers and storms are possible
to start the week.

The first chance for showers and storms is on Sunday night. A
cluster of storms/MCS may form in the Great Lakes region Sunday
evening before diving south overnight. The best instability remains
to our west which would likely favor any storms that do form diving
south into Indiana and Illinois out of Michigan. However, the
presence of some instability over our area allows at least a low end
chance for precipitation. The severe risk with any storms Sunday
night is marginal since MLCAPE should be fairly limited under a
nocturnal inversion despite ample shear being present for storm
organization.

The second, and much higher, chance for storms is on Monday and
Monday night when clusters of storms/MCSs may form to our northwest
ahead of an approaching cold front before diving south into the Ohio
Valley. Precise convective details are highly uncertain since the
background environment over the region will likely be characterized
by moderate to high instability and sufficient shear for organized
convection with little in the way of organized forcing. Storm to
storm interactions and lingering outflow boundaries from antecedent
convection will have large impacts on how Monday/Monday night plays
out. At the time, the most likely timing for storms over the Ohio
Valley is Monday night. However, convection that occurs on Sunday
and Sunday night could easily impact the forecast during the day on
Monday. A damaging wind threat exists given the potential for
organized clusters of storms/MCSs Monday into Monday night.

In addition, hot and humid conditions on Monday could lead to the
heat index reaching the 95-100 degree range if convection does not
occur early in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through at least 0600z as some mid and lower
level clouds build in from the west. Ceilings may eventually lower
into the MVFR category around 0800z or 1000z. Some lifting and
scattering of ceilings occurs Sunday afternoon. The sites most
likely to experience MVFR ceilings on Sunday morning are the sites
along and west of I-75.

Light southwesterly/westerly winds continue until around sunset
before becoming light and variable overnight. Light westerly flow
develops on Sunday. There is a slight chance for showers and storms
Sunday night.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday night and then again Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Campbell
AVIATION...Campbell